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000
FXUS65 KPUB 251018
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

...Dry and Cool...

Cool, dry northerly flow setting in over Colorado today.  A layer of
mid level clouds has formed over parts of the area early this
morning but these should dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise
according to the latest model prognostications.  Cool air has been
filtering south through the area overnight.  Today will likely be
the coolest of the bunch, and quite comfortable by most standards.
Afternoon highs should be about 5 or so degrees below average in
most places.  This equates to the 60s and 70s across the lower
elevations where most folks live. As one might expect, it`ll be even
cooler up in the mountains with highs in the 50s, 40s and even 30s
just depending on how high up you go.  Plenty of sun should abound
for the bulk of the day.

Tonight, dry and cool weather will continue.  It`ll be another night
of near freezing temperatures in the mountains, with mid 30s to
lower 40s for the plains.  With standard 5 foot instrument
temperatures dipping to the mid 30s in places, could be some patchy
frost right at the surface.  So, while a widespread killing freeze
or frost is not expected, could be some patchy such conditions.
Might be a good idea to protect tender plants that you wish to keep
growing just in case.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 417 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Monday and Tuesday...Long range models indicate a ridge of high
pressure over much of the western US to start the work week, while a
closed low slowly migrates north over the CA Baja. This will keep
Colorado dry amidst a warming trend. Look for max temps in the 70s
for much of the area, and 50s and 60s for the higher terrain. Temps
warm up on Tue, with aftn highs in the 80s for the plains, and 70s
for the high valleys.

Wednesday through Saturday...The upper ridge shifts to the east
starting Wed, as the closed low moves up across AZ and NV. This will
draw moisture up across the 4 Corners through Wed morning, reaching
the CONTDVD by the aftn. This low will open up and weaken as it
crosses the Great Basin on Thu, spreading showers across all of the
higher terrain and the adjacent plains. The southwest moisture feed
continues through Fri, then models diverge on whether or not
conditions dry out, with the GFS leaning towards a dry solution.
Therefore, expect showers for the higher terrain and portions of the
eastern plains through Fri, with the forecast grids then edging
towards more dry conditions for the weekend. As for temps, models
paint steady conditions with highs in the 80s for the plains, and
70s for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 417 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Dry northerly flow building in over flight area next 24 hours. Some
lingering MVFR, IFR, LIFR CIGS/VSBYS possible over the crest of the
Continental Divide until around 16z or so...dissipating after that.
Also, a layer of mid level clouds has formed over central and
norther parts of the flight area early this morning. These clouds
are expected to remain in the mid levels and not restrict flight
rules.  They should also dissipate after 16z.  Otherwise, VFR next
24 hours including the KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW