Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN MB WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH THE FA
TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT TSRA BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY/CAPE ALTHOUGH SHEAR WEAK. BEST COVERAGE SO FAR ACROSS THE
NORTH CLOSER TO CIRCULATION SO WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER POPS THIS
AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS WAVE
MOVES EAST COUPLED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
LOOK SEASONAL.

AS REGION REMAINS IN WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FAVORED
INSTABILITY AND CAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NE FA SO LIMITED POPS
THERE. COLUMN WARMS A BIT SO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH SOLAR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

AGAIN EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

STRONGER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. AS
HEIGHTS FALL LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH E-W BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS SD INTO S MN. CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH MODEL SOLNS
SIMILAR AND REASONABLE GIVEN DEPARTING WAVE OVER ONTARIO FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL A DRY FORECAST WITH LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY IN NW
MN TRAILING DEPARTING SYSTEM. 500MB NW FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
GIVE A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEEKEND TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
TEMPS WELL WITHIN SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR
NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR POTENTIAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





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