Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KPUB 212203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

North to northwest flow aloft will continue over the area tonight
and Wed.  A few light snow showers will still be possible over the
Sawatch and Mosquito mtn ranges into the evening, but should end
before midnight.  Otherwise, dry weather can be expected tonight and
Wed.  Temps on Wed will be several degrees warmer than today over
the southeast plains, with highs in the 60s in most locations.  The
high valley locations will see temps that are similar to, or just a
littler warmer than today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Models in good agreement through the extended period with
generally dry and mild conditions across Southern Colorado.

Wednesday night through Thanksgiving...high pressure will dominate
the southwest CONUS while an upper trough slowly moves east out of
the Missouri Valley. This will keep southern Colorado in broad and
dry northwesterly flow aloft. Expect overnight lows in the lower
to mid 30s across the region. Afternoon highs on Thanksgiving will
reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations.
No precipitation is expected.

Friday...and upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across
Montana and Wyoming into the Northern Plains. This will flatten
the upper high to the south, leading to increasing westerly flow
aloft. Increased mixing should allow for warming temperatures into
the 70s for highs. Elevated fire weather conditions are also
possible across the Plains, so this will need to be monitored.
Most model solutions keep the area dry, but one or two stray
snow showers may be possible over the Central Mountains Friday
afternoon and evening. For now, have the forecast dry given the
northerly storm track.

Saturday and Sunday...high pressure over the Desert Southwest will
once again build northward over the Rockies for the weekend. A
cold front will have moved across the area by Saturday morning
with cooler air across the Plains. Highs on Saturday will only
reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Sunday, a trough is
forecast to move into the Northern Rockies forcing flow aloft more
southwesterly. Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees on Sunday
with upper 60s for highs. No precipitation is expected through the

Monday and Tuesday...models in good agreement with the upper
trough over the Northern Rockies splitting, with energy cutting
off into an upper low near the Four Corners. This would bring an
increased chance for precipitation along the Continental Divide on
Monday as the system approaches the area. A cold front is forecast
to drop south Monday night with much colder air across the Plains.
After highs in the upper 60s on Monday, highs will reach into the
lower to mid 50s, if not colder on Tuesday. The Continental Divide
will continue to see snow showers through Tuesday. The Plains
appear to remain mostly dry with this system, but there could be a
few showers by Tuesday.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS the next 24 hrs.
Lower clouds over the area this afternoon are expected to decrease
this evening, but then there will be an increase in high level
clouds that will remain over the area into early Wed morning.




AVIATION...28 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.