Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
406 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently...An upper ridge of high pressure was in place over the
Western US, with NW flow aloft over Colorado. Some mid and high
level moisture was streaming up across the 4 Corners and into the
state this morning. As of 330 am, temps have cooled into the 50s and
60s for the plains, and 40s for the mts.

Today and Tonight...Models have been consistent in strengthening the
high pressure over the region starting today, providing for another
warm day with temps expected to be a degree or two warmer than
readings on Sunday. Convection is forecast to fire over the higher
terrain once again by midday, though the focus areas will be the
eastern and southern mts, and not so much the CONTDVD. Also, shower
and storm activity may be slow to move off the mts, so the adjacent
plains may not see storms and pcpn until late aftn. Hi-res models
are showing a disturbance producing storm activity along the Palmer
Divide between 00z-03z, and feel this is one of the things that SPC
is keying in on with respect to the svr wx outlook for today. SPC
has much of the plains under a marginal risk, and have included El
Paso, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties in a slight risk area. Storm
activity across the plains this evening will likely continue late
into the night. The strongest storms could produce hail one inch in
diameter and wind gusts around 60 mph. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Upper Ridge axis will remain off to the west with a series of
disturbances riding down the eastern periphery over the next several
days, kicking off afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains which
in turn will develop into convective clusters across the plains
during the late evening and overnight hours. Frontal/outflow
boundary intrusions will continue to surge into the southeast CO
plains, increasing dew points. Primary storm track/upper jet will
stay off to the northeast, which appears to limit overall deep
layer shears over southern CO some. But CAPE will be on the
increase, so main threat will be the potential for strong to
marginally severe storms, capable of producing hail, damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. The challenge will be predicting the
track of MCSs each night as these systems drop through the plains.
NAM is consistently farther west with these storm tracks, which
puts the eastern most counties under the gun. Given the trend for
these boundaries to push southward with each successive day, have
leaned towards the NAM for now and will keep some pops through the
overnight hours.

Front pushes through the plains on Wednesday and stalls out along
the CO/NM border during the afternoon. Given the day time arrival of
the front on Wed, have kept Max temperatures on the warm side of
guidance for now. Low level flow turns easterly by afternoon which
will increasing pops for Wednesday afternoon as moisture influx in
easterly upslope flow continues. There is the potential for
another convective cluster or two to develop across the southeast
plains and the southern border area for Wednesday night where the low
level jet sets up and overrides the frontal boundary. Will keep
pops going through most of Wednesday night.

Thursday looks to be the coolest day.  Even western areas should see
a mid week cooling trend as moisture increases from the south across
the area, ramping up thunderstorm chances out west as well. Another
disturbance moves across the area which should kick off scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the mountains, which will
move off into the plains overnight.  Shear looks a little better
this day as well so this may be one of the better days for severe
thunderstorm potential across most of the southeast plains.

A similar pattern continues for Friday with the upper ridge
flattening some as disturbances continue to ride through the flow.
Deep layer shears look sufficient again for a potential for severe
thunderstorms across the SE mts and plains Friday afternoon and

The upper ridge rebuilds out west over the weekend, though tap of
moisture from the south doesn`t seem to relent.  So will see
isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.  Deep layer shears
weaken again as rising heights aloft push the core of stronger
winds aloft northward again, so potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms may decrease some. Looks like drier air makes a
better push into western areas early next week, which should taper
back pops with temperatures heating back up again. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 356 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Predominant VFR conditions for much of the forecast area, including
the three main taf sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS for the next 24 hrs.
However, there are a few differences to note between the sites.

KCOS and KPUB...mention of VCTS starting 22z with potential for
gusty and erratic sfc winds. Also, latest numerical guidance is
suggesting possibility of IFR conditions due to low clouds moving in
overnight around 09z.

KALS...will mention VCTS starting at 21z, with potential for gusty
and erratic sfc winds from tstm outflow.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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