Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 071126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

...A Blustery Cold Day With Some Snow...


Temperatures were more winter-like across the fcst area at 3am as
readings were in the  single digits and teens across a majority of
the region. Radar was indicating a few weak echoes across the state
but this activity was likely not reaching the ground. METARs were
indicating mostly clear to scattered sky conditions.


As short wave (and associated cold air aloft) exits the region
towards the southeast, warm air advection at mid levels will move
over the region. At the same time an area of mid level moisture will
move across the region. Guidance has be consistent on showing some
light precip developing over parts of the region today, especially
across the central mountains and greater Pikes Peak region. This
activity should develop across the central mtns by late
morning/early afternoon and across parts of the Pikes Peak region by
mid afternoon. The precip will be light, and accumulations will be
an inch or two over the higher terrain while at lower elevations the
ground may turn white, especially across N El Paso county.

It will continue to be cold and blustery over all of the region
today with clouds increasing all areas. max temps today will be at
freezing across the higher elevations of the plains (Palmer and
Raton Mesa) while temps should reach about 40F along the lower ark
rvr valley areas of the plains. Valley will be in the 20s and 30s
while mountains will be very cold with readings in the single digits
and teens. Gusty north to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 35 mph will be possible and this will keep temps feeling like the
20s across the lower elevations. Dress warmly this morning!


Snow showers will continue across the central mtns and Pikes Peak
region this evening ending towards midnight. Snow will pick up
across the southern Sangre De Cristos and Raton Mesa region. The
remainder of the region should remain dry. Accumulations at lower
elevations will be light while higher elevations may see 1-3". Cant
rule out some slick areas on I-25 across the Palmer Divide (Monument
Hill) and Raton Pass areas. Activity should end across the Palmer by
midnight and Raton area prior to sunrise. With quite a bit of clouds
over the area tonight min temps are expected to only fall into the
20s plains and mostly teens valleys.

Winds tonight across likely going to keep up across a good part of
the plains tonight and wind chills will be in the teens. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Other than gusty winds as well as elevated fire weather concerns
at times, anticipate that generally drier and warmer meteorological
conditions should be experienced over the forecast district
during the longer term.

Recent forecast model soundings, computer simulations and
PV/Precipitable Water analysis indicate that the northerly upper
flow pattern of Friday will transition to a basically dry
northwesterly upper flow pattern from Saturday into next Wednesday
as upper ridging remains in place over the western United States.

In addition, generally dry northerly surface surfaces should be
noted into Friday and then again by next Wednesday. Also, the
highest potential for more widespread gusty winds during the
longer term are projected from Friday into Saturday(favoring
eastern sections). Localized, primarily afternoon elevated fire
weather concerns will be possible from Friday into the weekend.

Finally, the warmest temperatures during the longer term should
be realized this weekend, with coolest temperatures expected
Friday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 426 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites. A bkn mid level cig is expected by this afternoon and will
last into the night. Winds will be from a northwesterly component
though the next 24 hours and will be gusty at times. A snow shower
or two cannot be ruled out at KCOS later this afternoon and evening,
but no significant accumulations are expected.





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