Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Precip throughout the period and winds tomorrow will be the
primary concern.

The upper shortwave currently digging into the Northern Rockies
will move out into the CWA tonight. The surface low pressure
centered over southern Saskatchewan will move eastward into the
region, shifting winds to the northwest and kicking in some cold
air advection. Radar shows a fairly large area of returns across
western and central ND out ahead of this shortwave, although not
too much is reaching the ground at the current time. Will continue
to keep mostly 20-40 POPs going tonight across the northern
counties, with more showers tomorrow as another shortwave digs
down and starts to amplify the upper trough just to our east.
Amounts will be fairly light with models all in pretty good
agreement on putting out a tenth or so of QPF.

Winds will be shifting to the northwest behind the trough axis
tonight, and the pressure gradient will be rather tight. Winds at
925mb will be not extremely high, in the 35 to 40 kt range, but
cold air advection should help gusts down to the surface. Speeds
will be borderline for advisory criteria, but some spots in the
southwestern CWA are showing some higher values with model
guidance. Will include a wind advisory in the southwestern three
counties for Barnes down to Sargent for tomorrow late morning and

The trough moving through tonight will keep us mixed and there
will be plenty of cloud cover for insolation, so kept lows in the
upper 30s and 40s. The cold air advection will knock back highs on
Monday into the 50s, and the cooling trend will continue with
skies clearing and temps back to seasonal values near the freezing
mark Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Tuesday is expected to be one of the driest days of the week as
upper level ridging and a surface high reside over the Northern
Plains. Clear skies will help keep temperatures in the low to mid
50s across the region despite breezy northwesterly winds at 10 to 15
mph. Wednesday will see winds weaken and shift from northwesterly to
southerly ahead of a developing surface low to the north in southern
Canada. This will help maintain temperatures in the mid 50s for
areas west of the Red River Valley. A shortwave trough embedded in
northwesterly flow aloft may bring rain showers to parts of far
northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota during the
first half of the day Wednesday. This will help keep high
temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s for those regions.

Recent model runs have begun to come into more agreement about the
evolution of a strong baroclinic wave during the Wednesday night
through Friday time frame. A surface low is anticipated to develop
in response to upper level ascent in south central Canada Wednesday
night and move into the eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota
region by Thursday morning. Recent GFS runs have been consistent in
showing the highest precipitation chances across the international
border in northeastern North Dakota and into northwestern Minnesota.
With night time temperatures dropping near or below freezing at the
surface and sufficiently cold air in place aloft... a few snow
showers are not out of the question Wednesday night into Thursday
morning... especially in northwestern Minnesota. Winds will
strengthen on the back side of the low during the day Thursday with
northerly winds at 15 to 20 mph possible. Day time temperatures are
expected to rise above freezing Thursday making rain the dominant
precipitation type. Any remnant precipitation Thursday night into
Friday will likely fall as snow as overnight temperatures drop to
the mid to upper 20s. Friday`s temperatures should climb into the
low 40s by afternoon.

Beyond Friday... dry and seasonal weather is expected for Saturday
as surface high pressure builds behind the low as it progresses
towards the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will remain cool with
highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 20s. Slight rain chances return
to northwest Minnesota early Sunday morning as another surface low
moves in from the north. With temperatures near or below freezing...
light snow showers will once again be possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

All sites are VFR with some high and mid level clouds approaching
from the west. A few of the model solutions have some MVFR
ceilings later in the period as an upper low moves across the area
tonight. However, looking at obs under the low currently over
Saskatchewan, not too many are showing low ceilings. Will include
some mention of low VFR ceilings but will leave out of the TAFs
for now and re-evaluate as the time approaches. Scattered rain
showers will move through but uncertain if they will impact any
TAF sites so will leave off of the point forecast. Winds from the
southwest will be gusty for a while this afternoon, going up above
20 kts in some spots. Winds will shift around to the west then
northwest by late in the period, with increasing speeds mainly
west of the Red River. KDVL could see some winds close to 25 kts
sustained with gust above 30 kts tomorrow morning.


ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for NDZ038-049-052.



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