Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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886
FXUS65 KPUB 231027
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
327 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Strong winds and high fire danger are the main concerns for today.

An upper level low will be moving acrs southern WY today and into NE
this evening.  This system will bring strong winds to much of the
forecast area today.  Winds are already strong over the mtn areas
and quite breezy in the San Luis Valley.  Strong southwest to west
winds will spread along the srn I-25 corridor around midmorning and
then acrs the rest of the I-25 corridor and the southeast plains in
the late morning and early afternoon hours.  The winds will be
strongest over southern portions of the forecast area, especially
over Huerfano, Las Animas, and Baca counties.  However, the HRRR is
is showing the strongest gusts of around 60 mph occurring over
Huerfano and western Las Animas counties, with 70-75 mph gusts over
the southern Sangre De Cristo mtns, and will therefore issue a High
Wind Warning for these locations from midmorning thru the afternoon
hours.  By late afternoon the winds are expected to decrease,
although it will still be windy. Winds will then quickly decrease in
the evening.

The other concern for today is the high fire danger.  There is
already a Red Flag Warning in effect for the southeast plains today
and see no reason to make any changes to this warning.  Min RH
values are still looking like they will be around 15% and lower this
afternoon, and as already stated, the winds will be strong.

As the upper trof moves acrs the state today, snow is expected in
the mountain areas, with a few inches of accumulation along the
Continental Divide, and maybe some light accumulations over the
higher elevations of the eastern mtns.  Pcpn chances look like
they`ll decrease late this afternoon over most of the eastern mtns
and should lighten up along the Continental Divide.  With the upper
trof moving east of the area tonight, a front will move southward
into southeast CO.  In the wake of the front showers are expected to
develop, but mostly over El Paso, Crowley and Kiowa counties.
However, some areas further south may also see some light pcpn
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Friday and Saturday...As the upper low pressure system continues
east out of the area early Friday, isolated to low-end scattered
pops will continue across the Palmer Dvd as well as the central mts.
By Fri evening the flow aloft will become more westerly, with pcpn
potential lessening and shifting to the central mts. The flow then
becomes more southwesterly on Sat, ahead of the next approaching low
pressure trough, and snow chances will remain restricted to the
ContDvd and specifically the higher elevations of Lake and Chaffee
Counties. In the wake of the cold front, Fri is forecast to be a
very cool day with max temps all areas remaining in the 30s to
around 40F. Max temps are expected to warm about 5 to 10 deg F for
Sat.

Sunday through Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens on
Sunday as the next Pacific storm system digs south across the
Pacific NW. This will bring even more new snow to the ContDvd, while
keeping the plains essentially dry, through Tue. Look for temps in
the 30s to upper 40s on Sun, then warmer with gusty winds for Mon
and Tue with max temps in the 40s and 50s, and around 60F for the
plains. There is the chance that critical fire weather conditions
will return to the plains for Mon and Tue. Extended models indicate
that conditions will then dry out for Wed. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 327 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

KCOS and KPUB should expect VFR conditions today along with strong
westerly winds.  The winds will become westerly later this morning
and will become strong in the late morning or early afternoon hours.
Winds will be about 25-35kts with stronger gusts, especially at
KPUB.  The strong winds could cause areas of BLDU which may at times
cause restrictions to the VSBY. A front moving thru sern CO this
evening will bring northerly winds at 15-25kts thru around 06Z. Some
showers will be possible at or near KCOS after 02Z.

KALS will have gusty southwesterly winds through the day.  The winds
will be about 15-25kts this morning and will be 25-35 kts with
possibly some stronger gusts this afternoon.  The strong winds may
cause BLDU which could create restrictions to the VSBY at times.
Some showers are possible in the VCNTY of KALS this morning and
possibly into the early afternoon, but chances are too low to
include in the forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
evening for COZ227>237.

High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM MST this
afternoon for COZ074-075-087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



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