Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Increased pops across the far southeast plains based on radar and
high res model data trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...Monsoon Storms to Continue this Evening...

Some pretty strong convection moving south along the Sawatch
Mountain Range in southwest Chaffee County this afternoon.  A Flash
Flood Warning and Flood Advisory have been in effect for those
areas.  Radar estimates up to 1.7 inches of rain has fallen over the
headwaters of Chalk Creek that drains toward Saint Elmo and on down
the canyon toward Alpine, all in the Chalk Creek Basin west of
Nathrop.  This activity should continue for a while, developing
southeastward along the spine of the Sawatch and Sangre De Cristo
Mountains through the late afternoon and evening hours.

High res model runs continue to develop storms over and near the
mountains through this evening including the I-25 corridor.
Yesterday, it looked like little or no chance along the I-25
corridor for this evening.  But today`s runs, have brought a few
storms back to the corridor, even with some intensity. Based on
dewpoints that remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s along the I-25
corridor, see no reason why this wouldn`t be true.  Another area
where storms will probably gen up this evening is near the Kansas
border.  This area is still under the influence of the old monsoonal
depression that has been spinning for days now.  Hi res models have
convection picking up out that way through the evening hours. One
more area to watch this evening will be the Hayden Pass burn scar
area.  Some of the hi res model runs are suggesting some pretty
decent strength convection may move through that general area during
the late afternoon and evening hours.  The threats this evening will
be similar to past evenings but more restricted in coverage to the
areas described above. Lightning, heavy rain and flash flooding will
the main concerns.  Of course, the burn scars and urban areas will
have the greatest risk of flash flooding. Another risk could be some
local small hail from a few storms.

Monday looks drier but not void of convection.  Although more
isolated and less intense than today, it looks like more storms will
develop over the mountainous areas in the afternoon.  A few may try
to drift onto the I-25 corridor but they don`t look like they will
hold together well.  Across the plains, the models have it pretty
void of convection.  There may still be a few spotty storms around
but they shouldn`t be as widespread or intense as in previous days.
The primary concern for tomorrow will be a mountain thunderstorm
tracking over a burn scar.  If that happens, there will still be
enough moisture in the atmosphere for a burn scar flash flood.
Other concerns from storms tomorrow include lightning, locally heavy
rain and wind gusts to around 50 mph.  In fact, the gusty winds may
become a bigger threat tomorrow due to the warmer and drier airmass
over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monday Night through Wednesday: Upper high progged to control
weather across the CWA with models indicating slightly drier air
across the CWA, especially across eastern Colorado. This will allow
for a down turn in convection across the southeast plains. In the
western part of the CWA, there will be enough moisture for scattered
to numerous afternoon and evening storms across the mountains and
high valleys.  Weak flow aloft will cause storms to move slowly,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and the
possibility of flash flooding, mainly across and near burn scars.
Warm air aloft will allow surface temperatures to be at and above
seasonal norms.

Thursday through Saturday...As the upper high repositions across the
southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley, expect monsoon
moisture to rotate around the high from Mexico through the southwest
US and into Colorado.  This will allow for more widespread shower
and storm activity across the CWA. Blended model data shows this
well.  There will be the daily risk of flash flooding, especially
across urban areas and burn scars.  Best coverage over the higher
terrain, with temperatures near seasonal norms.

Throughout the extended period, critical fire weather conditions
should not be reached, as minimum humidities and winds should be a
little below critical values in the afternoon and early evening


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monsoon moisture will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms
across the flight area through this evening. The best chance of
storms will be over and near the mountains and also near the Kansas
border. Drier air will reduce the number of storms over most of the
plains.  Primary risks will include lightning and heavy rain.
Additionally, local flash flooding, gusty winds to around 50 mph and
small hail will be possible. Areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR GIGS and
VSBYS can be expected through precipitation. These conditions will
be scattered west of the I-25 corridor but more isolated east of the
corridor. Most activity should diminish by around midnight although
isolated activity may linger past midnight.

The airmass will dry out some over the flight area on Monday. While
most of the plains should be void of convection, afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will continue over and near the mountains.

All 3 of the terminal sites (KCOS, KPUB and KALS) will see a chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon or evening. For KALS, the onset
looks to be around 21z. For KCOS and KPUB, the potential onset looks
later, roughly around 00Z for KCOS and around 02z for KPUB. These
times are based on recent hi res model runs.




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