Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPDATED MOST POP FORECASTS, REMOVING POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHILE ADDING/EXTENDING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...AS AREA OF TSRA OVER THE
SAN JUANS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE UPR RIDGE IS STILL CENTERED NR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS OF 1930Z. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OVR THE MTNS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RAP SHOW PCPN DEVELOPING/MOVING
OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE PCPN ENDING IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING...BUT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONTINUING OVR THE SAN JUAN MTNS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

AS AN UPR TROF DIGS INTO SRN CA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPR RIDGE
OVR OUR AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS PUSHES A LITTLE BETTER MSTR INTO
WRN CO FOR TUE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVR THE CONTDVD.  AS A RESULT THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTDVD TOMORROW.  THE ERN MTNS WL
LIKELY SEE SCT PCPN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE THE
SERN PLAINS SHOULD JUST SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP.  HIGH
TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND AROUND NORMAL IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPR ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK...

MODELS ARE NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE CUTOFF LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL PHASE WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACNW...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED MONSOONAL PATTERN
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND BEYOND. A COUPLE OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN THAT IS OVER WRN CANADA...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA.

TUE NIGHT...EXPECT ISOLD STORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE CONTDVD
AS THE PLUME BEGINS TO MOVE OVR WRN CO. BY LATE WED THE TROUGH
AND ABSORBED CUTOFF WILL MOVE INTO NW AZ/SW UT...AND THE THREAT
OF HEAVY BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SW MTS AND
CONTDVD. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVR THE MTS
WE COULD SEE THE THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING AND RISK OF
SLIDES FOR THE MT AREAS. TIMING FOR OUR CWA`S STAGES IN THE
PRO CYCLING CHALLENGE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE AS THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THAT IS WHEN
THE CORE OF A 100 KT JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH CO. THIS IS PRETTY
ROBUST FOR AN AUGUST SYSTEM. WITH H6 TEMPS AT MINUS 2C OR LOWER IN
THE CORE OF THE LOW...COULD EASILY SEE SOME SNOW FOR ELEVS ABOVE
12K FEET BY FRI MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS US A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM SUN OR MON. THE ECMWF HAS SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF ON FRI AND CONTINUES THE ONSLAUGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A BIT HARD TO SAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL...BUT
THE THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY BE WITH US SO LONG AS
THIS PARADE OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE POPS LOOKED MUCH TOO LOW SO HAVE
RAISED POPS BY AT LEAST 10 PERCENT OVER THIS TIME FRAME FOR BOTH
THE PLAINS AND MTS...WHILE THE MTS WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT HEAVY
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING IN
THE NR 90 RANGE FOR TUE-THU...AND THEN FALLING INTO THE 80S AND
POSSIBLY LOWER FOR THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING FOR THE REST OF THIS MONTH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

STILL SOME VERY ISOLATED TSRA LINGERING OVER THE SANGRES AND SAN
JUANS AS OF 0530Z...EXPECT THESE TO END BY 08Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
AND EXPECT TSRA TO BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT BOTH KALS AND KCOS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE STRONGEST
CELLS. TSRA LESS LIKELY AT KPUB...THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 22Z-02Z PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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