Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...A Spotty Evening Shower Possible...Low Clouds...Increasing Fire
Danger Wednesday...

A bit of mid level moisture moving through the ridge this afternoon
may be able to squeeze a spotty shower here or there this evening
but shouldn`t be too widespread or organized.  Overnight, we will
likely see a return of low clouds across much of the plains.
Dewpoints remain relatively high by comparison to recent days and
weeks.  Also, winds remain easterly across the plains.  Models show
shallow upslope surface flow will lead to saturation and low cloud
development through the evening and overnight, especially across the
plains in the lower Arkansas River Valley.

Low clouds will linger into the morning across the plains.  But then
by late morning through the afternoon, surface winds will be on
the increase again, helping to dissipate the clouds.  Additionally,
it will raise the fire danger again over parts of the southern I-25
corridor.  In particular, this will impact Huerfano and Las Animas
Counties, where the wind direction will have a more drying, westerly
component coming off of the mountains.  Otherwise, another warm and
dry day around the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...A Spring storm system bringing wind and the potential for heavy
snow and rain to the area Thursday and Friday...

Wednesday night-Friday...12Z runs of the ECMWF, the Canadian and the
GFS and its ensembles have come in less in sync than yesterday at
this time, which keeps uncertainty in precipitation types and
amounts, especially across the Southeast Mountains and the Eastern
Plains. The operational EC remains faster and further north with the
development of a vertically stacked low across the southeast plains
by 12z Friday, with the operational GFS continuing to develop the
vertically stacked system across the CO/NM by 12z Friday. The 12Z
GFS ensemble has the low a tad further south than the operational
run and the latest 12Z Canadian run is in between the operational
EC and GFS. At this point, hard to say which solution will be
more correct, however people across southeastern Colorado should
continue to pay attention to the latest forecasts for this
potentially high impact storm system for later this week.

At any rate, should see rain and snow slowly increasing across the
the ContDvd Wednesday night, with moist south to southwest flow
increasing ahead of the system. Snow looks to increase in coverage
and intensity through the day Thursday as the system deepens across
the CO/NM border. Precipitation diminishes across the ContDvd
later Thursday night and through Friday morning, as the main
impact of the storm moves into southeast Colorado. There could be
advisory to low end warning snowfall across the ContDvd, especially
the San Juans, and will need to monitor later models for potential
winter weather highlights by later shifts.

Further east, strong southerly winds across the eastern plains on
Thursday will bring high fire danger to the area once again,
especially along and west of the I-25 Corridor, though with
uncertainty in the timing and track of the system, will not issue a
Fire Weather Watch at this time.

There remains the potential for strong to severe storms along a dry
line across the far southeast plains late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with a developing dry line across western Kansas
possible retreating back across the far Southeast Plains through
the evening.

Once the system wraps up, widespread rain and higher elevation snow
could develop across the eastern mountains and plains late Thursday
night and Friday, with precipitation winding down from west to east
late Friday afternoon and evening. Regardless of which model
solution wins out, strong northerly winds will be experienced across
the Southeast Plains, with the potential for a High Wind Warning
with some models indicating H7 winds of 45 to 65 kts mixing down
across the area through the morning and afternoon. With the forecast
track uncertainty, it remains too early to pin down precipitation
amounts and types, though most model solutions continue to indicate
significant amounts across the Pikes Peak Region with between 3/4
and 1 inch of liquid equivalent and snow levels down to 7000 feet
Thursday night and Friday. This, combined with developing strong
northerly winds, could lead to very hazardous travel conditions,
especially along and north of the Palmer Dvd, through the day
Friday.

Significant accumulations remain possible further south across the
Wet and Sangre De Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa, as well, though
again depend on the track of the system. Widespread rain develops
across the eastern plains if the further south track is more
correct, though model blended QPF across the eastern Plains has been
cut down to between a 1/4 and 1/2 inch. Again, time will tell. Stay
tuned!

Saturday-Tuesday...Models continue to indicate a rather active
period into the middle of next week, with warmer and drier weather
on tap for early in the weekend, with another embedded system moving
across the state Sunday and early Monday, with another possible
strong system digging across the Rockies late Tuesday and Wednesday.
At any rate, looks like there will be several more opportunities for
precipitation areawide through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

MVFR to IFR cigs will continue to expand across southeast CO
overnight affecting the KCOS and KPUB taf sites by 08-09z. This
will persist until 15-16z Wednesday morning when cigs break. Winds
will increase out of the south to southeast at 10-15 kts at both
terminals during the afternoon with gusts to around 25 kts
possible at KCOS. Meanwhile...KALS will remain VFR with winds
increasing out of the southwest with gusts up to 25 kts by
afternoon. Winds will decrease at all three terminals by 02z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ229-230-
233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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