Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 220946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG AT TIMES AT TAF SITES
WITH VSBYS 3-6SM. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KTS TURNING MORE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTN. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIP
BUT DOES APPEAR IF ANY FALLS AT GFK/TVF/BJI/FAR IT WILL BE RAIN
MONDAY OR AT WORST RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IT WILL BE LIGHT. BEST CHC OF

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.