Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Issued at 1126 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

High resolution forecast models are not showing the southwest
winds picking up in some areas of the southeast plains this
afternoon, as was thought early this morning.  The areas that
should see an increase in the winds will mostly be along and near
the southern I-25 corridor and in Baca county. Thus the areas that
will not see the stronger winds develop, are not expected to get
as warm as originally thought and thus have decreased the
afternoon highs.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Updated short term precipitation grids to reflect current radar
and satellite trends. Also reinitialized front end grids with
latest observations.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

...Snow in the Mountains and High Valleys with a Little Bit
Reaching out onto the Plains...

Upper level disturbance visible in satellite at this time,
spinning near the Four Corners Region. System is showing a little
warm air advection banding over northwest New Mexico, originating
over the Gallup and Farmington areas and then ejecting northeast
into Colorado. This whole area of lift will track quickly north
to northeast across the forecast area this morning and then exit
quickly to the north and northeast during the afternoon. The
system will bring several more inches of new snow to the
Continental Divide and the higher elevations of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains today. The San Juans could see another 4-8 inches
while the Continental Divide north of the San Juans and the
higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains could see
another 3-6 inches. The high valleys, such as the San Luis, the
Upper Arkansas and Wet Mountain Valleys, have already seen some
light accumulations of generally an inch or less overnight. These
areas could also pick up a bit more snow this morning, perhaps
another inch or 2 in some areas. The plains east of the mountains
won`t see a lot of snow from this storm. However, a little bit of
warm overunning on top of the old arctic airmass should manage to
squeeze out a few more flurries this morning for areas primarily
along and west of the I-25 corridor. Accumulations won`t be great
but there could be a dusting up to about an inch or so in some
spots. For the rest of the plains, there could be some spotty
snow showers producing a dusting here and there but nothing too
widespread is expected at this time.

Tonight, the system will continue to wind down with still some
lingering snow showers along the Continental Divide.  However,
the storm will be in a reprieve for the most part with just
some spotty accumulations of an inch or 2 possible.  Snowfall
should be over for the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological reasoning
with somewhat active conditions expected over the majority of the
forecast district into the weekend as several upper disturbances
impact southern Colorado during this time-frame.  Then, improving
conditions anticipated early next week in advance of another storm
system by next Wednesday.

Recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and
PV/Precipitable Water analysis continue to indicate that unsettled
conditions(in the form of accumulating snow and areas of blowing
snow) will be noted at times over the Continental Divide as well as
mountain locations into the weekend.

Elsewhere, northern locations of the forecast district have the
potential of experiencing unsettled conditions Saturday as a system
swings by to the north of the forecast district.

It still appears that more tranquil and mild conditions will be
noted Monday and Tuesday over the CWA as drier zonal to
southwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado with
unsettled conditions returning to the forecast district Wednesday as
near system impacts the region.

It still appears that the highest potential for more
widespread/gusty winds over the forecast district during the longer
term should be realized from Friday into the weekend and especially
on Monday.  At this time, the highest potential for
localized/elevated fire weather conditions(over select eastern
locations) is anticipated Monday and Tuesday.

Finally, below seasonal later February longer term maximum
temperatures in combination with minimum temperatures running near
climatological averages are anticipated into the weekend, with near
to above seasonal temperatures then expected Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Some light snow showers and low stratus are expected to continue
for a little while longer at KCOS today, but it looks like the low
clouds should dissipate around 20Z, but there still could be
occasional snow showers in the area this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected tonight, but forecast soundings are indicating the
potential for some low clouds late tonight, but it is a bit too
uncertain at this time to include in the forecast.

KPUB will continue to see some low stratus into the early or mid
afternoon hours, but then it is expected to dissipate, with VFR
conditions then expected. Forecast soundings show the potential
for some low clouds at KPUB late tonight, but it is too uncertain
to include in the forecast at this time.

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions thru the period. Strong
southwest winds are expected to continue into the early evening
hours, and will then decrease. Gusty southwest winds will probably
develop again Friday afternoon.


Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ068.



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