Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 072127
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS ALL
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...

WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS HAS HAMPERED HEATING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS
AFTERNOON.  WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.  AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD THEY SHOULD ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS...THEREFORE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED POPS CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-25 FOR NOW.  ONCE
AGAIN...VARIOUS MODEL RUNS KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME.  THINK THE NAM12 AND GFS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE AREAL
EXTENT...AND PREFER THE SOLN OFFERED UP BY THE HIGH RES ARW AND NMM
WHICH KEEP MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.  EXPECT THAT PERSISTENT STRATUS
WILL WILL LOWER AND SPREAD EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  MAY SEE A REPEAT OF THE FOG ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF ACROSS UT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS WILL
BREAK EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR WITH LEE
SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SETS UP A
NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON
RIDGE...ARCING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY.
NORTHEAST OF THIS AXIS...SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...WHICH PUTS CAPES UP AROUND 1000 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 1500
J/KG.  0-6 KM SHEARS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...BUT WITH MODERATE
CAPE...A FEW STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HIGH
RES NMM AND ARM SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH BASED ON TIMING OF THE UPPER TROF SEEMS
REASONABLE.  MODELS DEVELOP ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND IN PARTICULAR THE BURN
SCARS.  THIS AREA MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF CLOUDS BREAK AND
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.  WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO LATER
SHIFTS AND ALLOW ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO COME IN FIRST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A WARMING AND GENERAL DRYING TREND THEN ANTICIPATED
FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND POPS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONGER TERM WITH NEXT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES) FROM
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.

THEN A WARMING AND GENERAL DRYING TREND(ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED) SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER
EASTERN ALABAMA AT 18Z FRIDAY SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA BY 18Z SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY BEFORE
SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS PROJECTED FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 0800Z TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT STARTING AROUND 08Z AS ANOTHER STRATUS DECK
FORMS PRODUCING LOW CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BY 17Z TOMORROW MORNING.

KCOS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 02Z DUE TO LOW VIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z...WITH REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED UNDER THESE SHOWERS. TOMORROW MORNING SE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BRINGING AROUND
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL STARTING AROUND
0800Z. MISTY CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

KPUB...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 02-08Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
UNDER SHOWERS AS THEY PASS. SSE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...STARTING AROUND 08Z DUE TO LOW CIGS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
LUKINBEAL

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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