Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Rather vigorous upper wave moving onshore along the Pacific Coast
today, with high level cloud cover spreading across Colorado ahead
of the system. Precip still lagging fairly far to the west over
UT/AZ, and it looks doubtful that much if any shower activity will
reach the Continental Divide until this evening. Overnight, precip
will spread eastward over the mountains, with a period of rain/snow
likely over the higher peaks of the central and southwest mountains,
mainly 06z-12z. Could see a few inches of snow over the very highest
elevations, mainly above 11-12k feet. Eastern mountains and interior
valleys will see some isolated showers overnight, though precip
looks light away from the divide. Mins will be rather mild all areas
with increasing winds and blanket of clouds across the state.

On Tuesday, upper wave pushes quickly eastward into the plains,
taking most upward forcing for precip with it. Mountains, especially
higher peaks, could see some lingering showers through the day as
upper levels are slow to dry out, with central mountains looking
most favored. Small window for perhaps some sprinkles/virga on the
plains early in the day as wave moves overhead, though will keep
pops confined to higher terrain of the Palmer Divide as low levels
look too dry elsewhere. Breezy west winds behind the trough will
lead to fairly deep mixing through the first half of the day, and
expect rather warm max temps on the plains before weak cold front
shifts winds to the north and brings some slightly cooler air to the
area late.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The extended forecast continues to feature warm temperatures and
generally dry conditions across Southern Colorado. There are some
differences late in the forecast period, but overall, models have
been consistent with the forecast evolution.

Tuesday night...a fast moving upper shortwave trough will be
moving east across Southern Colorado and into the central Plains.
Precipitation looks to remain confined to the mountain areas,
especially the Continental Divide during the evening hours, before
dissipating overnight. More isolated activity is possible during
the evening over the Eastern Mountains and Teller County, but
models are indicating these will not amount to much. Snow levels
look to remain high with an additional inch or so above 12 kft for
the Continental Divide.

Wednesday through Friday...high pressure over the desert southwest
will build north and persist for several days. Expect dry
conditions across the region. Temperatures will be on the warmer
side with 70s to lower 80s for the plains. Winds look to remain
light through the period. upper disturbance is forecast to pass to our north
on Saturday. This will likely lead to a few showers over the
mountains, with models favoring the central mountains. Winds may
be a bit breezy across the higher elevations as well. Still not
much cold air, so snow levels will remain high with minor
accumulations possible over 12 kft. A weak cold front will cross
the plains with a few degrees of cooling. Highs will top out in
the 70s for the lower elevations.

Sunday and Monday...high pressure will rebuild ahead of a storm
system on the west coast. Flow aloft will transition southwesterly
with an upper disturbance ejecting across the Great Basin,
northeast into Montana. Stronger winds will spread across the
region by Monday which may lead to elevated fire weather
conditions across the plains. Showers will likely be possible by
Monday over the Central Mountains. Continued warm temperatures are
forecast over the plains with 70s for highs.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

TAF sites will continue VFR tonight and Tuesday, with gradually
lowering VFR cigs through tonight. Could see a light -shra around
KALS 09z-15z as moisture increases, though cigs and vis should stay
VFR. Could also see a few sprinkles near KCOS 10z-15z, though chance
looks too low to include in the taf. Over the mountains, moisture
increases this evening with areas of IFR cigs developing along the
continental divide after 03z and continuing overnight as rain and
snow showers develop. On Tue, a few -shra and areas of clouds will
linger over the higher peaks during the first half of the day, with
clouds diminishing in the afternoon.




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