825
FXUS65 KPUB 142011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible across our plains today,
  with the primary threat being damaging winds gusting to 60
  mph.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow as well, with
 primary threats being excessive rainfall and localized flash
 flooding, along with strong winds and hail.

- Drier and warmer conditions arrive for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently..

Satellite and radar imagery depict lots of showers and mostly weak
thunderstorm activity across the high country as of 2pm, with
possibly a stronger storm or two over the southern San Luis Valley.
A few storms have pushed off the terrain and into the southern I-25
corridor this hour, with new convection looking to possibly get
going over El Paso County shortly as well. Temperatures are in mid
70s to mid 80s across the plains. Dewpoints range from the low 40s
on our far eastern plains to upper 20s near the mountains. Winds are
mostly westerly.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the rest
of this afternoon and this evening along a boundary that is working
its way across our plains, as well as across the high country. The
primary concern with today`s storms continues to be damaging winds.
Forecast soundings still show a deep layer of dry air at the surface
and inverted V profiles. Meso analysis paints an area of 1400 J/Kg
of DCAPE across the Lower Arkansas River Valley from around 5pm to
7pm this evening, which seems to be the most likely timeframe to see
gusty outflows from storms in this area today. Gusts from 50 to 60
mph are likely with any stronger storms that move into this area
later this afternoon and into this evening. Once the sun goes down,
expecting storms to weaken as they push east. Expecting showers and
storms to come to an end just after midnight at the latest across
most locations, though increased post-frontal moisture and cooler
temperatures will linger into tomorrow.

Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night..

After Tuesday`s initial cold frontal passage, we will be cooler,
more moist, and more unstable for our Wednesday. We are again left
between two interacting systems, with a low beginning to make its
way onshore over the southern coast of California, and a trough
passing to our north. Another cold front looks to push south across
our plains throughout the afternoon hours, which looks to spark
another round of showers and thunderstorms on our plains.
Wednesday`s storms look to be more efficient rainmakers, with
forecast qpf anywhere from 0.10 from 0.30 painted across our entire
forecast area for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening as better
moisture continues to stream in towards our area. Both EPS and GEFs
ensemble members show PWATs at around 120% to 160% of normal across
a majority of our area as well, with GEFs members showing some hot
spots of nearly 200% or normal over our southern Sangres, the San
Juans, and Fremont County for tomorrow. The WPC has our plains
outlined for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for tomorrow.
The SPC also has our far southeastern plains outlined for a marginal
risk for severe storms tomorrow. With high res model guidance
suggesting SBCAPE ranging around 500-1000 J/kg, DCAPE ranging around
700-1000 J/kg, and steepening lapse rates, current thinking is that
primary threats with storms tomorrow will be excessive rainfall and
localized flash flooding, along with strong wind gusts to 50 mph,
and quarter size hail, mainly across our far southeastern plains.
Daytime high temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler, with most
locations topping out in the 70s for the lower Arkansas River
Valley, 60s elsewhere for the plains and for mountain valleys, and
50s for higher terrain locations. Showers and thunderstorms will be
scattered to numerous over the high country for tomorrow, with snow
chances remaining limited to elevations above 11,000ft. New snow
accumulations are expected to be very limited for tomorrow, though
Pikes Peak could manage to see a couple of inches of new snow
Wednesday Night. Instability and chances for severe storms on our
plains will wane quickly once we lose daytime heating, though rain
showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday,
especially south of Highway 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Models continue to be in good agreement through much of the
extended period, with differences by late this weekend into
early next week.  A shift from wetter conditions to drier
conditions is forecast by Friday and prevailing into the weekend.
Weak embedded disturbances in the flow will likely lead to a
few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend into early next week. The next upper storm system looks
to move into the region by Sunday, but guidance is struggling
with how quickly and how strong the upper system will be as it
ejects across the Rockies.

Thursday...an upper shortwave will continue to dive south across
southern Colorado on Thursday. Northeasterly upslope flow
behind a cold front looks to shift southward during the morning
hours, with showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains, down into the Raton Mesa region. The upper
system will progress southward through the afternoon, with
precipitation coming to an end by Thursday evening. Given the
PWAT values remaining elevated and upslope flow into the
mountains and Raton Mesa, these showers will be efficient
precipitation makers. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible back west over the Continental Divide during
the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures on Thursday look
to be in the 60s across the San Luis Valley, and 60s to mid 70s
across the Plains.

Friday and Saturday...weak ridging aloft will spread eastward across
Colorado with temperatures warming each day. Highs will reach
into the 70s and 80s, with a few locations out east approaching
90 degrees. An upper system will pass to the north on Saturday,
which will send a weak cold front across the Plains. Drier air
across the region should help keep things dry, even with the
frontal passage. A few showers and thunderstorms could be
possible both Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and
evening hours, but confidence in occurrence is low at this time.


Sunday into Tuesday...models agree that some sort of upper
trough will impact the region during this period. Most guidance
has the parent upper low dropping south into the west coast
Monday into Tuesday. But there are differences in upper system
strength. Ahead of the upper low, flow looks to return
southwesterly across Colorado. Embedded energy in the flow looks
to bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms to the
mountain areas, and perhaps into the adjacent plains.
Temperatures also look to remain warm, with 70s and 80s across
the region. Southwesterly flow aloft would also mean higher
potential for strong winds across the San Luis Valley and
Eastern Plains. Did not stray from the NBM guidance again today
given the uncertainty in the overall upper pattern evolution.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected at all three TAF sites
for the next 24 hours. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area today, with chances for storms moving
within the vicinity possible for all three stations, with the
highest likelihood at KCOS and KALS. The most likely window for
thunderstorms on station at KCOS will be from around 20Z to 23Z this
afternoon. If storms do move over station, a period of MVFR
visibilities and erratic wind gusts to 40kt will be possible. Mid-
level cloud cover is expected to clear overnight, but will increase
again tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR