Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291739
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

...Quite a few showers today with locally heavy rain possible...

Currently...

Upper level low was located just east of the 4 corners. A vorticity
maximum rotating around this low was located over western Pueblo
county and was producing some rain from the higher elevations of the
Pikes Peak region down towards the Hayden Pass burn scar. Other
showers were noted over the far east plains and these were
associated with a jet streak moving north across the plains.

This morning...

Closed circulation over the 4 corners is expected to move very
little today but is expected to weaken and shear out as the day
progresses. As this occurs...the vort center over Pueblo county is
expected to weaken...with broad but rather deep weak upslope
developing as the day progresses.

Precip this morning is expected to weaken and decrease in
coverage and become more scattered in nature across the fcst area.

This afternoon...

Trough aloft will weaken...but will still be just to our west. HRRR
hints at another mid lvl vort max lifting out across the Plains
later this afternoon...and this lift should enhance showers over
this region. Over the remainder of the region...weak but deep
upslope will prevail and lift from the sheared upper level system
will continue to move over the region. By late this afternoon...high
res guidance has numerous showers over the entire region...with the
enhanced activity on the eastern slopes of most of the mtn ranges.
With CAPE values expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range and
general weak upward forcing over the entire region...locally heavy
rain will be possible across the entire area.

Have contemplated issuing a flash flood watch for the burn scar
regions but with uncertainty in where the heavy rain will be
today...will hold off for now. However...may issue one later this
morning if more definitive guidance comes in. HPC has the east
slopes of the mtns/adj plains in slight risk for flash flooding this
afternoon.

Temps will be relatively cool today  with 70s and 80s across the
Plains and 50s to 70s in the mtns/valleys.

Tonight...

Best forcing will migrate out towards the plains so expect best
chance of precip will be over the lower elevations. Activity should
decrease towards midnight with only a few early morning showers over
the far east plains expected. Some locally heavy rain will be
possible over the eastern plains early this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Tuesday and Wednesday...An upper level ridge builds over the Rocky
Mountain region Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the remnants of a
weakening low pressure system linger early and then finally
dissipate Wednesday. At the surface...low level upslope flow and
abundant moisture will aid in thunderstorm development. The winds
aloft will be very light once again and will allow for slow
movement and training of storms on Tuesday. Heavy rain and flash
flooding will again be a concern.

On Wednesday...the upper level ridge is in place and enough moisture
remains over the southern and western portions of the CWA to allow
for thunderstorm development again. The south central mountains may
have the best chance of seeing heavy rain.

West southwest flow spreads into the area Thursday bringing warmer
temperatures. There will be fewer thunderstorms...especially on the
southeast plains.

By Friday...a strong upper level trof moves into the Pacific
northwest and into the great basin with moisture returning to
Colorado and bringing scattered thunderstorms to southern Colorado
once again. A drier weekend may be in store as models show deep
moisture remaining well to the south of Colorado and drier
southwest flow aloft over the state. Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALs over the next
24 hours, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across
the area through the afternoon and evening hours. Storms that move
across the terminals will be capable of producing brief MVFR/IFR
conditions with locally heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...mw



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