Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211804
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

updated for expiration of dense fog advisory. visibilities along
the lower arkansas river have come up above the dense fog criteria
and therefore have let the advisory expire. there will still be
some areas of fog, especially in otero county into the early
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 457 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Dense Fog along the Arkansas River Valley this Morning...

A long stretch of dense, pea soup fog has formed along the lower
Arkansas River Valley this morning.  Most recent visibilities are
currently 1/4 mile at the Pueblo, La Junta and Lamar Airports.
According to the high res models, the fog could persist into the mid
or even late morning hours.  Conditions are near saturation and
winds are light so see no reason for it too kick out earlier.
So a Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect for the lower Arkansas
River Valley, including Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and
Prowers Counties until 11 am.  This is primarily for the low lying
areas nearest the river.  The fog is likely to be less the farther
north or south you go from the river.

Otherwise, snow is ramping up along the Continental Divide this
morning, mainly over the southwest mountains so far.  Snow will
continue to increase along the Divide this morning and continue
through most of the day into the evening before winding down
overnight.  The existing Warnings and Advisories for the mountains
are on track and will remain in effect until 03z.  Elsewhere, some
spotty snow or rain showers possible over the next 24 hours.  For
the mountains and valleys west of I-25 the primary window for this
would be today with decreasing chances tonight.  For the plains, the
threat for any precip will persist until around midnight or possibly
later over the far southeast plains where the system is last to
depart.  According to the GFS, it is possible that the far southeast
plains, particularly Baca and Prowers Counties, could pickup a more
organized period of light snow and gusty winds this evening.
However, confidence is low as other models are not really showing
this. Something to keep an eye on though.

Another concern is the potential for some patchy fog along the lower
Arkansas River Valley again tonight.  Surface flow looks westerly
behind departing system which should help to preclude fog formation
but some of the statistical guidance at both LHX and LAA suggests it
is possible.  Not in the forecast now but may have to be added in
later. The San Luis Valley may also need fog added for tonight
pending precipitation today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 457 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Fairly active weather pattern continues through the extended period,
with significant new snow for the mountains expected.

Sunday...A quick-moving upper ridge moves across the region, with
the ridge axis passing east across Colorado during the aftn. Expect
dry conditions through the first half of the day, then isolated
showers moving back into the Continental Divide through the late
aftn and eve. Max temps are forecast to be in the 30s for the high
valleys, and 40s to around 50F for the e plains. The showers moving
into western CO in the aftn are on the leading edge of the next
incoming weather feature, an upper low sitting off the Pacific NW
coast.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low pressure system moves
onshore across the PAcific NW Monday morning, with a longwave trough
extending back across the West Coast down into southern CA. This
system sweeps across the Pacific NW and Great Basin on Mon, then the
Rockies on Tue and reaching the midsection of the country late Tue.
Snow is expected to be restricted to the mts through Mon, then as
the upper low crosses the Rockies winds will shift to a more
northerly direction and get gusty for the e plains. This will bring
isolated to low end scattered pcpn chances to the plains on Tue. By
Wed the system will be exiting the area, with showers lingering the
longest over the central mts under lighter northwest flow aloft. The
mts will likely need some sort of highlight for Mon, but will hold
off for the time being to avoid confusion since there are existing
highlights for the same area. As for temps, Mon will be the warmest
day of the extended with max temps in the 30s and 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s for the plains. As the upper low passes to the
north on Tue, more cloud cover and cold northerly flow will keep max
temps in the 20s and 30s for the high valleys and 40s for the
plains. The coldest day will be Weds, with max temps in the 20s and
30s for all areas.

Thursday and Friday...Extended models are still shaky on what
happens closer to the weekend, but indicate that light northwest
flow aloft will keep a few showers in place for the central mts Thu
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions with slowly warming temps into
the 40s for the e plains, and a cold 20s to mid 30s for the high
valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

low stratus is expected to continue affecting KALS through the
afternoon and probably into the evening hours, and there may be
some snow showers in the vcnty at times. During the late evening
hours it looks like the low stratus at KALS will dissipate and
chances for snow will end with conditions becoming VFR. KPUB will
continue to see some low stratus until around 20Z and then
conditions should become VFR. However in the mid to late afternoon
hours KPUB may see some showers move into the vcnty and showers
will continue to be possible into the late evening hours. These
showers in the vcnty of KPUB may cause a period of MVFR
conditions, otherwise expect VFR. KCOS should generally see VFR
conditions, however there is the possibility of some showers in
the vcnty this afternoon and into midevening which could bring a
period of MVFR conditions.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ058-
060-073-075-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



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