056
FXUS63 KFGF 112353
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and storms behind the cold front in west
  central Minnnesota as the main severe threat moves off to the
  southeast. Main threat will be lightning.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a
  cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers will diminish after sunset as what limited low level
instability we have will decouple. Smoke will then be the main
weather impact through Saturday with precipitation chances
becoming limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern
Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has
pushed through most of our CWA. Surface high pressure behind the
front for tonight, then another reinforcing shortwave digs down
tomorrow. Northwestly flow aloft continues into Sunday with
another weak embedded shortwave coming down. Flow becomes more
zonal with a progressive trough moving along the Canadian border
late Monday into Tuesday. Some cooler than average temps coming
down on the backside of this system for next week. Another
shortwave rotating through Wednesday and Thursday, then
northwesterly flow again by Friday.

...Lingering showers and storms this afternoon...

Winds have shifted to the northwest across even our far
southeastern counties, although there is still some 1000 J/kg
lingering near the boundary. Satellite loops show the coldest
cloud tops have already moved east of our forecast area, but
some lingering convective towers still producing lightning and
heavy downpours. Will see thunderstorm chances for another hour
or two before the entire complex moves east. There has been some
shower and thunderstorm activity further northwest under the
upper low. However, by the time that feature reaches our
northern counties later tonight we will have lost daytime
heating. A few diminishing showers will be the main impacts this
overnight, perhaps intensifying again tomorrow afternoon near
Lake of the Woods if there is still enough cold air aloft to
work with.

...Smoke tonight into the weekend...

Smoke continues to reduce visibility to 1 to 2 miles in several
places, with a few spots down to less than half a mile
visibility for a short period. There has been some mild
improvement further back behind the cold front, with the Devils
Lake Purple Air sensor back into the green category after being
very unhealthy this morning. HRRR and Canadian models show a
period of improvement this afternoon and then additional smoke
arriving as the upper trough moves in tonight and tomorrow.
AQA continues for west central and northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Smoke will drive down visibility through the entire TAF period,
with prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions. There will be a brief
break this evening before another batch of smoke comes down
after 06z. Aviation impacts will be tied to that as
precipitation probabilities are low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux