Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS SLOW TO CLEAR OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOWER CLOUDS PINNED SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING IN LATEST VIS SAT PIC...SO
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CLOUDS CLEAR MOST OF THE COS METRO AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGF LOWER FROM PUEBLO
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS AS LIMITED MIXING WILL HOLD READINGS BACK
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...ONCE AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY.

AS OF 4 AM MST...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT NOTING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL LATE NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES...VARIABLE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME
DATA SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE) WILL BE NOTED OVER SECTIONS
OF CHAFFEE AND ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND NOON TODAY AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
19Z TODAY.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

OVERALL...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN NEAR LATE NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
PROJECTED TO RUN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY THERE WL BE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WITH
AN UPR RIDGE BEING OVR THE GREAT BASIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WL BE A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THU...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY THU NIGHT AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THRU SAT.  THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPR TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO SUN AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS ON
SUN.  FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE COOLER SUN...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE WX STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUN ACRS THE AREA.  SUN
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  THE GFS
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL CO
MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA. WL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.  DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
MON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE APPEAR FOR TUE.  THE ECMWF HAS A
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
THEN INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM SENDS A FRONT THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS HAS A TROF
EXTENDING FROM WRN MT TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS BRINGS
INCREASING MSTR TO THE CONTDVD AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN.  FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME MTN PCPN AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

AT KALS...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AT KCOS...PERSISTENT SE WIND KEEPING MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 1710Z VIS SAT PIC SUGGESTS SOME DISSIPATION
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS IN
PLACE UNTIL 19Z WITH CLEARING TOWARD 20Z AS WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
BECOME MORE S-SW. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

KPUB...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS NORTH OF
7BM UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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