709
FXUS63 KDLH 092345
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The entrance of a high pressure combined with clear skies will
  cause temperatures to drop quickly overnight. Frost Advisories
  are in effect for portions of the Northland.

- Rain showers and storms return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Active pattern persists through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak cold front is leading to cloudy, windy conditions across
the Northland today. Directly following, a surface high pressure
will settle into the Upper Midwest. Skies will clear this
evening, and efficient radiational cooling will cause
temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight.
A Frost Advisory is in effect for north central Wisconsin, the
Iron Range, and inland portions of the Arrowhead.

High pressure remains over the area through Monday, but with
a cool air mass associated with the high, temperatures will
remain in the low 70s despite the plentiful sunshine. In
addition RHs will be low Monday but with light winds, so near
critical fire weather conditions are not likely.

This short break from precipitation won`t last long as a pair of
shortwave troughs move through late Monday through Wednesday.
The first round of showers and storms will be sub-severe, with
little instability and a strong low level inversion. With the
second wave, there is a small chance for strong to severe
storms. While the best environments are further south, MUCAPE
values 1000-1500 J/kg and wind shear values 35-50 kts will still
be sufficient for isolated severe storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

Models start to diverge by late week, but still show a few more
rounds of precipitation in the late week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Clouds exit to the south this evening with high pressure
building giving light winds. Some guidance suggests fog
overnight, but the chances are less than 10%. VFR through the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Northerly winds today will become calm these evening and Monday
as a high pressure moves over the area. By Tuesday, winds will
have increased out of the south ahead of a low pressure system.
Gusts up to 20 kts are possible and could create hazardous
conditions to small craft. These winds will be monitored as
Tuesday gets closer.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018-
     019.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004-009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...KML