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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

FOG LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLEARING LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 25
KNOTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING FASTER UNDER CLEAR SKY IN THE NORTHWEST
ZONES.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WINDING DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WERE FALLING INTO
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. SO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WORKING WELL. LOW TEMPS TWEAKED DOWN A BIT IN THE
NORTHWEST OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLEARING LINE FROM NEAR LANGDON TO SOUTHWEST ND.
CLEARING LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS HAVE STAYED
DOWN SINCE SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED. WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE WINDS HAVE
BECOME SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER TEMPS FALLING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLEARING IS ONGOING. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE NULLED BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES AND A BIT HIGHER IN NORTHWEST ZONES.

VISIBILITIES SLOWLY RISING OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES AS PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS EAST. RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION DECREASING OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TIL 4AM CST.

ALSO WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA IS REASONABLE AND WILL LEAVE AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROSE
THE VALLEY. PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SASK/MAN AHEAD OF
NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN SASK. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SYSTEM AND WILL USE BLEND FOR LATER PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHIFTING FAVORED SNOW BAND NORTHWARD
MAINLY ALONG ND/SD BORDER AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH. BASED ON EXPECTED QPF
EXPECT A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AGAIN WITH BEST
POTENTIAL ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA. FOR THIS ISSUED A WSW FOR
THIS AREA UNTIL 4AM. SNOW EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICK LATER
TONIGHT SO LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE A BIG PLAYER. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND START TO PICKUP ACROSS THE FAR N-NW LATER TONIGHT ON BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. WITH CLEARING LIKELY TO REACH THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF AND WITH WIND INCREASING LATER ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FA. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION HOWEVER TEMPERATURES TO
HOLD IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BLO ZERO.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY HELD CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH FA ON SATURDAY FOR SOME
-SN/FLURRIES AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT HOWEVER MIXING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
BRINGING DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZEROES TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEK. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW
BRINGS A RAPID WARMUP FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL NORTH OF
THE INL BORDER WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER WAVE/SFC LOW RIGHT
THROUGH ND. THUS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A COOLING TREND FROM TUESDAYS HIGHS
IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MVFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXTENDED FROM EAST OF BDE TO WEST OAKES ND LINE. WEST OF
THE LINE CIGS RISE TO 20 THOUSAND FT THEN A CLEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR AREA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MORE HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER SASK
WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRI. CLOUD DECK SHOULD THICKEN AND
LOWER ON FRI BUT REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ004-007.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES