Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Typical crop of afternoon convection sprouting over the mountains
and along the NM border today as modest monsoon plume and weak upper
energy remain in place across the area. Forecast for the remainder
of the afternoon into the evening will be the same as the past few
days, with scattered storms drifting NE across most of the area
before activity begins to wane after sunset. Will hold on to a few
tsra past midnight over the far eastern plains, as storms may linger
along/ahead of weak surface trough forecast to stretch from near TAD
to LAA by 06z. On Sat, upper ridge flattens as short wave trough
race eastward along the US/Canadian border. Cold front will drop
south through the plains during the afternoon, with a weak upslope
surge developing late in the day as low level winds become E-NE
along and east of the mountains. Should see a modest uptick in tsra
chances over the eastern mountains Sat afternoon with weak easterly
gradient, with best chances on the plains along and south of the
Arkansas River near the frontal boundary. Convection could be
slightly stronger over the plains than the past few days with
increased moisture/instability, though shear again looks too weak to
support anything more than a brief marginally severe storm or two.
Front likely arrives too late to have much impact on max temps, with
readings on the plains only 1-3 degf cooler than today, while
mountains/high valleys drift downward a degf or two.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period with hot and active weather expected to continue.

Saturday night-Sunday night...the upper level high will shift
towards the Four Corners as a shortwave trough moves across the
northern tier Saturday night into Sunday morning. With the high
centered near the Four Corners, westerly flow will develop aloft.
Weak impulses moving within the westerly flow and moist upslope
flow at the surface will set the stage for an uptick in
thunderstorm activity Sunday. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible Sunday afternoon across Teller/El Paso counties and
north and east of Highway 50. Storms will initially develop across
the higher terrain during the late morning to early afternoon
hours, before moving across the plains.

MLCAPE values are expected to be in the 1500-2000 J/KG, but shear
looks to be the limiting factor with 0-6 km bulk shear vectors in
the 25-30 knot range. Buffer profiles indicate a fairly limited hail
threat at this time with marginal values of CAPE in the hail growth
zone. Convective parameters point towards the potential of a few
convective multicell clusters capable of producing heavy rainfall
and strong winds. With 850-300 mb mean wind vectors aoa 10 knots and
PWATs approaching 1.5", slowly moving storms will be need to be
monitored closely for flash flooding concerns. High temperatures
will run close to average for most locales with low to mid-90s
expected across the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...the upper level high pressure system is
forecast to begin building northward during the early portion of
the work week. Two more disturbance under the upper ridge will
track across the region helping bring continue showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Expect convective initiation over the
mountains both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, with activity
transitioning across the plains during the evening and overnight
hours. Surface conditions will be highly dependent on outflow
boundaries. The latest guidance suggests a bit better upslope flow
due to residual outflow boundaries, along with pooled moisture
along the front range. This will keep the potential for locally
heavy rainfall in the forecast, especially for the eastern
mountains out into the I-25 corridor. Modest instability and weak
shear will likely keep storms from becoming severe, however, one
or two may approach severe limits with hail and winds. Flash
flooding will need to be monitored, especially over burn scars and
areas that see heavy rainfall over the weekend.

Wednesday through Friday...the upper pattern will begin to shift
with high pressure building into the Great Basin. This will force
the monsoonal tap west over California, and bring northerly flow
across Colorado around the upper high. Residual moisture across
the region will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains Wednesday and Thursday, but lack of upper level support
and weak steering flows should keep storms anchored to the terrain
with little movement into the plains. By Friday, models suggest
energy rounding the upper high will drop southeast across
Colorado. This should bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms to the region, with better chances across the plains
by Friday evening.

Temperatures will remain hot across the region for the extended
period. Highs will generally be in the 90s across the lower
elevations. Lukinbeal/Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Mainly VFR conditions to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours with monsoonal moisture still in place across the region.
A weak front will move across the eastern plains through the
morning with upslope flow developing at COS and PUB aft 18Z.
Should see storms developing across the higher terrain through the
late morning and spread across the adjacent plains into the
afternoon and evening. However, will keep VCTS in tafs at this


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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