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000
FXUS65 KPUB 241105
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A MILD DAY...

CURRENTLY...

TRANQUIL WX ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE
PRIMARILY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY WEST WINDS WERE NOTED AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
M20 TO M30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. K1V6...CANON CITY...WAS THE WARMEST
WITH A TEMP OF 35. NO REAL `COLD" AREAS WERE NOTE ON THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THE TRAPPED VALLEYS...THE GUNNISON AND SAN LUIS...WERE
QUITE COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SLV AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE GUNNISON VALLEY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WEAK FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE
NEXT 24H BECOMING MODEST NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AS
A 100 KNT NORTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SENSIBLE WX CHANGES WITH THIS INCOMING JET
EXPECT THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 30S TO L40S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE S MTNS AND GAP AREAS WHERE
G23 KNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE GAP AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
M50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE CANON CITY/WETMORE REGIONS.

WE MAY SEE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE C MTNS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS INCREASING MSTR MOVES INTO THE C MTN REGION. ANY ACCUMS
WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE M/U20S MOST PLAINS.
30S WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS. SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR IN
THE GUNNISON AND SAN LUIS VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO BY MONDAY. EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE BY BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WARM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOVES NORTHEAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
SPREADING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING
OFF ON SNOW WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER DEPARTING
THE UPPER ENERGY FROM THE AREA WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES
COME IN BY FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS TWO SYSTEMS...ONE DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ONE WRAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM...AND KEEPS A BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH