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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181008
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

...WARM DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT...

LATEST IR/WV IMAGES SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
ATTM WITH THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...500MB WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
THAN SOUTHWESTERLY...AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE TO 8 TO 9 DEG
C THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY I BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FA AS PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LATEST NAM/RAP/GFS GUIDANCE HAS
DELAYED THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO
21Z/00Z...AND KEEP THE PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS
FOR THE TIMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND REDUCED OR ELIMINATED
MOST POPS EAST OF I-25 FOR TONIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPE AND LI VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK
VERY WEAK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT THUNDER IN
THE GRIDS AS A QUICK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. -PJC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SHOWERY WEEKEND...THEN FIRE WX CONCERNS RAMP UP MID-WEEK...

TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF S CALIF ATTM WILL BE OUR MAIN WX MAKER THIS
WEEKEND FOR OUR REGION. AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...IT WILL BE VERY
BROAD AND WARM...BUT IT APPEARS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL COME WITH IT
GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. LIKEWISE...EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION APPEARS TO BE SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ONE CONCERN THAT I HAVE IS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PEGGING THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TO GET SOME HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN
THE WALDO BURN SCAR...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION CAREFULLY.

AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVE BY...DRIER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH TEMPS WARMING UP.

WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THIS WILL PLACE ALL OF S CO IN
STRONG SW FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING CLEAR SIGNALS OF THIS EVENT IN
BOTH THERE RH FIELDS (SINGLE DIGITS) AND WIND FIELDS (SUSTAINED 20
KNTS). SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED. OF COURSE...IF WE CAN GET
SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS WEEKEND THEN THE THREAT WILL BE LESS.

BY THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN. IT STILL
WILL BE WINDY ON THIS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB TODAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY IMPACT KALS THIS EVENING..BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 25KTS...AT KALS AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON. -PJC

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PJC