Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated showers have developed across the far southeast plains
where low level jet has set up on the east side of surface low.
These should continue into the early morning hours before
diminishing shortly after 12z.  Meanwhile...monsoon plume remains
over head with a weak impulse across southwest co working
northeastward early this morning.  This wil be responsible for
bringing more clouds to southern portions of the area early this
morning.

Upper trof across the northern U.S./southern Canadian Rockies will
continue to progress eastward today sending a cool front into the
southeast plains.  Also watching outflow boundaries from convection
across KS/NE progressing southwestward into our area this morning.
Front is still projected to stall across southeast CO today...with
really little to no cooling expected across most of the plains.
Guidance and model blends have been too a few degrees too cool of
late...and with no justification for temperatures to drop off much
from yesterday...have warmed Max temperatures a few degrees.
Thunderstorms will re-fire across the mountains by noon...then
spread/develop eastward across the plains during the afternoon and
evening. Frontal boundary which stalls roughly along a line from
KLAA to K4V1 will also provide a focus for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Dew points only appear to make a marginal
increase...but with the upper level flow increasing as the ridge
flattens today...there could be a subtle increase in deep layer
shear...particularly across northern portions of the southeast
plains.  Thus a strong to marginally severe storm or two will be
possible across the plains. High res models develop a broken line of
thunderstorms across eastern CO during the late afternoon which
marches eastward through the evening hours. Thunderstorm outflow
will will likely aide in driving a more concerted push of cooler and
more moist air into SE Colorado tonight.  This will set the area up
for an upswing in thunderstorms for Sunday.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with main challenges during the longer term continuing
to be pops, temperatures and the potential for strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms(also capable of generating heavy
rain/localized flash flooding) at times.

Latest longer range computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings indicate that upper ridge located over northern New
Mexico Sunday morning will move into southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico from Monday into Tuesday in advance of
shifting west into southern Nevada from Wednesday into next
Friday.

Adequate atmospheric moisture in combination with passing upper
disturbances and surface boundaries will allow generally
scattered...primarily afternoon into evening showers and
thunderstorms to be noted over the forecast district from Sunday
into Tuesday with basically isolated to low-grade scattered primarily
higher terrain pops from Wednesday into Thursday with an
increasing potential for pops once again by next Friday.

It still appears that the highest potential for more widespread
precipitation during the longer term should be experienced from
Sunday into Tuesday and then again by next Friday as available
atmospheric moisture combines with upper disturbances and surface
surges at times.

The potential still exists for locally heavy rainfall/localized
flash flooding from Sunday into Tuesday as precipitable waters
near 1 inch at times in combination with relatively low-grade
steering winds.

Also, the probability still remains for strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms at times(primarily favoring eastern locations
of the forecast district) from Sunday into next week as projected
localized capes, LI`s and Bulk Shear values challenge 1500 to 2000
J/KG...-4C and 30+ knots at times.

Maximum and minimum temperatures should continue to run at/or
above late July climatological averages during the longer term in
combination with continued generally low-grade gradient winds
over the majority of the forecast district.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions expected today...with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected once again.  All three terminals will carry
VCTS...and gusty erratic outflow winds up to 45 kts will be the
primary storm threat.  Could also see some small hail with the
stronger storms...but this chance looks too remote at this point to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs.  Winds today will stay more north to
northeasterly across the plains behind the front....while KALS will
likely see light winds shifting from the west during the afternoon
as storms roll through.  Thunderstorms will roll east of the
terminals by 02-03Z. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE.

&&

$$


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