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000
FXUS65 KPUB 272054
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
254 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

An upper level ridge will remain over the area tonight and
Wednesday, as an upper level low slowly  moves from northern Baja CA
into southern CA.  Dry weather is expected through Wed morning, but
a slight increase in moisture is expected Wed, with the potential
for some isolated showers/tstms along the Continental Divide in the
afternoon.

Low temps tonight should mostly be in the 30s and 40s, with around
freezing again in the Alamosa area.  Highs on Wed will be above
average by about 5 degrees or slightly more.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Models in decent agreement through the weekend with some
differences as we head into early next week.

Wednesday night into Sunday...a nearly stationary pattern is
forecast to develop, with an upper low sitting over the Ohio
Valley and high pressure building over the central plains. This
will force southwesterly flow across Colorado for the next several
days. An upper disturbance currently over Baja will begin to
advect moisture northward and send embedded energy in the flow
into Colorado.

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
night and Thursday along the continental divide. As moisture
increases and stronger energy works northward, the area should see
an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday into
Saturday. Initial development will be over the mountains,
spreading east into the eastern plains both Friday and Saturday
evenings. Current operational solutions tend to favor areas over
the Palmer Divide, northeast into northeastern Colorado, with less
coverage as you head south. Snow levels will remain high through
this period, with an inch or two of snow possible above 10 kft
through weekend.

Temperatures will remain warm across the region with afternoon
highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s over the lower
elevations.

Monday into Tuesday...the upper level pattern transitions early
next week as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest shifts
east into the northern plains. Models are handling this trough
differently, with the GFS solution north, while the ECMWF drops it
further south across Colorado. Depending on where the upper trough
sets up, southern Colorado will likely see increased chances for
stronger westerly winds along with cooler temperatures.
Precipitation chances will likely be confined to the mountains,
especially the central mountains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours as the upper
level ridge remains over the area.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28