Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 172036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Shower chances in the southern CWA late tonight/early tomorrow
will be the main forecast issue for the period.

The upper low over southern Canada continues to move slowly off to
the northeast. Clouds have been slowly clearing out with some
lingering stratocu over northwestern MN and the Devils Lake Basin.
The clearing trend should continue into this evening as the low
pressure system pulls further away from the area and diurnal cu
dissipates. Temps should fall off quickly after sunset this
evening, but then slow down as a surface trough developing to our
west shifts winds back to the south and clouds come in with the
next shortwave trough. Most spots should stay in the 40s although
a few locations in the far northeastern counties with latest onset
of clouds and south winds could drop into the upper 30s.

The shortwave currently over WY will move into the upper midwest
late tonight and tomorrow. At this point, it seems that the track
of the system will keep the best precip chances to the south and
east of us. However, the RAP continues to drop some precip in our
southern counties as that shortwave comes through. Model soundings
have most of the moisture around 700 mb or above, so not super
impressed with precip chances but will keep a slight shower
mention going. The shortwave will move quickly off to the east
Monday and skies should start to clear out, during the morning in
the ND counties but not until afternoon further east. With
the south fetch to the winds and at least some sunshine tomorrow,
highs will be near the 70 mark across the west but slightly cooler
in the eastern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A mild and breezy Monday evening is expected with overnight lows in
the low 50s and southeasterly winds under mostly clear skies. A cold
front is anticipated to move through central and eastern North
Dakota Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening, reaching
northwestern Minnesota overnight Tuesday. Thunderstorms are expected
with the passage of this cold front including the chance for severe
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening. However,
questions remain about the northward extent of CAPE and favorable
shear supportive of severe storms. Wednesday and Thursday should
both be quiet days with partly cloudy skies, high temperatures in
the upper 60s on Wednesday and mid 70s on Thursday. Rain chances
will return to the forecast late Thursday night into the day on
Friday. Friday highs should reach the low 70s with Saturday seeing
highs in the mid to upper 60s across the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

MVFR stratus lingers over the MN sites in the forecast area, and
some 2500-3200 ft stratocumulus has formed back over KGFK and
KDVL. The western TAF sites should see more consistent VFR
conditions in the next few hours but KBJI will hang onto high
MVFR/low VFR clouds until later on this evening. All sites should
be VFR after 00Z tonight. Some light rain showers moving in from
the southwest late tonight and tomorrow morning, but mostly look
like they will stay south and east of the TAF sites with clouds
around 8000 to 10000 ft as the moisture is fairly high based. West
winds that are breezy across the northern forecast area this
afternoon will decrease this evening and shift around to the
southeast. There could be some gusts near 20 kts tomorrow, mainly
near KFAR.




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