Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152114
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Temperatures and winds will be the main forecast issues for the
period.

The shortwave trough that brought snow to our far northeastern
counties has moved off into the MN arrowhead. A few flurries
linger, but most of the more significant snow showers and freezing
drizzle have ended. The breezy northwest winds will decrease this
evening as the surface ridge axis moves into the Red River Valley.
Winds will decrease significantly and start their shift around to
the south. Looking on satellite, there are still some patches of
clouds under the high, and many of the short range models have
lingering clouds over the CWA overnight. There may be some breaks,
but think at least some cloudiness will hang around. Even with
clouds parts of western Manitoba under the surface high last night
got down into the single digits. Have some temps in the 5 to 10
above range in the Devils Lake Basin with teens further east.

The surface high pressure will quickly move off to the east
tomorrow. The next surface trough will move into the western
plains, with a good pressure gradient over the CWA. Winds could
get quite breezy again out of the south to southeast, but with a
warm air advection regime think that they should stay below
advisory criteria. Warmer air moving in will be tempered by
clouds, kept highs in the 30s for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A warm front will move into the area from the southwest Thursday
overnight increasing moisture and the chance for light
precipitation. Ahead of the warm front, cold temperatures below
freezing will be in place. Some guidance is hinting at a low to mid
level warm tongue moving into the area. This will allow for the
chance of a wintry mix to be possible along with snow. However weak
forcing for ascent is expected with this warm front leading to only
light precipitation. Shortly followed by the warm front will be a
cold front pushing through from the west Friday morning. This will
continue precipitation chances aided by better dynamic support via
mid level short wave. Behind the front snow chances increase for
northern and northwestern zones and will be short lived as the short
wave and cold front swiftly move deeper into Minnesota Friday
overnight. Cold temperatures are also expected Friday overnight with
Saturday lows forecast to be in the single digits to teens.

As the flow becomes more northwesterly well behind the cold front,
some mid level spin will still be present allowing for the
continuation of light snow in northwestern Minnesota. A switch to
more of a northwest flow regime aloft with no short waves expected
Saturday through around Monday will nix precipitation chances out of
the forecast. Below normal temperatures Saturday will gradually
rebound Sunday to more normal as surface winds become southwesterly
with perhaps some ridging aloft.

Late Monday into Tuesday, guidance is having a difficult time
handling short wave development and progression out of western
Canada and the US Pacific Northwest. This is leading to low
confidence in precipitation and temperature forecasts beyond
Tuesday. They both try to swing the short wave eastward into the
central US, leaving some chance of precipitation in the forecast
some time early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

All sites are MVFR or IFR with quite a bit of low clouds across
the area. A few flurries at times that impacted KDVL, with more
substantial snow at KBJI which has vis down to 1-2SM at times. Any
precip will taper off in the next few hours but clouds will hang
around for much of the period. Most locations will be MVFR across
the western TAF sites but IFR will hang around in the east for a
while longer. Some of the blended guidance had VFR conditions
moving in late tonight and tomorrow but MOS had lower ceilings so
leaned more towards the pessimistic side. Northwest winds with
gusts above 20 kts will become light and variable tonight, then
pick up again out of the southeast late in the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...JR



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