Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LITTLE
THUNDER OCCURRING AND WE LOWERED CHANCES FOR THAT AS WELL THIS
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
SHORE AND THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA BUT EXPECT
THESE TO BE DONE WITH BY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME VERY COLD AIR COMING
DOWN FROM CANADA WITH 8 TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING. THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AT KCYD HAD AN 8H TEMP OF -9. MODELS FORECASTING DOWN TO -3
ACROSS NRN MN. FROST POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST
CLEARING AND LIGHTEST WINDS.

CLEAR AND COOL SATURDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM  CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO DIP NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW PORTION
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST.

LATEST NAM/ECM/GFS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A H50 SHORT WAVE DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT MORE
THAN HIGH CLOUDS.

FOCUS TURNS TO BUILDING RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
DAKOTAS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INLAND...WITH EAST WINDS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
DAKOTAS IS ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MID-WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IT WAS STARTING
TO CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ALL THE WAY INTO KBRD. WE
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THESE LOWER CEILINGS...KEEPING THEM THE LONGEST
AT KHYR. RAIN OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  58  35  57 /  10   0   0   0
INL  33  53  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  59  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  40  57  30  64 /  70   0   0   0
ASX  41  49  32  59 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-
     025.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE






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