Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190500
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

In light of snow showers on Pikes Peak this afternoon, added in
latest Superblend snow amount forecasts which added a couple
inches of snow to the summit of Pikes Peak Friday afternoon and
evening. It also added lighter, generally trace amounts, at times
through the weekend. Also, adjusted short term grids with latest
observations, satellite and radar data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Currently...

Scattered storms were noted over the mountains while isolated storms
were occurring over lower elevations,especially over the divides.
Temps were on the warm side over the plains, with readings mostly in
the 85-90F range, while 60s and 70s were noted in the  valleys.

Aloft, weak westerly flow along with broad troughieness was over the
region. A much stronger trough was diving southeast into the greater
pacific nw region.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight...

scattered showers and storms are likely for the higher terrain into
this evening, with mainly more isolated activity for the plains and
valleys. Some locally heavy rain will be possible, but enough
westerly flow is over the region to keep the storms moving along.

during later this evening into tonight a weak boundary will move
down the plains and this will shift the winds to a northerly
component across the region. This front may also keep a few late
night showers going across all of the region. We will likely see
more clouds tonight but believe cigs should remain relatively high.

Tomorrow...

The best chance of precip tomorrow during the daylight hours will be
along the mtns/plains interface as weak but relatively deep upslope
flow occurs over the plains. Showers and thunder may form a bit
earlier than normal given the better instability and cooler temps
aloft. Flow aloft will increase significantly...but this increasing
flow will generally be above 500mb.

A more significant cool front will move down the plains during the
late afternoon as a relatively strong trough aloft moves towards the
region, and should be located over the Palmer Divide by 4 pm-ish.
This front may invigorate the precip over the plains and adjacent
mtns interface, and some locally heavy rain may be possible across
the Pikes Peak region by late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Friday night through Sunday...NW flow aloft continues across the
region over the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure sits over the
western US. Models persist in keeping upslope flow across the CWA
Fri night through Sunday, with the best window for pcpn from Fri
night through Sat. On Sunday, there will be another good shot for
convection, but it looks like it will be tied moreso to the eastern
mts and not as much for the plains. Activity across the e plains is
expected to continue overnight Fri into Sat as the upslope persists,
with perhaps a brief lull Sat morn between 12-18z before activity
picks up again. Look for max temps in the 70s on Sat, then climbing
back up into the 80s for the plains on Sun.

Monday through Thursday...The upper high weakens and flattens,
sliding across Colorado on Monday. Models then indicate that another
broad upper trough will develop over the western US. This will allow
moisture to be drawn back into western Colorado, fueling more
convection over the higher terrain each afternoon and eve. Activity
across the e plains is forecast to be isolated at best through the
week. Max temps are expected to climb into the mid 80s to 90s each
aftn for the plains, and 70s for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1051 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main AVN concern will be expected moderate impacts from a strong
cold front that will move through the area late Fri afternoon or
evening. Freezing levels behind the front will drop to around
6-7000 ft AGL. expect scattered storms to develop over the mts
by 1200...then become more numerous as the front moves in.
Stronger storms could produce some small hail and strong winds
in addition to locally heavy rain. Expect an extended period of
MVFR to IFR conditions at KPUB and KCOS from Fri evening into
Sat morning...with periods of rain. KALS will see less of an
impact as most of the precipitation should stay east of the
Sangres through Sat morning, but could still see some isold-sct
showers and a few storms. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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