Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170613

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 1111 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Snowfall intensity decreasing across the southern sangres/wets and
I-25 corridor, and have let remaining advisory expire on schd at
11 pm. Still some -shsn or --sn the next few hours as precip
winds down, with any additional accums less than an inch.

UPDATE Issued at 501 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Updated to for expiration of winter weather advisory over the
southwest mountains, with only minor adjustments made elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

...Moderate snowfall will continue for the Wets and Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and Southern I-25 Corridor through the evening...

Snow is winding down as the upper low pulls away to the
east...however trailing upper trof energy and weak circulation
center back across southwest CO...will keep snow going across
southern sections of the forecast area through the overnight hours.
High res models show snowfall concentrating mainly south of highway
50 across the eastern slopes of the Sangre De Cristo mountains...Wet
mountains...southern I-25 corridor and adjacent plains through the
evening hours before quickly winding down after midnight.  Other
area of light to moderate snow will persist across the southwest
mountains and San Luis valley though snowfall rates should be
lighter out that way.  Have already extended winter weather
advisories out until midnight for the southeast mountains...and
until 5 PM for the southwest mountains.  Lower elevations could see
some moderate snowfall at times...especially south of highway
50...but with temperatures hovering around freezing or slightly
warmer...this should keep additional accumulations light enough to
minimize impact due to melting.

Temperatures tonight will be cooler than the past couple
nights...though with extensive cloud cover persisting...have warmed
them up a couple degrees from previous grid package.

Tuesday should see clearing skies...dry weather...and a return of
warmer temperatures. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tuesday night-Thursday...North to northeast flow aloft across the
region Tuesday night transitions to more west to southwest through
the day on Thursday, as cut off energy across the southern Rockies
slowly lifts north and east into the High Plains Wednesday, with
short wave ridging building into the region on Thursday, ahead of
another eastern pacific system digging across Pac NW and into the
Great Basin. This pattern will keep the area generally dry, with
temperatures warming back to above seasonal averages by Thursday.

Thursday night-Monday...Great Basin trough lifts out across the
Central Rockies and into the Central High Plains through the day
Friday with another trough progged to dig across the Rockies
Saturday and Saturday night. Operational models having trouble
resolving location of digging energy phasing with southern stream
energy which mostly affects precipitation chances across the eastern
Plains on Saturday. At any rate, should see good chances of
precipitation across the ContDvd Thursday night and Friday, with a
few possible showers and slightly cooler temperatures across the
rest of the area. Should see another shot of precipitation over the
ContDVD on Saturday, with the potential for a quick shot of
precipitation for the rest of the area through Saturday night. A
brief respite in precipitation and slightly warmer temperatures
looks to be in the offing on Sunday, as short wave ridging builds
across the region, ahead of another eastern Pacific system moving
across the Great Basin on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

As the upper low pressure system continues to pull away to the
east, conditions will generally be improving across the forecast
area over the next 24 hrs. There still exists an area of low
clouds and very light snow across portions of the eastern plains,
which should persist through about 12z.

KALS: MVFR to VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs, though some
patchy IFR conditions are possible between 10z-16z.

KCOS: VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs.

KPUB: IFR to LIFR conditions due to low clouds, fog and light snow
currently should continue until 10z-12z, then VFR conditions the
remainder of the forecast period.




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