Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

No updates needed at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Weather impacts over through the afternoon Wednesday will be
confined to winds and temperatures. Winds this afternoon breezy
with gusts in the north nearing 40mph. However movable snow
remains minimal with visibilities down between 1 and 2 miles at
most in the northern valley primarily Hallock and Langdon. The two
locations with the highest winds observations. Winds gust are
expected to taper off with sundown and sustained values will
slowly decrease later this evening.

Mixing overnight combined with the warmer airmass in place will
keep temperatures in the teens to near 20. This warm start will
set the stage for a warm westerly wind pushing temps into the 30s
on Wednesday. Parts of the southern valley where minimal snow pack
exists may see the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A strong cold front is expected to move through Wednesday overnight
bringing snow and gusty winds into Thursday. Precipitation chances
occupy the weekend as well as the potential for another brief
warming temperature trend. Forecast confidence drops off beyond
Saturday however.

A strong cold front will push through the Northern Plains early
Wednesday from the north as a surface wave moves eastward through
southern Canada. Modified Pacific moisture currently viewed on water
vapor in coming onshore western Canada will move over the region.
Strong low level cold air advection along with some upper level lift
will help utilize the available moisture. Deterministic guidance
hints at briefly moderate snow possible just behind the cold front.
Tightening of the surface pressure gradient combined with strong
cold air advection will provide gusty north winds possibly exceeding
30 mph. This will lead to blowing and drifting of snow just behind
new snow. This could affect the morning commute Thursday, although
the magnitude of impacts remains unclear. Best chances for seeing
accumulating snow will be areas west of the Red River with snow
expected to end Thursday midday. Patchy blowing/drifting snow could
linger into Thursday afternoon as winds will be slow to diminish.
Also, the cold front will cause  to decrease throughout
Thursday with afternoon temperatures into the single digits above
and below zero. With high pressure quickly moving into the region
late Thursday, clearing skies and a fresh snow under arctic air mass
should cause Friday morning lows to dip into the single digits to
teens below zero. Lingering breezy winds overnight will also mean
the likelihood more wind chill headlines Thursday overnight into
Friday morning.

Friday will be dry as the high pressure continues to move south of
the area. While deterministic models show a couple/few waves moving
through this weekend, the ensemble guidance available shows large
spread in specifics beyond Saturday. One wave in particular late
this weekend could be impactful, but again confidence in this is
lower. Degraded confidence continues into early next week, however
the general pattern looks to reintroduce below normal temperatures


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Still expecting some wind shear overnight, with stronger low level
winds just off the surface. Winds will slowly switch around to the
west and then northwest on Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Cloud
heights will begin lowering by later in the afternoon into the
evening, as the next snow event begins to move in. Think the light
snow will only affect KDVL/KGFK by the end of this TAF period.




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