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000
FXUS65 KPUB 041420
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
720 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

...ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO DEVELOP...

ARCTIC AIR HAS SPILLED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  TO THE WEST
OF THE EASTERN RANGES IT IS QUITE BALMY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY FINALLY OUT OF THE INVERSION ENJOYING SOME RELATIVELY
MILD PACIFIC AIR.  BALMY SOUTHERLY BREEZES OVER 30 MPH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 30S AT ALAMOSA CURRENTLY.  BUT...BACK TO THE EAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM LESS THAN 5
DEGREES ON THE PALMER DIVIDE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS
FARTHER SOUTH.  WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM -5 TO -10 OVER
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SNOW HAS BEEN FLYING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY.  WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THOSE
AREAS...ALONG WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THE
ADJACENT HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT IS NOW
STARTING TO DO.  CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AND BACK ACROSS FREMONT...CUSTER AND NORTHERN
PUEBLO COUNTIES.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  HI RES MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM THE
PIKES PEAK REGION SOUTH ACROSS FREMONT...CUSTER AND WESTERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.  VERY LOW WATER CONTENT IN THE ARCTIC
AIR WILL LIMIT WATER EQUIVALENTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  IT`S
REALLY HARD TO GET A DEEP SNOW WHEN DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE AIRMASS BEING SO COLD...THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF BANG FOR THE BUCK FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL.  TEMPS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FLUFFY...DRY SNOW...WITH LIMITED
MELTING OF WHAT DOES FALL.  SO...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE AN INCH OR 2 AT
MOST LOCALS...IT WILL STILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS AND GENERALLY
WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERALL.

ALSO...TEMPS AND WINDCHILLS WILL START TO TAKE A TOLL ON SCHOOL
KIDS...VEHICLES...AND ANYONE OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT HAS TO BE OUTSIDE
TODAY.  CURRENT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE LIKELY NEAR
THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY...WITH EITHER STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  ALSO...WINDCHILLS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES TODAY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TO AROUND 10 ABOVE
ZERO AT TIMES ALONG THE RATON MESA. THESE ARE TEMPS WE HAVEN`T SEEN
HERE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SINCE LAST WINTER.  SO...IT WILL BE A
SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING...ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS.  AGAIN...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...
GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY UP TO 2.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW
ZERO...WITH EXTREMES OF NEAR 20 BELOW ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE COUNTY TO
NEAR 10 ABOVE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  AGAIN...THESE ARE
WIDESPREAD ARCTIC TEMPS THAT HAVEN`T BEEN SEEN SINCE SOMETIME LAST
WINTER.  TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE COLD. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

...AN EXTENDED COLD PERIOD...

NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST UPPER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS
THAT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER JET WILL LAY ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND
THE PANHANDLES ON THU...WHILE THE FIRST UPPER WAVE OR DISTURBANCE
TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MTS THU MORNING...THEN
THROUGH THE DAY THE FOCUS AREA FOR SNOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE EAST.
PCPN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN MUCH OF FRI LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL MTS FRI
NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS FOR THE MTS AND PLAINS...AND IN THE 20S FOR THE SLV. TEMPS
THAT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO FOR PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK UP INTO THE TEENS
BY THE AFTN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY IN THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE STATE STARTING FRI NIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUN. IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...AND INCREASED
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 20S. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPLYING EASTERLY LLVL FLOW THIS ENTIRE TIME IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SUN NIGHT...WHICH COULD FINALLY BRING SOME TEMP
RELIEF TO THE E PLAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY...AND THOUGH TEMPS
INITIALLY WILL STILL BE COLD...WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FOR TUE AND BEYOND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.  SAME STORY FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND ADJACENT HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  EASTERN MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF PUEBLO
COUNTY HAVEN`T SEEN ANY SNOW YET...BUT IT WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THOSE
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTH
OF US HIGHWAY 50 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD BRING
IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS TO BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WITH THIS EVENT...SO GENERALLY VFR THERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD DRIFT ACROSS THE VALLEY AT TIMES.
THEN...FOR TONIGHT...KALS SHOULD START OUT VFR BUT AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS...UNSURE WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL
RETURN.  NOT IN THE TAF CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ062-
064-076-081-082-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>061-
063-066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW