National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 071445
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
745 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOWFALL FIELDS. STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH
MORNING RUNS COMING IN.  LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

...MOIST SPRING STORM TO BRING WET SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...

MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS NOW ON A GOOD SPRING SNOW FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD
END UP BEING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE HIGH PLAINS ADJACENT TO
THE MOUNTAINS...WEST OF I-25 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...INCLUDING THE
RATON MESA.

VERY CONSISTENT MESSAGE FROM THE MODELS NOW THAT THIS IS WHERE THE
MAXIMUM PRECIP WILL OCCUR.  CONCEPTUALLY...THIS MAKES SENSE TOO AS
THIS EVENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL FORCE THE PRECIP TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.  THE
PRIME TARGET FOR SNOW...UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW...WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW MEANS GREAT LIFT.
THESE AREAS ARE UNDER A WARNING FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE
WARNING INCLUDES TELLER COUNTY...PIKES PEAK...THE WET AND THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.  THEY SHOULD BE THE WINNERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA ADJACENT TO THESE RANGES AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS
INCLUDES THE PALMER DIVIDE...FREMONT COUNTY...PUEBLO COUNTY WEST OF
I-25 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS AROUND WALSENBURG AND TRINIDAD...AND ALSO
THE PLAINS ALONG THE RATON MESA...BORDERING NEW MEXICO.  THESE AREAS
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY WET SNOW...SEVERAL INCHES OF IT...BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE MORE ON THE
GRASSY AREAS...AND NOT SO MUCH ON THE ROADS...DUE TO MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES.  BUT...WHERE IT SNOWS HEAVILY ENOUGH...IT MAY
ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS ANYWAY.

ELSEWHERE...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH SNOW FOR A WARNING OR ADVISORY...BUT
STILL AN INCH OR 2 OR 3.  THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
SALIDA TO BUENA VISTA IS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER AN ADVISORY...BUT THEY
COULD STILL SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OR SO.  AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
THERE JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.  THE REASON SOUTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY WAS NOT PLACED IN A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE SURFACE WINDS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTH...WHICH USUALLY ENDS UP CREATING A PRONOUNCED SNOW SHADOW
FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.  THE MODELS ARE EVEN HINTING AT THIS IN
THE PRECIP FIELDS.  SO...PROBABLY A 1 TO 3 INCHER FOR MOST OF
DOWNTOWN COLORADO SPRINGS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE SPRINGS. LW

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

SYSTEM IMPACTING FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AND TONIGHT IS PROJECTED
TO BEGIN DEPARTING THE CWFA SATURDAY WITH METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS
THEN SHIFTING TO IMPACT NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVER THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SOME LINGERING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY
OVER GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THEN A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGING 70F WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREATS ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES BOTH AFTERNOONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RECENT COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATES THAT NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY...GENERALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW) IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS. WFO PUEBLO
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
POTENTIAL INCOMING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

A MOIST SPRING STORM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS INCLUDES ALL 3 TAFS SITES...BUT
ESPECIALLY KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES.  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ078.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ063-076-077-083-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ086.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ081-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW