Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1043 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018


Clear skies were over the region at 2 pm. The low clouds which were
over the San Luis valley (SLV) earlier have cleared. Temps were cold
across the region with nearly all temps at or below freezing. The
warmest temps were actually in the 8-10 thousand foot range were
readings were in the lower to mid 30s. Over the plains temps where
in the 20s to around 30F, and in the SLV they were in the 20s. Winds
everywhere were quite light.


a clear and cold night in store for the region once again, although
it will not be as cold as this morning. Over the plains, coldest
temps will be over the far east plains, especially areas along and
north of Lamar where min temps will be around 0F. Higher up on the
divides, temps will be a bit warmer, with readings around 10F. The
SLV will be below zero. MTNs will be the warmest. In matter of fact,
the low temps on top of Pikes Peak is fcst to be warmer than
Colorado Springs. without saying, the warm air aloft is moving over
the region.

The one concern I have for tonight is the potential for fog in the
SLV as there is quite a bit of remnant moisture in the valley and
with relatively high Tds in the valley, fog will be possible.


Temps should warm up quite quickly tomorrow across all of the region
and expect max temps to reach in the U40s/L50s across the plains,
with 40s in the valleys. Will probably see some more high clouds
over the region, however it should be predominantly mostly sunny. A
weak boundary will come down the plains tomorrow shifting the winds
to a more upslope component towards sunset over the lower
elevations. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Wednesday night through Friday...a ridge of high pressure laying
across southern CA and the western US will gradually slide east
towards Colorado, ahead of the next upper low pressure system. This
will translate to dry conditions and gradual warming across the
forecast area through Fri, with increasing downslope winds and very
warm temps expected on Fri. Look for high temps in the 40s to mid
50s for the high valleys and 60s for the plains on Thu, then 50s for
the high valleys and 60s to lower 70s for the plains on Fri. Due to
the warm and dry conditions, combined with increasing winds, the
potential for critical fire weather conditions has increased for Fri
but has not become elevated enough for a highlight at this time.

Saturday and Sunday...The next incoming low pressure system moves
onshore across the West Coast Fri night, with snow developing along
the Continental Divide early Sat morning. Pcpn is forecast to remain
over the mts and high valleys through midday Sat, then as the sfc
cold front drops south across the e plains Sat aftn showers will
then spread across the plains. At the same time, the upper trough
axis is expected to begin moving across the state, finally clearing
the eastern border of Colorado late Sun night. Pcpn will then
quickly taper off overnight Sun into Mon. Temps are expected to warm
into 40s for the high valleys and upper 40s to near 60F for the
plains on Sat, then 30s to lower 40s for most areas on Sun. Latest
model runs have slowed the onset of this system slightly, especially
the latest EC, so any further delay may push critical fire weather
conditions into Sat.

Monday and Tuesday...Temporary ridging across the state early Mon,
then another broad upper trough brings isolated snow showers back to
the Continental Divide and central mts late Mon aftn through Tue.
Temps are forecast to warm slightly, with highs in the 40s to around
50F for most areas both days. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions still seem likely to develop at KALS though
high res models suggest this may hold off until 10-11z. Have
delayed the onset by an hour to account. Otherwise it should burn
off by 18z Wed with VFR conditions and light winds expected. KCOS
and KPUB will remain VFR over the next 24 hours with winds under
15 kts. -KT




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