Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 272119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Currently...drier air beginning to push eastward from the mountains
through the I-25 corridor as of 21z as gusty w-sw flow mixes to the
surface. Still enough CAPE over the mountains for a few weak -tsra
the next hour or two, while over the plains, drier air and
increasing wly flow was eroding convection fairly quickly along I-
25. Appears at least isolated storms will survive as they push into
the higher CAPE (1000-1500 J/KG) air farther east on the plains,
leading to the potential for some strong to severe wind gusts near
the KS border into early evening. Storms should end in CO 03z-06z,
with cold front then dropping through the plains 09z-12z, switching
winds to nly along and east of the mountains by sunrise.

On Wednesday, brisk wly flow aloft remains in place across the area,
and with even drier air mass advecting into the region, expect red
flag conditions to develop over the San Juan/La Garita mountains and
the San Luis Valley in the afternoon, continuing into the evening.
Central mountains could also see strong winds/very low RH, but fuels
here aren`t critical yet, so no highlight. Farther east, winds look
marginal for highlights over the Sangres/Teller county, so will hold
off on anything for now. Over the plains, low level moisture
gradually mixes out behind the front, with significant instability
limited to areas along the Palmer Divide and near the KS border.
Models very slow to break out convection during the afternoon across
the region as better instability will lie north along I-70 into nern
CO/nwrn KS, so will keep only some very low pops in place for nrn
fringes of the region through the day. Max temps should see little
change over the mountains and interior valleys, with perhaps just
slightly cooling over the plains in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Convection is expected to be mainly diurnal in nature through the
extended period, with isolated to low-end scattered showers and
storms developing over the higher terrain and far eastern plains
each aftn and eve. The one exception will be likely Fri and Sat,
when convection might linger through the overnight hours for the
eastern plains.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Westerly zonal flow across the
region, as an upper low crosses Canada and northern Montana. This
low will push a cold front south across WY and into CO, reaching
east central CO Thu aftn and southern CO Thu evening. Ahead of the
front, brisk westerly to southwesterly flow will push max temps into
the 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the
eastern plains. Convection is forecast to be isolated at best both
Wed and Thu aftn and eve.

Friday and Saturday...Cold front passage the night before is
expected o drop max temps by about 10 degrees for Fri, then creep up
a couple of degrees for Sat. There will be a slight increase in pcpn
chances, especially for Sat aftn and eve as convection may linger
overnight for the eastern plains.

Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure builds back into the desert
SW. This will bring warmer temps and isolated diurnal convection to
the mts and eastern plains. Look for max temps in the 80s for the
high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the eastern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Expect VFR conditions for all TAFS tonight and Thursday. Tsra threat
will shift east onto the plains this evening, and will keep
convection out of the terminal forecasts for the remainder of the
day. Winds will be gusty and erratic at times until sunset due to
convective outflows. Overnight, weak cold front will shift winds to
the N-NW at KPUB and KCOS, with S-SE flow then developing in the
afternoon. At KALS, gusty W-SW winds will diminish this evening,
then redevelop Wed afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ223-224.



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