Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 051134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

...Winds the Main Concern...

Strong upper jet bearing down on Colorado today.  This will bring
the main weather concerns for the short term.  Nose of 90 knot upper
jet is currently poking into northwest Colorado.  It is forecast to
continue working east across Colorado and drop south a bit through
the day.  As the upper jet moves in, winds in the high country will
be on the increase early this morning.  As daytime mixing gets
underway, winds will also increase across the lower elevations,
spreading from west to east.  Looks like top speeds could reach
about 70 mph along the Continental Divide from Monarch northward.
The mountains of the the northern Sangre De Cristos and Pikes Peak
region could hit about 60 mph.  The remaining mountains could see
gusts up to 40 or 50 mph.  Across the lower elevations, top speeds
should be about 40 mph.  So far this morning, the highest gust I`ve
seen has been 62 mph from the Cottonwood Pass sensor, southwest of
Buena Vista.  No fire weather highlights today because humidities
will be too high.  Regardless, it would be a good day to exercise
fire safety due to the winds.

The other thing to watch for in the short term will be bouts of snow
and blowing snow moving across the Continental Divide, mainly from
the Monarch Pass area northward.  Pacific moisture coming in with
the upper jet will force some orographic snowfall along the divide.
This will mainly occur late this afternoon and evening although it
will be possible just about anytime today or tonight.  Could see 1
to 3 inches along the divide north of Monarch Pass with generally
less than an inch elsewhere along the divide.  Additionally, Pikes
Peak could pick up maybe an inch or so from snow showers tonight.
Everybody else should remain dry through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

Computer models are indicating that the general trend through the
long term will be primarily westerly zonal flow, providing for brisk
winds as well as some snow for the mts.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Latest model runs are trending towards
keeping the bulk of the activity of the first system mainly north of
the CWA, across northern Colorado. A cold front passage late Mon eve
will still introduce cold air into the forecast area, producing very
cold temps for both Tue and Wed. However, the H7 low associated with
this system is a bit too far north, and will keep much of the
snowfall in the mts as well as areas north. The mts may see anywhere
from 4 to 8 inches of new snow through Wed, with the central mts and
Pikes Peak being the focus areas with the best chance of some
accumulations. The Palmer DVD may see 1 to 3 inches of new snow,
while the remainder of the plains may receive up to an inch. The
upper system is still expected to pull east out of the area by Wed
eve, with brisk but more dry NW flow then settling in for clearing
skies and rapidly diminishing snow. The main impact for the plains
will be the bitter cold, as well as some gusty winds for the lee
slopes of the eastern mts. The eastern slopes of the southern mts
will likely see the strongest gusts Tue night and Wed, in the
vicinity of Walsenburg and southward into New Mexico.

Thursday...Temporary ridging for Thu will produce dry but very cold
conditions for the forecast area, with max temps in the 20s for all
points. Thu morning will start off as the coldest for the area this
season, with widespread single digits to below zero temps.

Friday through Sunday...Westerly zonal flow settles back in for the
duration by Fri, with pcpn chances along the Continental Divide. The
brisk westerly flow will serve to boost temps across the plains back
up into the 40s and 50s all three days. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 434 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

Main aviation challenges next 24 hours will be blowing snow in the
central mountains and the winds everywhere as a Pacific jet stream
crosses the flight area.  Wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible
along the Continental Divide from the Monarch Pass area northward
today with gusts to 60 mph possible across the northern Sangre De
Cristos and the Pikes Peak Massif.  Elsewhere in the mountains,
gusts to 50 mph will be possible.  Across the lower elevations, peak
gusts could hit about 30 or 40 mph.  This includes both the KCOS and
KPUB terminals.  KALS will likely stay locked in a surface inversion
and avoid the winds today.  Flight rules over the next 24 hours will
generally be VFR except through any precipitation occurring over the
mountains.  Pilots trying to navigate these areas could see MVFR,
IFR and LIFR conditions in blowing snow, particularly along the
Continental Divide north of Monarch Pass during the late afternoon
and evening hours.  The KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites should all
remain VFR through tonight.




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