Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A light shower managed to clip the Grand Forks Air Force Base, but
since then it has really started to dry up. There could still be a
few sprinkles over the northern Red River Valley, but than would
be about it. There is still some spotty fog in the Bemidji,
Detroit Lakes, and Park Rapids areas, but think this will
essentially become a stratus layer by mid morning. Latest model
runs have this hanging on into early afternoon before dissipating.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The main forecast challenge is the stratus deck and fog moving
into portions of our eastern FA. Currently it is just affecting a
few counties, or from Bemidji to Park Rapids to Wadena. It is
predominantly stratus, but there is also some brief fog as it
moves in. Do not have a really good handle on what this will do
yet this morning, but several models have it backing into the
Fergus Falls to Detroit Lakes to Fosston areas, and expanding a
little more northward as well. Along with the other mid and high
clouds that are spreading eastward into the FA as well, there will
be a fair amount of clouds around today.

850mb temps look similar to yesterday, so overall the high temp
forecast should also be similar. There have been a few high based
echoes moving from Devils Lake northeastward through the northern
Red River Valley. Most of this is not reaching the ground, but
under the green/yellow echoes, there is probably a little bit
reaching the sfc. Expect this to move into Canada shortly with not
much left behind it for the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Models overall remain a little slower on bringing in any pcpn to
the FA with this next system. This leaves Sunday as another nice
day with highs close to 70F again. May start to see some more
light pcpn move into the Devils Lake region and northern Red River
Valley Sunday night into Monday. SPC has this portion of FA in
general thunder, so left the pcpn type as tstms, although it may
be more showers with isolated thunder. The showers/tstms will
move slowly eastward by Monday night.

Tuesday through the end of the week continues to have good model
agreement with upper low pressure in the western Dakotas lifting
slowly northeast into Ontario and Hudson Bay by Friday night. With
the upper low positioning and expected track Tuesday, a band of WAA
showers possible then the clear slot moves over the FA with the DEF
zone wraparound rain staying to the north and west through
Wednesday. Cold front pushes through on Wednesday with minus 5C
850mb air filtering into the FA by Thursday. As a result the max
temps in the upper 60s on Tuesday will be replaced with low 50s for
Thursday and Friday. Overnight temps will be in the 30s and 40s
Thursday and Friday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The only TAF site that is dealing with the low clouds and fog is
Bemidji. KTVF may get clipped by this, but will leave out of that
site for now. For KBJI, will keep the fog mentioned for a few more
hours, then lift it. However, the stratus deck may well remain
into the early afternoon before dissipating. The other TAF sites
should only see SCT-BKN cirrus for the most part.




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