Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 041736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER THE
PAC NW.  THIS WL ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE BRINGING MONSOON
MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  THE BEST MSTR WL REMAIN OVER THE MTN AREAS
TODAY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED.  ONCE
AGAIN...DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE
SW MTNS...SRN SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THRU THE
NIGHT...SO WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG INDUCED LEE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...THOUGH THE MODERATE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
DISTRICT

SUNDAY-MONDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE PROGGED WITH MONDAY LEADING TO POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES IN MODELS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH
THE LATEST GFS ENTRAINING MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHERE AS THE LATEST EC KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
DESERT SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...MODELS TO SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE TO WORK WITH IS STILL TOO BE DETERMINED. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP FOR LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE TAF SITES FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY.

KCOS...VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITE.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 22 UTC AND 24 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KPUB...VFR NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSRA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KALS...ISOLD/SCTD TSRA IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KALS TAF WILL BE FOG.
GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BROKEN DECK LASTING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...I DECIDED NOT TO PUT FOG IN THE KALS TAF FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IF IT DOES RAIN AT KALS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND IT DOES CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...THEN DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH


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