Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Currently...GOES-16 IR imagery showed the center of circulation of
the potent disturbance over southwest Wyoming, with dry slot through
western Colorado.  Strongest convection was well to our northeast
over Nebraska and southern South Dakota.  Some pockets of rain and
snow showers across the higher terrain and far southeast Colorado.
Stronger showers and isolated thunder were to the south of the CWA
in New Mexico and the Panhandle region. Temperatures were in the
upper 50s to around 70 across the I-25 corridor into the plains, 40s
across the high valleys, and 30s and 40s mountains.  Areas of gusty
west-southwest winds were occurring, keeping temperatures up with
the mixing.

Today, the potent upper level disturbance is forecast to lift
northeast into the Dakotas by late in the day, with a secondary.
disturbance developing/digging into the Great Basin. Any showers
should either diminish or move out of the CWA by early morning,
followed by drier air.  Enhanced southwest flow aloft will be
evident across the central Rockies. This flow will be mixed down to
the surface. Across the southeast plains of Colorado, breezy
conditions will develop/continue, and minimum relative humdities
with drop to the upper teens this afternoon. With these near
critical fire weather conditions, caution is advised with outdoor
fire activities and any activity that could start fires. There will
be a low chance for isolated light rain/snow showers across the
Continental Divide this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the
80s to lower 90s across the I-25 corridor and plains, to the 60s and
70s across the high valleys, to the 40s and 50s across the
mountains.

Tonight, models show the second potent trough centered across the
northern Rockies pushing eastward, and allowing cooler air to move
south through most of eastern Colorado.  The front is forecast to be
dry across our eastern CWA. Temperatures will dip into the upper 40s
to lower 50s across the plains, upper 30s to lower 40s across the
high valleys, and upper 20s to lower 30s mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Guidance continues to indicate that a longwave trough will settle in
the west part of the country during this period. Several short wave
will move through this trough sending relatively weak cool fronts
across the region at times. Overall anticipate it will be dry with
temperatures generally a few degreees above normal. The greatest
threat for fire weather issues will be Tuesday as a fairly potent
short wave revolvles around the long wave trough and moves off to
our northeast. This will bring a band of strong southwesterlies over
the region along with a swath of dry air across se CO. Temps will
likely get into the 90s on Tuesday on the plains. Winds,
especially in the mountains, will likely be gusting in the 30-40
mph range.

As for precip, it will likely be dry across the plains nearly every
day. The best chance of precip may be at the end of the week as a
high amplitude short wave moves across the western CONUS. If it
verifies, we will see snow in the higher elevations and possibly
some storms on the plains. Otherwise, a few rain/snow showers will
be possible across the c mtns as the weaker short waves move across
the region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The 3 terminals, KALS, KCOS, and KPUB, will have VFR conditions
through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...TM



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