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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231038
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Thunderstorms Primarily over and near the Mountains Again...

Water Vapor imagery is showing generally drier air trying to work
across the area this morning.  So far, this drying is showing up
primarily across far northern parts of the forecast area, across
Lake County.  The satellite derived Total Precipitable Water product
currently shows less than 100 percent of average water north of a
line through Alamosa and Pueblo and greater than 100 percent of
average south of that line.  In general, the pattern is pretty
similar to yesterday.  That is to say most of the convection will be
driven by afternoon heating in combination with lifting forced by
the mountains.  The upper high over the western U.S. is
repositioning itself over Utah and western Colorado at this time. It
is in a position to advect drier, more subsident air over the
region.  It is not in a position to completely suppress convection,
just enough to subdue it a little and confine it mainly to the
mountains.  So, another day much like yesterday with afternoon and
evening thunderstorms pulsing up over the mountains, with some
activity skirting the adjacent plains, especially late in the day.
Primary concerns are the same as the past several days, lightning
and locally heavy rain resulting in flash flooding, particularly
over the burn scars.  With the upper high driving in slightly cooler
air from the north and east, temperatures should be a little cooler
today, near or possibly a little below average.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday and Tuesday...Relatively flat ridge of high pressure over the
region, with the ridge axis somewhere along the CO/KS state line,
will keep warm temps in place. Monsoon moisture is expected to
continue to stream up across the Four Corners and into western
Colorado, with the best chances for convection restricted to the
higher terrain and little for the eastern plains. Increasing
moisture and weak steering flow will once again create a risk of
flash flooding over area burn scars. Look for max temps in the 70s
to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the
plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...The ridge starts to build back to the
west into the Great Basin, while multiple shortwaves crest the ridge
and move across WY and CO. A cold front Wed, with the resulting
upslope flow Wed night through Thu, will cool temps, and increase
convection chances for all of the area including the plains for both
Wed and Thu. Once again, potential flash flooding with remain a
concern. Temps start to slowly warm back up for Fri and Sat, as
convection mainly retreats back to the higher terrain. Temps across
the high valleys are forecast to remain in the 70s to lower 80s. For
the plains, max temps will be in the 80s for Wed and Thu, then warm
slightly into the 80s to around 90F for Fri and Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Thunderstorms will regenerate over and near the mountains this
afternoon and evening.  Coverage will initially be isolated
beginning around 17-18Z and then gradually increase and become
scattered 21-22Z.  Primary storm risks today will include lightning,
gusty winds to around 50 mph and heavy rain.  The KALS terminal
likely has the best chance of storms today as the monsoon moisture
will be deeper there.  Both the KCOS and KPUB terminals may not have
storms today as most activity will generate over the mountains and
be driven westward by steering winds.  However, a few storms may be
able to work off of the mountains and initiate along outflow
boundaries.  Will continue with VCTS in all 3 terminal forecasts at
this time, generally after 21-22Z.  Flight conditions will range
anywhere from MVFR to LIFR through areas of precipitation.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW