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000
FXUS65 KPUB 190140
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
740 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED TO REMOVE A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 AND
TO REFLECT CURRENT PCPN TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO FIRE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(SOUTHERN SANGRES) AS SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS ALSO FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN/CEN CO
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SFC BASED HEATING...EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS (GENERALLY IN THE
50S)...AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS.  CAPE VALUES WILL
PROBABLY RANGE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...PRODUCING A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LCLS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC WINDS PULL MORE EASTERLY UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  LATEST
HRRR (11Z DUE TO SYSTEM UPGRADES AND LACK OF UPDATES) AND 4KM NSSL
WRF...ALL PEG NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH THEN DROPS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING.  THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR...AS WELL AS THE
WALDO...THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO PEG BLACK FOREST WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  BEST THREAT FOR THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE 3 PM TO
5 PM TIME FRAME.

CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WINDING DOWN AFTER 9 PM...AND THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNS SHIFT TOWARDS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.  CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
QUICK CALL AROUND TO LOCAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATES THAT
FUELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...PUEBLO...HUERFANO...AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS WILL CARRY FIRE...SO HAVE INCLUDED THOSE ZONES
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING.

MEANWHILE...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED THE DRY LINE WESTWARD AND
KEEPS IT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE OUT THAT WAY WITH AROUND 2000+J/KG AND NAM12
INDICATING 0-6KM SHEARS AROUND 40-50 KTS...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP. THREAT LOOKS PRETTY ISOLATED AT THIS POINT
AS TRIGGER MAY BE MISSING...BUT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO LOSE THE CAP
TOWARDS AFTERNOON...SO CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP A THUNDERSTORM.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A BROAD...DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSEQUENT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH CAPE
VALUES ACROSS OUR KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES EARLY EVENING...SO
REINTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL DRIFT
EAST.  SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...PRODUCING DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING
WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS CRITICAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES
TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND EL PASO
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY.  WE WILL LIKELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
DURING FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVENT
AND MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE THEM NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. WE HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AFTER 21Z.  BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR TO VFR
CIGS/VIS.  ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 6Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE..KALS COULD SEE A -TSRA
THROUGH 23Z WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KTS.  OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>230.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT