Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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784
FXUS63 KDLH 301659 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

We have made a couple of minor adjustments to the forecast late
this morning to account for the possibility of isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the far western portion of the Duluth CWA
into early this evening. Radar echoes have persisted all morning
over northwest Minnesota, in proximity to the leading edge of the
925/850 moisture gradient and weak moist FGEN forcing for ascent
in the 5-10 kft layer. While weak, this process is depicted to
persist by most short range guidance over NW/Ncent MN through the
afternoon, while very slowly migrating to the northeast. A couple
of new radar echoes in Koochiching County in the past 20 minutes
add further confidence to this idea.

There have also been a couple of small/weak radar echo plumes
emanating out of the robust cumulus field extending from Pine
County to the Bayfield Peninsula. In contract to the area farther
northwest where the forcing/moisture are aloft, this is in an
area of slightly higher boundary layer moisture that is in the
process of mixing out. While we cannot entirely rule out
additional isolated showers in this are the next couple of hours,
we do not expect this to persist much beyond early afternoon. The
remainder of the forecast appears on track and only cosmetic changes
were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

High pressure currently anchored over the Great Lakes region will
start to shift east today as a return flow develops across the
Dakotas. The south winds will bring a gradual warm up and
increasing instability into the Northland. Have continued to carry
a dry forecast through the weekend due to lack of trigger and
focus for convection. There may be a few instability showers that
are able to initiate this afternoon, and again on Sunday, but
large uncertainties exist in timing and coverage of any showers or
storms will be minimal. Although nam bufr soundings suggest
temperatures reach convective values, anticipating the lack of
moisture and shear will also work to limit more than an afternoon
cumulus field.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Warmer with an active weather pattern through much of next week.
Progressive pattern through the week with an upper low moving
across northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba Tues-Wed, then a mid-level
trough moving across the Rockies into the northern Plains/southern
Canada Wed-Thurs. A longwave ridge then develops across the Plains
and southern Canada Fri-Sat, resulting in a break in the active
weather a return to more seasonable temperatures.

Early to mid-week a very warm airmass across much of central and
southern Plains into the Southwest US with a widespread area of
30C air at 850mb by Tues 00z. As an area of high pressure moves
east towards the lower Great Lakes and an upper low deepens over
the Canadian Rockies, a subtle mid-level ridge will slowly
traverse east across the Plains Sunday into Monday, with
south/southwest flow at low levels bringing this warmer airmass
east towards the upper Midwest by mid-week. Low level moisture
associated with this surge of warmer air will be limited compared
to earlier this month, with dew points only topping out in the
upper 60s to near 70s Monday (north-central MN) and Tuesday (NW
Wisconsin) until a cold front sweeps through associated with the
aforementioned upper low on Wednesday. Late week temperatures
somewhat warm up again but then another cold front comes along
Thursday into Friday.

Chances for precipitation will increase late Sunday night, with
the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Widespread severe
storms are not expected - while there will be moderate instability
at times, wind field through the vertical column will be fairly
light until the front approaches and stronger upper level winds
are overhead. A few storms could be severe, with the main threat
being isolated damaging winds due to wind profiles expected. A
quiet 24-36 hour period mid-week before chances for showers and
storms return Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance in fairly
impressive agreement with an MCS moving across eastern North
Dakota into northern Minnesota Wednesday night capable of
producing damaging winds and heavy rain, quickly exiting by
Thursday. Dry Thursday afternoon through at least Saturday as a
broad area of high pressure builds in across southern Canada into
the upper Mississippi valley.

Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday, with highs
warmest on Wednesday approaching the mid to upper 80s. Cooler
temps by Lake Superior most days. Late in the week slowly
returning to more seasonable temperatures, with highs in the mid
70s to near 80 Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period with
occasional mid to high level clouds and a light south to southeast
wind. Late tonight fog is again expected at HIB resulting in MVFR
to IFR conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  78  57 /  10  10  10  10
INL  81  58  83  62 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  78  60  80  62 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  78  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  76  58  80  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$



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