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000
FXUS65 KPUB 242145
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CO AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOC UPPER JET DROPPING
THROUGH THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES.  WHILE CLOUDS MAY HAVE LIMITED WARMING
SOMEWHAT...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE OFFSET THIS AFFECT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD CLIPPING BY
EASTERN CO THIS EVENING.  HAVE SEEN SOME WEAK ECHOES IN AREA RADARS
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...AND EVEN A BRIEF -SHRA AT KHEQ. GIVEN TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...THINK THIS WILL CLIP BY NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED -SHSN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND
MOSQUITO RANGES TONIGHT.  DON`T THINK THESE AREAS WILL SEE MUCH MORE
THAN A SPOTTY INCH OF ACCUMULATION.  WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT
MTN TOP LEVEL...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL STAY FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES...SO WILL KEEP SOME
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH AND
MOSQUITO RANGES AND PIKES PEAK THROUGH THE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THIS SHOULD SWING
WINDS AROUND FROM A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT BY MORNING SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A QUICK DROP INTO THE
20S FOR MOST AREAS.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE LESS WIND...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER WHERE BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY.  COOLING ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND DECREASING WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT MIXING.  SO ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE
MORE SUN...LESS WIND MAY MEAN TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY.  COOLED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT
GENERALLY KEPT THEM CLOSE TO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE LEADING TO
AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMEST
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN +3C
TO +6C AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WILL SEE
HIGHS WARM TO WELL AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THIS
DESPITE AN EXPECTED LIGHT WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE. CURRENT
RECORDS FOR JAN 26 ARE 57F AT ALS IN 1982...68F AT COS IN 1982 AND
74F AT PUB IN 1951. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE WARM AIR ALOFT PERSISTING OVERHEAD.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE GFS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH EJECTING
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AND ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE EJECTING WAVE WITH THE LATEST
CANADIAN RUN A TAD CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...ALL
MODELS POINT TO BEST CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDED POPS. SHOULD SEE AMPLE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WARMEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS DO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES AT AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY AND COOLING
BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ON THURSDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH WILL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND INDICATING
BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND LOCATION OF SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED CLOSE MODEL BLENDED
POPS WHICH BRINGS IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OUT BY 06Z. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE NORTH AND DIMINISH
AT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE
SUN...AND LESS WIND...THOUGH COMPONENT WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS LIGHTEN AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR KCOS AND KPUB. KALS WILL SEE
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CLEARING TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING. PROBABILITY
STILL LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE KALS
TAF. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT