Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Currently...radar indicates a few light showers over the higher
terrain early this morning, but its likely not much precipitation is
reaching the ground.  Reminents from thunderstorms over the plains
have dissipated with dry conditions expected to prevail through the
morning hours.  Temperatures are very mild this morning with mid 60s
to lower 70s expected through sunrise.

Today...high pressure will continue to spin over the Desert
Southwest, while energy in the westerly flow across Colorado will
spark another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures are forecast to rise rapidly by this afternoon with
upper 90s to lower 100s for highs. Expect generally isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains by early
afternoon, with high-res model guidance indicating this activity
moving into the adjacent Plains through the early evening hours.
Lightning and gusty outflow winds are possible.

Out east, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop by late afternoon, and shift southeast away from
the area into the evening hours.  Locations east of a Lamar to Kim
line will see the greatest potential for strong to severe storms.
Large hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter along with outflow wind
gusts over 60 mph are possible.

Tonight...models in good agreement with activity dissipating and
shifting away from the area by midnight, with dry conditions
prevailing into Thursday morning.  Temperatures will remain mild
with generally 60s for lows across the Plains.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Upper ridge begins to flatten and retreat westward Thu, as strong
short wave moves through srn Canada and into the nrn plains. Main
surface cold front will lie across nern CO Thu morning, then drop
south through the plains during the day, with last few runs of the
NAM keeping the boundary along or north of the Arkansas River,
while GFS is farther south and drops the front south toward the NM
border by Thu evening. NAM forecast would keep most tsra Thu
limited to areas near the KS border, while GFS solution allows for
more wwd push of low level moisture and a better chance of storms
all the way back to the I-25 corridor, especially Thu evening.
Main threat of severe will lie in deeper moisture/instability near
the KS border Thu, with more marginal chances in the drier air
mass farther west. Front will likely arrive too late to have much
impact on Thu temps, with perhaps only a couple degf cooling of
maxes across the region. Storms could linger through Thu night as
front drops south and upslope deepens, though instability will
begin to decrease as surface air mass cools. On Fri, cooler and
more stable air mass will cover the plains, with -tsra limited to
the ern mountains and I-25 corridor where narrow axis of modest
instability develops by afternoon. Fri maxes will cool at least
15f versus Thu over the eastern mountains and plains, with only a
few degf of cooling farther west over the mountains and interior

Cooler air then continues to spread south across the state Sat
into Sun, with Sun maxes well below average area-wide for a
change. Plains and eastern mountains will remain moist enough for
sct -shra/-tsra both days, though with cool surface temps
instability for widespread deep convection looks rather limited.
Upper ridge then migrates back toward the Rockies next week,
leading to a gradual warming/drying trend from Mon into Wed. Still
appears enough moisture will linger to produce isolated to sct
tsra through the period, with best chances Mon/Tue. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions through the early afternoon hours at all three
terminals.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon over the mountains, and spread east to near
the KCOS and KPUB terminals through the evening.  Confidence is
currently low that either terminal will see a thunderstorm, with
KCOS having the greatest probability.  Expect any convective
activity to dissipate and move away from the area by 03z/Thurs.  VFR
conditions will likely prevail overnight into Thursday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A weak boundary will move south down the plains this afternoon.
Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this boundary as
it moves south. Overall, expect VFR conditions next 24 hours at
all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be northerly on
the plains this afternoon becoming northeast later this afternoon.




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