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000
FXUS65 KPUB 120528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF UPSLOPE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE AREA. SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE FROM WEST OF PUB SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...SO
HIGHEST POPS THERE AS WELL. SOME SFC QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG QG DESCENT ALOFT AS THE
MAIN ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX THIS EVENING. WL CONTINUE WITH THE BLOW DUST ADVISORY THROUGH
7 PM THIS EVENING.  BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAKER AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEARLY CLOSED OFF
OVER SRN NEVADA. SFC GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WEAKER AS WELL SO DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER FOR WEDNESDAY. DRY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS TIME AROUND. WEAK LOW THAT FORMS ON THE
END OF TODAYS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE ON THE NORTH EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY.
TWEAKED THE FORECAST FOR MORE CLOUDS/POPS IN THESE PLACES...BUT
OVERALL STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION. WIND SURGE
LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT...SO HOPEFULLY NOT MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER/BLOWING DUST THREAT.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...PROBABLY WITH
SIMILAR OR EVEN LESS IMPACT. TIMING IS PROBABLY SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
MUCH IN THIS TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE WARMER MONDAY...THEN THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FOR TUESDAY...OR IT COULD STILL BE
DRY AND WARM. NOT A LOT OF FLOW IN THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE A DAY OR TWO THAT ARE WARM AND DRY...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL BE VERY WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SOME MID LVL CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...HODANISH