Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031835
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

There are some decent breaks in the clouds now that are pushing
from the southern FA to the north. However, it also appears that
some cumulus clouds are filling in this area. The breaks across
the far western FA are not moving eastward, so don`t expect much
to happen out that way. There are already more clouds over eastern
SD that are lifting NE and will soon cover the sunnier areas to
the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Low clouds lingering over the area this morning will decrease a
bit through the day today...with patchy sunshine most likely in
eastern North Dakota during the forenoon. Light southerly winds
will help boost daytime highs into low 30s though increasing mid
level clouds will keep overall warming to a minimum.

A low pressure trof will push into the area this evening with
areas of light snow possible during the evening and overnight
periods. Snowfall accumulations will generally run less than an
inch. With a return to cloudy skies and light snow... overnight
lows should settle into the middle to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday and Monday... As the initial low pressure trof lifts from
the Red River Valley across northern Minnesota and into northwest
Ontario on Sunday... expect light snow to diminish early and
skies to clear from the west through Sunday afternoon. Partial
clearing is expected to persist Sunday night... while Monday will
see the next low pressure system move into the area from the
west. Model guidance currently has a low pressure system tracking
from northwest SD into the central RRV during the day on Monday...
with areas of snow overspreading much of the area through Monday
afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday... Model blend solutions show the
surface low track just east of the Red River with highest chances
for snow northeastern ND and far northwestern Minnesota. Snow
chances will diminish on Tuesday as the low continues to move
north. Will need to watch winds as the blended model solutions may
be too low. The exact path of the sfc low does show some slight
wavering with a few models 50 miles west of the blended solution
and thus heavier snow more Devils Lake-Langdon vs the blended
solution which is closer to Grand Forks- Grafton-Pembina-Hallock.
System will be intensifying as it moves north. Blended qpf used
for forecast would indicate potential for 6 inch snows in the far
northern RRV with 4 inch snows down to Grand Forks. Still too
early in the game for headlines.

Wednesday into Saturday... The surface low and upper level trough
will strengthen north of the border with the upper low basically
stalling out in far eastern Manitoba/far NW Ontario mid week with
lingering clouds and chances for light snow Wed-Thu. Colder air
moving in behind the system but the center of 1050 mb high is in
west central Alberta with nose more into eastern Montana. With our
region more in the clouds the temperature spread will not be
great. Look for highs mostly teens and single digits for lows late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Some breaks in the clouds are lifting toward the KFAR area, so did
add a TEMPO group for some SCT conditions there this afternoon.
If present trends continue, some of these breaks may move up
toward KBJI too. Confidence pretty low on keeping things
scattered, but there may be a slow increase in ceiling heights
for a while. Breezy south winds this afternoon will decrease a bit
this evening before switching to the SW-W on Sunday morning.
Expecting some light snow or flurries to affect most TAF sites by
late afternoon or early evening and continuing into Sunday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Gust/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon


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