Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS STARTING TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...PRETTY MUCH AS MODELS
SHOWED. FOG ALSO NO LONGER AN ISSUE ANYWHERE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT...AND THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
PTYPE. A COUPLE QUESTIONS...WILL FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCUR AND WOULD
IT BE HEAVY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS IS DRYING ALOFT UPSTREAM...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM (ONLY FLURRIES). THUS...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE TO EITHER QUESTION APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW. DID
MENTION A SCHC IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT HYPE ANY FURTHER.

CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT (WEAK SFC RIDGING)...BUT LIKELY VERY SLOWLY AND CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SFC
RIDGING. DID GIVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THE MINNESOTA SIDE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.
CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY WARM START TO THE DAY...WENT
WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS (UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S). ALSO...A SCHC FOR -SN ACROSS A PORTION OF NE ND LATER IN THE
DAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT DID REMOVE POPS/WX FOR OTHER
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET
WEATHER WISE WITH ONLY A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT
DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
I94 HWY10 CORRIDOR AND AT AN INCH OR LESS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS TEMPS PLUMMET FURTHER WITH EXPECTED HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND COLDER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WINDS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAKE ON A SOUTH-SW
COMPONENT ON WED. SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO WESTERN ND AND THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL FINALLY WORK INTO THIS FA.
FOLLOWED THE HIGH RES MODELS WHICH DO TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DID
NOT MENTION ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN DRY WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON





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