Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT
IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE (FROM LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS STILL WELL
TO THE NW IN WESTERN CANADA). DID KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR THE AREA. MOST SYNOPTIC TYPE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAR TOO WET
WITH PRECIP UNDER THIS CURRENT PATTERN...WITH THE CAM TYPE
GUIDANCE PERFORMING MUCH BETTER. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE ND TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY (PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CANADA). AFTER THAT...THERE IS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
CANADA...POSSIBLY BRINING SCATTERED THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN FA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LOCATION OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY). A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH FOREST FIRE SMOKE MAY LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE FOREST FIRE SMOKE...WITH
VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY SATURDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE PEAK TIME.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WARMEST ON
SATURDAY THEN A TAD COOLER SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT ANY PRECIP OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SITES TONIGHT. A SHOWER COULD CLIP KFAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...WILL NOT MENTION FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A BIT OF FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF SKIES DO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MAINLY ND TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI


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