Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231716
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Western U.S. upper low drifts slowly eastward through the Great
Basin today and tonight, with strong S-SW flow aloft across
Colorado. Already seeing fast moving waves of showers and
thunderstorms racing quickly northward over the mountains early this
morning, with a few sprinkles at times across the plains. New wave
of convection forming over NM at 10z will bring fairly widespread
precip to the area this morning, with most mesoscale models
suggesting a rather stout line of convection developing east of I-25
this afternoon, then migrating toward the KS border this evening.
Given rather strong winds aloft and 0-6km shear running near 50 kts,
a couple storms on the eastern plains could become severe, with
gusts over 50kts looking like the main threat. Convection then
gradually shifts east overnight as drier air spreads into the region
from the southwest, though storms could linger along the KS border
much of the night. Heaviest rain will occur over the plains, with
amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range possible east of an Eads to Kim
line. Snow levels will remain generally 11-12k feet today, then
lower toward 9000 feet tonight as colder air aloft edges eastward
across the state. Not expecting a great deal of accumulation as
precip will be diminishing by the time colder air arrives, though
peaks above 12k feet could see a couple inches by early Sun morning.
Clouds and precip will keep max temps today much cooler than the
past several days, with 60s/70s at lower elevations, 50s/60s
mountains, 30s/40s above 10k feet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Relatively unsettled meteorological conditions anticipated over
the majority of the forecast district with below seasonal
temperatures in conjunction with generally above seasonal pops
expected during the balance of the longer term.

Recent PV analysis, longer term computer simulations and forecast
model soundings suggest that upper systems will impact the
forecast district into next week with initial upper system slowly
moving from central Utah Sunday morning into North Dakota by
later Tuesday.

Next upper system located over western Arizona late Tuesday is
expected to shift to near the 4-Corners region by Friday night.
In addition, northerly to easterly surface surges/flow are
projected to impact the forecast district from Sunday night into
late week as a 1030+ MB surface high develops over the Dakotas by
later next week.

The combination of these features will allow for below seasonal
late September temperatures in combination with periods of lower
elevation rain, higher terrain snow as well as embedded
thunderstorms at times which matches quite well with the 1st full
week of Fall over southern Colorado.

The highest potential for stronger gradient winds over the
forecast district should be realized into Sunday night, while
coolest temperatures should be noted from Monday into Monday
night with warmest readings during the longer term expected
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A closed upper level low is spinning over eastern Nevada and Utah,
which is aiding in providing shortwave disturbances and moist
upslope flow over our region. The result is widespread shower and
thundershower activity south central and southeastern Colorado.
There should be only one major wind shift for all three forecast
points, as seen in the TAFs, with the exception of the potential
of gusty and variable winds from outflow boundaries of developing
storms. Ceilings will qualify for MVFR conditions for most of the
day and night. KPUB, KCOS, and KALS should return to VFR
conditions during the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SKELLY


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