Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310559
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1259 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A strong, large surface ridge is now building into the region.  It
is currently centered over northern Saskatchewan, and is going to
build down into the forecast area over the next few days.  For now
we will be under a ridge axis over the next 24 hours.  This is going
to bring a cooler and drier airmass into the area, with afternoon
dewpoints in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday afternoon there
should be a decent cumulus field over the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin, but do not currently expect any showers and cloud bases
should be fairly high with our dry low levels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The overall weather pattern for the remainder of this week continues
to look very tranquil for the Northland.  The eastern Canada upper
trof will only slowly de-amplify and move off to the east, and thus,
the associated large area of surface high pressure centered over
Ontario will only slowly move east Wed night through Friday.  While
there will be a couple of weak mid/upper level ripples embedded
within northwest flow aloft that may produce a few clouds, general
synoptic scale subsidence should prevail with clear to partly cloudy
skies, with daytime highs in the 70s to near 80, and overnight lows
in the 40s and 50s, with the coolest overnight lows in the favored
areas of the interior MN Arrowhead region and northwest Wisconsin.

A slow transition to a warmer and increasingly more humid airmass
should begin on Friday as low level flow becomes more south-
southwest.  It is not entirely out of the question that small
chances for showers/TStorms could begin as early as Friday night
across the west in closer proximity to the strengthening low level
moisture plume and low level jet, but the better chances for
convection area-wide should commence beginning later Saturday and
last through the remainder of the Labor Day Holiday weekend.  It`s a
bit too early to determine many details with much confidence, but
given long, sustained low level southerly trajectories from the Gulf
of Mexico, and the presence of persistent forcing for ascent and a
slow moving front in the vicinity, it would seem that there may be
some potential for heavy rainfall and possibly a few strong or
severe storms during this period given currently available mid range
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Skies will remain clear with light winds overnight as high
pressure builds into the region. This along with recent
precipitation has resulted in radiation fog development. Expect
fog to develop at all terminals except for KDLH overnight.
Generally think that visibilities will remain in the MVFR range
with a few periods of IFR at KHIB/KBRD. Will see fog lift around
11Z-12Z. After this expect VFR conditions at all site for the rest
of the forecast with winds less than 10 kts. The only exception is
there will be a period between 12Z-15Z where KINL will see MVFR
ceilings due to stratus moving in from the north. Expect the
stratus ceilings to lift to around 4 kft as the mixed layer
develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  73  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
INL  43  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  50  75  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  47  73  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  53  74  51  70 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DJM
AVIATION...WL


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