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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
718 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017



&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 400 pM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Skies mainly clear to start the night with increasing high/mid
clouds late in the DVL basin as warm advection begins at 700-850
mb. Thursday will see a gusty southerly breeze with thicker
mid/high clouds over the far NW fcst area...though expect some
high based CU or mid clouds into the southern fcst area in the
aftn. Frontal boundary will sag southeast into the DVL basin late
day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 pM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Thursday night will see frontal boundary move southeast across the
area. Warm advection and 850 mb jet will bring up some instability
ahead of the front and cause a chance for a few t-storms to
northern MN Thursday overnight.

Fri-Sat issues will be how far southeast does the front get before
it stalls. Low pressure will ride along the front and expect a wet
period either side of frontal boundary. GEM is more aggressive
with stronger low and moving front back north with rain farther
north and west than ECMF/GFS. Highest pops in fcst SE ND into much
of nrn MN just north of the sfc front.

Sunday should feature a wind down to the potentially heavier
rains of the prior days, although broad southwest flow with
longwave trough anchored over the western states will still
provide moisture feed and intermittent showers. Showers as opposed
to thunder would be favored, with the principal coverage area
stretching from west central Minnesota through southeast North
Dakota. This trough should finally transition well east of the
forecast area by Wed, providing a welcome transition to breaks in
the clouds and developing sun. Cloud cover and northerly surface
flow will keep temps under 60 degrees over many areas Sun/Mon
before increasing into the 60s toward the end of the period.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Skies clear this evening with some increase in high or mid clouds
late tonight into Thursday into the DVL basin. South winds
increasing Thursday. Inversion setting up overnight with higher
winds in the 2k ft layer off surface thus low level wind shear
added to TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker/WJB
AVIATION...Riddle