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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231736
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 741 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND BLENDED INTO REST OF FORECAST.
TWEAKED SKY COVER A LITTLE TO BETTER REFLECT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

...HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO TODAY.  THIS WILL CONFINE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.  WIND
SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LIGHT SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW.  PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN.  STEERING WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
KEEP STORMS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS NOT THE USUAL
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO PUSH STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. IN FACT...STEERING WINDS TODAY WILL PROBABLY TEND TO TAKE
STORMS WESTWARD OR NORTHWARD.

THE WEST FORM COMPLEX SCAR PROBABLY HAS THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN TODAY.  THE SCARS LOCATED FARTHER EAST...LIKE THE WALDO AND
EAST PEAK SCARS...WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS OF A THREAT TODAY. IT WILL
BE HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. NO RECORDS...BUT GETTING CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED SOUTH BY SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MONSOONAL PLUME WILL EXTEND
FROM ARIZONA INTO COLORADO. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE INCREASED
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND
HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOS GUIDANCE EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
TERRAIN. THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THAT ROGUE STORM ACROSS AREA
BURN SCARS THAT COULD CAUSE ISSUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...PATTERN EVOLVING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND GREAT BASIN...AND A
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE...SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...SO THERE WILL BE DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS. MAIN THREAT
WILL AGAIN BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...SOME
OF WHICH MAY PUSH OFF INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT