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000
FXUS65 KPUB 271207
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 507 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATIONS OF WARNINS AND ADVISORIES OVR THE ERN MTNS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS NWS PUEBLO
NOTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT AS OF 4 AM
MST THIS MORNING.  ALSO...4 AM MST SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS OVER THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0F TO -15F AT TIMES.

OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS
APPEARANCE.

RECENT REAL-TIME AND SATELLITE DATA...PV ANALYSIS AND NEAR/SHORT-
TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORECAST DISTRICT WILL
EXPERIENCE DECREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL(ESPECIALLY MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS TODAY) IN COMBINATION WITH WELL BELOW LATE
FEBRUARY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALLOW WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BACA COUNTY WHERE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...EASTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED OR LOWER
GRADE POPS IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED BELOW SEASONAL LATE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES.  OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE SHORT-TERM IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  ALSO...INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM MT...SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CA ON
SAT...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE CONTDVD ALLOWING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES TO
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS.  ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ON SAT AFTERNOON...E TO SE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE SERN PLAINS LOOK MOSTLY DRY ON SAT AND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY JUST SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE MTNS WL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOWFALL...WITHE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR WILL MAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PCPN...DECREASING OR ENDING LATE.  THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS SHOWS TEMPS ALOFT WARMING AND THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

ON SUN THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NR CENTRAL CA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE AFTERNOON A
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE ERN PLAINS AS AN UPR TROF MOVES
FROM ERN MT INTO MN.  THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SW MTNS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THRU THE DAY. SUN NIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS HELPING ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG THE
ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVR THE ERN MTNS AND
FREMONT COUNTY...AND A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MAY END UP NEEDING HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NR THE
ERN MTNS.  HEAVY SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FALLING OVR THE SAN
JUAN MTNS SUN NIGHT...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OVR THE LA GARITA MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS. PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON MON THE UPR SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.  THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY ON
MON...BUT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE MSTR STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THAT AREA.  MON NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO
CO...WITH SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE UPR TROF WL
BE SLOWING PASSING OVR THE AREA WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU THE SERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU EARLY
IN THE DAY.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF MOVING ACRS THE
AREA AND IT HOLDS ONTO PCPN THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE THE GFS
DECREASES AND THEN ENDS PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  THU THEN LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

OTHER THAN PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND FOG AT TIMES AT
THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE THAT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ060-066>068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77