Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281935
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
135 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW
COAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP THIS
MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE PAC NW
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WARM AIR
ALOFT...GENERALLY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEARING RECORD
LEVELS. CLIMATE DATA FOR MARCH 28TH IN COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA IS AS FOLLOWS:

COS...NORMAL HIGH 55...RECORD HIGH 80/1963...FORECAST HIGH 76
PUB...NORMAL HIGH 62...RECORD HIGH 84/1986...FORECAST HIGH 82
ALS...NORMAL HIGH 54...RECORD HIGH 69/2012...FORECAST HIGH 71

THERE COULD A SPOTTY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD...HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS NORTHERN
TIER SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND TERRAIN/DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE STAYS NORTH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
THE WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PASSING
WAVE DOES SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLAT PATTERN.

SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...PUSHING THROUGH ERN CO. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE HIGHS ON SAT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS TWO
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED TS OVER SRN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE SPC GENERAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...BASICALLY THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN
NM AND MEXICO. THIS WILL BOOST POPS A BIT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN S OF HGWY 50. AGAIN...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD TS
INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THESE SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER
THE MTS BOTH DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
OFF THE MTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF FROM THIS CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE.

THU-SAT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL SEE BEST POPS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CO...AND OVER THE
MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVES. A 100 KT OR GREATER JET WILL BE OVER
SRN CO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACNW NEXT WEEKEND...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY DAY EIGHT TO TEN...BUT
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-03Z TODAY. TONIGHT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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