Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREA OF VERY FINE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EXPANDING A LITTLE IN
COVERAGE RIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE MENTION OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW PAST MIDNIGHT...BEFORE MODELS
SHOW IT DIMINISHING AGAIN PRIOR TO MORNING. ONLY A DUSTING
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. OTHERWISE CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH
DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT...AND THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
PTYPE. A COUPLE QUESTIONS...WILL FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCUR AND WOULD
IT BE HEAVY/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS IS DRYING ALOFT UPSTREAM...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM (ONLY FLURRIES). THUS...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE TO EITHER QUESTION APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW. DID
MENTION A SCHC IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT HYPE ANY FURTHER.

CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT (WEAK SFC RIDGING)...BUT LIKELY VERY SLOWLY AND CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SFC
RIDGING. DID GIVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THE MINNESOTA SIDE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY.
CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY WARM START TO THE DAY...WENT
WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS (UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S). ALSO...A SCHC FOR -SN ACROSS A PORTION OF NE ND LATER IN THE
DAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT DID REMOVE POPS/WX FOR OTHER
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET
WEATHER WISE WITH ONLY A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
DAY ON CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT
DEVELOPS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
I94 HWY10 CORRIDOR AND AT AN INCH OR LESS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS TEMPS PLUMMET FURTHER WITH EXPECTED HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND COLDER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING TREND IN WINDS...BASICALLY BECOMING
LIGHT BY LATE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. NOT CERTAIN ABOUT FOG. HAVE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BUT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN. ELECTED TO THROW
FOG IN AT KTVF/KBJI BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROCEED
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THE FOG LIFTS THEN WILL AMEND THESE TAFS.
OTHERWISE STUCK WITH CEILINGS ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE AT OR LOWER
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE WED MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON





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