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000
FXUS65 KPUB 061744
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1044 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

...CONTINUED COLD...

A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY AS FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EJECTING TROF TO THE EAST...AND
RELOADING TROF TO THE WEST.  STRATUS IS FORECAST TO THIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY...SO WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES...BUT THINK SOME AMOUNT OF STRATUS WILL LINGER.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUPER COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH NEGATIVE
READINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING
TAKES PLACE...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT READINGS TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS CURRENT READINGS OUT EAST ARE ALREADY WARMER THAN MAV
GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY.  EVEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE WARMER
THAN THE PLAINS WHICH IS LOCKED IN UNDER ARCTIC AIRMASS. SPOTTY WIND
CHILL ADVISORY VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS ARE FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER BOUND 5 MPH
THRESHOLD. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ASIDE FROM SOME
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING LOW
FORECAST.  A QUICK PLUNGE IN TEMPS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN WARM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT (ESP FAR EASTERN PLAINS)
AS CLOUD COVER MOVES IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.  COULD BE FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY VALUES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER VALUES LOOK TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO HOIST
AN ADVISORY...SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE IN.  GENERALLY
KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR NOW.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH COLD WEATHER AND PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WARMER DRY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS STRENGTHEN AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DROP IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS
IS A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE ANTICIPATED. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS. AREAS WEST OF I-25 WILL
LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOWFALL
COMING TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE LESS WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF UP TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART
RANGE INTO EL PASO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE MOST
OF THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BITTERLY COLD WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP TO OR UNDER ZERO DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN STATES
WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM WITH
30S ON TUESDAY...AND 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.

AT KCOS...WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS HAS PUSHED BACK TO THE
TERMINAL AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...AND EXPECT
MVFR STRATUS TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AIRPORT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MVFR STRATUS
AS WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST.

AT KPUB...EDGE OF STRATUS HAS ERODED TO JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...AND MUCH LIKE KCOS...EXPECT WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS TO STAY NEAR THE AIRPORT THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ060-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN