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000
FXUS65 KPUB 171735
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

CURRENTLY...RADAR HAS HAD WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR FROM GUNNISON TO CANON CITY EARLY THIS MORNING.  MOST
SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A QUICK SHOWER THROUGH SUNRISE OVER THIS AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED TO
MID 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...TO NEAR 60 NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.  PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN KANSAS.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIG DISCREPANCY THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS AND THE COARSER SOLUTIONS.  THE NAM AND GFS
ARE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION BUT ARE REALLY SPARSE ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KANSAS BORDER AREA.  FOR NOW
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE TWO PROJECTIONS...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN
POPS...SCATTERED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND HIGHER POPS OUT EAST
NEAR WHERE THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK.  AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL OUT EAST ALONG
THE KANSAS BORDER.  HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE AN
MCS DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.  THINK THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THE MCS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
UNDER THE MCS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

TUESDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY OVER THE PLAINS AS A (LIKELY)
MCS OVER WESTERN KS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH QUITE A BIT OF
LLVL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE MTNS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING WE SHOULD START TO BREAK UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND ABOUT 40 KNTS OF DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL BEST
KINEMATICS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF US-50 ON THIS DAY SO THE
STRONGEST ROTATING STORMS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE RATON MESA
REGION. WITH LCLS LIKELY QUITE LOW ON THIS DAY...THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE MTNS...SO
SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY WILL AFFECT BOTH THE FAR E PLAINS AND THE
I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WE DISCUSSED YDAY
ATTM IS STILL PRGD TO BE NOSING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT ON THIS DAY
(TUESDAY)...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE
PLAINS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME RAIN ON
THE WALDO ...AND FLASH FLOODING CANT BE RULED OUT.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LITTLE RAIN. CG STRIKES WILL POSE A THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS
IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY SW MTNS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE
WIND GRIDDS AND RH FIELDS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER
THE MTNS AND VALLEYS. OVER THE PLAINS...STOUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OUT EAST
BUT IT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE STRONGLY CAPPED. IF A STORM SHOULD
DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY ROTATE...BUT WITH SUCH A STOUT CAP THE ODDS
OF INITIATION IS RATHER LOW ATTM.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY REGION-WIDE.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS (15-25
MPH)...BUT THE MTNS WILL LIKELY BE WINDIER. IT WILL BE HOT WITH 100S
ON THE LOWER PLAINS.

SATURDAY...A BIT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LESS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION OVER
FAR SE CO. RED FLAG CONDITIONS...IF THEY OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WILL
LIKELY BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY...WE MAY SEE A COOL FRONT COME DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER. THE MTNS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DRY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 18Z AND 21Z
RESPECTIVELY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THREAT AT TERMINALS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING. KALS WILL SEE MUCH LESS THREAT FOR -TSRA AT THE
TERMINAL BUT ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
VCTS IN THE KALS TERMINAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH A STRONG EASTERLY PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE KCOS AND KPUB
TERMINAL BY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS TO EVEN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR
KCOS AFTER 11-12Z.  KALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT