Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Currently...satellite imagery indicates quiet conditions prevailing
across southern Colorado this afternoon.  A few high clouds are
passing over the mountains with generally clear conditions across
the Plains.  Southwest flow aloft has mixed to the surface with many
areas seeing winds gusting to near 25 mph.  This has also allowed
for lower dewpoints across the Plains, with humidity values in the
upper teens producing near critical fire weather conditions.  Any
outdoor burning is discouraged, especially across the eastern
Plains.  Temperatures are warm with mid 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations.

Tonight and upper level disturbance over northern Utah
will continue to lift northeast across Wyoming and into the Northern
Plains through tomorrow.  This will keep broad southwesterly flow
across Colorado.  Models indicating generally dry condition across
the region, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible over
the Central Mountains through Saturday morning.  The main threats
over the Central Mountains will be occasional lightning through
this evening, and perhaps a light dusting of snow above 12000 feet
over the Central Mountain peaks. tonight.  At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to drop south across the Plains late tonight into
Saturday morning.  This will bring a northerly wind shift and cooler
air into the Plains for Saturday.

As the upper system continues to pull away on Saturday, expect dry
conditions to prevail across the region.  Southwest winds will also
subside with cooler temperatures expected across the region leading
to a very pleasant day across Southern Colorado.  Any showers over
the Central Mountains will dissipate during the morning hours with
dry conditions expected area wide through the afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to near 80 for the afternoon
with lots of sunshine across the region. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Main longer term meteorological concerns continue to be pops,
temperatures and winds as well as localized elevated fire weather
concerns at times.

It still appears that a generally dry(outside of the Saturday
evening into Sunday night time-frame) and mild meteorological
pattern should be noted over the forecast district during the
longer term in combination with increasing winds next week.

Southwesterly to zonal upper flow should prevail over the forecast
district during the longer term. In addition, the cooler easterly
surface flow of Saturday evening into Sunday should give way to
eastern Colorado surface lee-side troughing from later Sunday
into Tuesday in advance of next north-northeasterly surface
surge Tuesday night. Also, passing upper disturbances are
expected to somewhat enhance precipitation potential this
weekend, especially from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Regarding winds, recent computer simulations and forecast model
soundings still suggest that the highest potential of increased
winds over the forecast district during the longer term should be
experienced from later Monday into Tuesday night and to a lesser
degree from later Thursday into Friday night. Also, the highest
potential of localized fire weather concerns should be realized
from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Finally, the coolest temperatures during the longer term should
be noted this weekend and then again from Wednesday into next
Friday, with warmest temperatures still expected during the Monday
into Tuesday time-frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A weak cool front will move across KCOS and KPUB later tonight.
Winds will take on a northerly component but are not expected to
be gusty. Winds will be generally light and diurnally driven
during the daylight hours tomorrow. Another cool front will move
into the plains tomorrow evening.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours
at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.




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