Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATION DATA INTO THE FORECAST
AND MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHEST
TOTALS STILL LOOK GOOD OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...WITH AROUND
AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. MODELS STILL INDICATING
THE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. THE
LATEST RUNS ARE A BIT DRIER...COMPARED TO THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. REGIONAL INFRARED
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO THE WET MOUNTAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...GREAT BASIN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHED SOUTH WITH
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD. THEN FLOW EVOLVES TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE. IN THE EASTERN
PART OF OUR CWA...A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...BRINGING SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
LEE SLOPES KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY...SNOWFALL PICKS UP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS. THE FLOW IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SAWATCH
RANGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEARS THAT THOUGHT OUT. AFTER
COLLABORATING/COORDINATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORS...OPTED TO GO WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOSQUITO
RANGE (ZONE 58) AND THE EASTERN SAWATCH RANGE (ZONES 60) AND THE
LA GARITAS (ZONE 66). THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
GFS...GAVE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS...SO WENT WITH A (LOW END) WINTER STORM WARNING. REGARDLESS
OF THE FINAL AMOUNTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ACROSS WOLF CREEK
PASS CHRISTMAS DAY...AS WELL AS ACROSS MONARCH PASS...AND
TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES. MEANWHILE...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE BALMY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 50S. -TLM-

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

...CHRISTMAS DAY STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY EVENING...

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH
THURSDAY AND THEN DROPPING SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW THEN OPENS UP FRIDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS REMAINING
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH
IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. INITIALLY...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...BUT BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE COLD FRONT RACING DOWN THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING (ENTERING NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY RIGHT AROUND 00Z FRIDAY). TRAVELERS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW DEVELOP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...TELLER COUNTY AND
THE RAMPART RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A MORE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROF.

THE TROF AXIS GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO HAVE A SHORT BREAK FROM SNOW CHANCES...BUT AS
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS DEPICTS THE H5 CLOSED LOW DIGGING
WELL SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN AZ...WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS UTAH/COLORADO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS FAR AS
SNOW CHANCES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE YEAR. SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/26.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KCOS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING.
SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. IFR OR LIFR LIKELY AFTER THIS 06Z/26.

CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTER 22Z/25 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

KPUB WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LILEY
SEE LOWER CIGS/SNOW AFTER 06Z/26TH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ060-066.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH


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