Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

An active early evening tonight as storms and showers continued to
bring some very strong winds to portions of west central
Minnesota. Special Weather Statement has expired and upstream
winds are mainly in the 18G30KT range so don`t anticipate any
further statements. The strongest winds were along a tight DCAPE
gradient that has slid southeast into central Minnesota. Still
expect isolated to scattered showers to continue through the late
evening hours...with an isolated storm still possible but becoming
less likely. Will keep POPs generally in the 30 to 50 per cent
range through midnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Potential for scattered thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
small hail, and strong wind gusts remains through early evening
as effective shear with values from 25-40 kts in southern/western
zones of the forecast area combine with surface based
instability, a southward-moving mid level impulse aloft, and 850
jet streak.

Chances for thunderstorms will dissipate through the evening from
north to south, as shear and instability weaken and forcing moves
south out of the area. The strong upper low, currently in
Manitoba, moves into northern Minnesota tonight and works into the
Great Lakes region by morning, causing scattered showers to stick
around through the overnight hours.

As several weak impulses push around the upper level system, breezy
and cloudy conditions and chances for scattered light showers will
continue through Monday night. Cloudy skies, close proximity to the
upper low, and breezy northwest flow will make for a cool day
Monday, with highs only reaching the 50s to lower 60s and lows in
the 40s Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

The 500mb low will continue to hold over the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
keeping a chance of showers around, mainly over northwest and west
central Minnesota. With abundant cloud cover across most of the
area, look for one more day in the mid 50s. If the western FA can
manage to get a little sun, they may be able to poke up into the low
to mid 60s. Northwest winds may still be a little breezy through the
afternoon too.

For Wednesday through Friday the region will be under northwest flow
aloft. Most of this time frame will be pcpn free, but chances do
finally pick up again by Friday and Saturday. At this point there
is still quite a bit of difference between the models on the timing
on this next round of pcpn. Some models even dry things out before
it moves into the FA, so hopefully later model runs come into better
agreement. With the uncertainty, pcpn chances are only in the
isolated to scattered range for now. These uncertainties play into
Sunday as well, with some models still showing pcpn while others
are dry. The good thing about the Wednesday through Sunday time
frame is that temps are finally expected to rebound back toward
early June normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR with gusty NW winds continuing through late evening. Model
guidance is bringing IFR/MVFR cigs early morning however will not
go nearly as aggressive and keep cigs generally 2K to 3K. Gusty
NW winds return tomorrow aftn however isold -shra not expected to
mix down nearly as strong as winds as experienced today. Main
impacts will be the MVFR cigs in the 10Z to 17Z timeframe.




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