


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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185 FXUS65 KPUB 042032 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 232 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot across the Plains through the forecast period, with upper 80s to mid to upper 90s across the Plains, and 80s for the San Luis Valley. - Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, possible across the region Saturday. - Active weather continues Monday through Thursday, with daily shower and thunderstorms changes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Currently...thunderstorms have been developing across the Pikes Peak Region early this afternoon, and tracking southeast. An outflow boundary is currently track south, and will continue to do so over the next couple of hours. Temperatures are hot across the region, with 80s to mid 90s across the Plains, and upper 70s over the San Luis Valley. Rest of today and tonight...an upper level shortwave trough is currently tracking across northeast Colorado, with energy south into our Plains. This has help to generate the showers and thunderstorms over the Pikes Peak Region. As the upper system shifts eastward this evening, expect thunderstorms to spread south and east, remaining north of a Colorado Springs to Kim line. Moisture has been decreasing along the I-25 corridor, with dewpoints falling into the 40s. Meanwhile, upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints remain near the Kansas border. NAM and GFS SBCAPE values of 700-1000 j/kg exist where the higher dewpoints are, which may help a few thunderstorms become strong, to possibly severe through this evening, mainly near the Kansas border. Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph are possible, with any storms that do become severe having hail larger than 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Outside of the thunderstorm threat area, an outflow boundary will continue to track south across the Plains into this evening. Northeasterly flow behind the boundary could cause wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph for an hour or two as the boundary passes south. This boundary should lose steam has it continues south, with not much wind expected as it approaches the New Mexico border later this evening. Expect convection to shift east of the area by midnight, with dry conditions prevailing into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will remain mild, with 50s to lower 60s across the Plains, and upper 40s across the San Luis Valley. Saturday...the upper trough will continue east across the Central Plains, while upper ridging moves into western Colorado. An embedded upper wave in the northwest flow aloft is forecast to drop across Colorado during the afternoon. Low level flow will shift back southeasterly on the Plains, helping to keep modest moisture across the Plains; dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This will lead to CAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range by the afternoon, and when combined with the upper energy, will help generate another round of showers and thunderstorms. Expect initial development over the Pikes Peak Region and Raton Mesa by early afternoon, with activity spreading southeast across the Plains by late afternoon. Conditions will once again be favorable for a few strong to possibly severe storms, with gusty outflow winds and nickel size hail both possible. Temperatures will be hot, with upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and mid 80s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Upper wave pushes from the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains Sun, with hints of a weak cold front dropping south across ern CO during the day. Best moisture Sun afternoon/evening will be across the eastern plains, with air mass getting progressively drier farther west toward the Continental Divide. Instability on the plains east of I-25 increases to above 2000 J/KG in the afternoon, while 0-6km shear rises into the 35-45 kt range as mid level swly flow and surface s-se winds both increase. Expect storms to fire over the eastern mountains/I-25 early the afternoon, then strengthen as they move east across the plains late afternoon/evening. SWODY3 has ern CO highlighted for a marginal risk of severe storms, which looks reasonable. Similar set-up for Mon, with again best coverage of storms spreading from the eastern mountains in the afternoon to the southeast plains by evening. Max temps both Sun/Mon will hang out within a few degf of early July averages at most locations. Upper ridge begins to rebuild starting Tue, though enough moisture lingers for isolated to scattered storms again at many locations, with lower wind shear/CAPE values arguing for weaker storms. Generally hotter/drier Wed/Thu with upper ridge over the srn Rockies, then hints of a nrn stream trough/cold front as early as Fri, with an upturn in thunderstorm chances possible. Max temps creep slightly above average Tue-Thu, then potentially begin to fall slightly toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 KALS...VFR conditions forecast through the next 24 hours. KCOS...generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will remain likely through 23z this afternoon, with gusty outflow winds, reduce CIGS and VIS all possible. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, mainly after 21z. KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. An outflow boundary looks to arrive after 22z, with northeasterly winds gusting 20-25 kts possible. Winds will die off after the boundary moves through. There is a low probability of a thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOZLEY