Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 012300
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
500 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE.
EXPECT ONE OR TWO LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS THIS EVE...WITH A FEW STORMS ON THE STRONG TO SVR END. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

MOSTLY ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE RATON
MESA/PALMER DIVIDE. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS AS CAPES
ARE RUNNING IN THE 1-2K J/KG RANGE...WITH LAPS SHOWING A NARROW
RIBBON OF 3000 PLUS VALUES ALONG THE KS BORDER. MESOSCALE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR...STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ON THE PLAINS SO FAR...AS STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO
MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD AND FORCING IS WEAK. STILL EXPECTING A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS SURVIVING AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS THEN INTENSIFYING TO NEAR SEVERE AS THEY REACH THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT AS
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES INTO KS/OK PANHANDLE.

ON TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS
TAKING ON A PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT. DRIER AIR SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS DRYLINE MIXES TOWARD THE KS BORDER.
ONLY AREA TO HAVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSRA WILL BE THE
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WHERE MODELS DEVELOP A COUPLE CELLS
LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB WITH DEEP MIXING...AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE WED...WITH HEALTHY
SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS WED
EVENING. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF TSRA THREAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH QUICK LOOK AT 18Z NAM SUGGESTING MOST
ACTIVITY STAYING OVER NORTHEAST CO WED NIGHT...THOUGH BOUNDARY
DOES PUSH SOUTH THROUGH INTO NM BY EARLY THU MORNING. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WED EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE
WITH BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) AND ADEQUATE SHEAR (0-6 KM
30-40KTS)...AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FARTHER WEST OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SET-UP THEN APPEARS FAVORABLE LATE THU FOR
STRONG TSRA OVER THE PLAINS WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
UNDERNEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALONG. OF COURSE...WED NIGHT
CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COMPLICATE
MATTERS...AND IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO OVERCOME CINH ACROSS
THE PLAINS.

FORECAST GETS PROGRESSIVELY WETTER FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENDS UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL GET IN ON THE CONVECTION AS
WELL...AS DYNAMIC LIFT INCREASES AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP
DEVELOPS. IN FACT...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WILL BE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CYCLONES ANDRES AND BLANCA
GETS INGESTED INTO THE WESTERN LOW...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS EARLY AS FRI...AND KEEP THE TAP GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COULD SEE A SEVERAL DAY VERY WET PERIOD DEVELOP IF MODELS
VERIFY...THOUGH TRACK OF EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS RATHER DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS MENTION ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 01Z-03Z. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS...WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL. TSRA
DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING MOST AREAS TOWARD
05Z-07Z. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR.

DRIER WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING
TSRA THREAT TO AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER. WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES
DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY SW WINDS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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