Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WRT
POPS. NARROWED THE AREA OF POPS TO EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A
EDMORE TO MANVEL TO THIEF RIVER FALL TO FOSSTON TO BEMIDJI LINE.
MESOSCALE SOLNS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AS PWATS AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 TENTHS NO
SURPRISE. WHAT DOES DEVELOP IS AFTER 00Z...SO DELAYED TIMING OF
POPS TO LATE AFTN. MAX TEMPS UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
DEEPENS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUE AND THEREAFTER.
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. 700 HPA THETA E
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ADD
ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MON AND MON NIGHT. 700 HPA
THETA-E GRADIENT EXITS THE EASTERN ZONES ON MON AS UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES OVER EASTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP POPS IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.
WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THEN
MOVES OUT THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LOOK FOR A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THEN
00Z ECMWF/GFS STILL INDICATING A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND BEHIND
IT A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR.  CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.  HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRI LATE DAY-NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.  LOOKING
PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH THIS WED-SAT PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOSTLY FOCUSED IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.  FRIDAY EVE FOR HALLOWEEN TRICK OR TREATING IS LOOKING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. FOG LOOP INDICATED ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN ND. SOME STRATUS WAS TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER IA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SD. MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS BAND TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SD AND MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN EASTERN ND
/NORTHWEST MN LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD ESTIMATE
CIGS TO BE AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT AND BAND MOVES NORTH AND EAST.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







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