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000
FXUS63 KFGF 310045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR