Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
246 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Warming trend will continue today as the northern periphery of the
upper high across the desert southwest nudges slightly northward. H7
temperatures will rise a couple degrees over yesterday with
temperatures pushing well into the 90s across the plains and 70s-80s
for the mountains. Afternoon humidity values will remain quite low,
however winds for the most part should remain under critical fire
weather thresholds.  Breezy west winds are likely to occur across
portions of Chaffee and Lake counties where brief critical to near
critical conditions may be met in the lower elevations in the
afternoon.  However fuels in this area are not deemed critical.

The next upper trof will move across the northern U.S Rockies and
into the Dakotas early Saturday.  Southern CO will see another hot
day ahead of the associated cold front which approaches the Palmer
Divide during the late afternoon.  With H7 temps warming another
couple degrees, temperatures on the plains should hit 100 across the
lower elevations. Winds do not look terribly strong at this point,
but some spotty breezy west winds 15-25 mph will be possible across
the Upper Arkansas River valley again where an hour or two of
critical fire weather conditions will be possible.  Once again this
looks too brief and limited in coverage for any fire weather
highlights, however this will keep higher elevation snow melt in
full swing. As the front drops south of the Palmer Divide, northern
portions of the forecast area will see some isolated thunderstorms
late in the period.  Thunderstorms will be high based as moisture
looks limited initially behind the front, therefore gusty winds,
lightning and brief rainfall will be the primary storm threats.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A cold front will be moving through the southeast plains Sat
evening, bringing areas of gusty northeast winds.  There may be some
isolated showers/tstms over the mtns and sern plains in the evening
hours, but by late night pcpn should end.

On Sun an upper level ridge is forecast to be centered over the
desert southwest, with west-northwest flow aloft over CO.  The NAM
has dry conditions thru the day, while the GFS shows the potential
for some isolated showers/tstms, mainly over the southern mtns and
portions of the I-25 corridor into the evening hours.  In the wake
of the front, Sun high temps acrs the southeast plains will be
around 15 degrees cooler than on Sat. Temps in the high valleys
should be similar to those on Sat.

Mon the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the AZ and NM
border area, with fairly dry northwest flow aloft over southern CO.
The ECMWF shows dry conditions over southeast and south central CO,
while the GFS has isolated to scattered pcpn over the southern mtns
and portions of the I-25 corridor.  Temps over the southeast plains
will warm to above average again, with temps over high valleys being
similar to those on Sun.  On Tue the upper ridge is forecast to
remain in about the same location, but a slight increase in moisture
coming over the top of the ridge into CO could mean a slightly
better chance for showers/tstms.

Wed and Thu, the upper ridge over CO is forecast to get flattened as
a couple disturbances moves over the northern Rockies and then into
the northern plains states. Highs both days are expected to be above
average, with upper 80s in the high valleys and 90s to lower 100`s
acrs the plains.  Just some isolated showers/tstms are expected
these days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours with
diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. -KT




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