Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230255

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017


Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

No updates needed other than some minor tweaks to winds as they
continue to drop off this evening. A few DOT sites (Devils Lake
and Leeds) are flirting with advisory criteria at this hour but
should continue their downward trend, allowing the advisory to
end on time at 03z.

Thicker cloud cover has finally crossed the International border
and into the forecast area indicating some moisture finally moving
in. Still no ground truth to any sprinkles or light rain showers
but continue to expect at least a little bit across the north as
the night progresses.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Main issue continues to be the gusty northwest winds with the
current advisory area still appropriate. Model soundings do
depict some decrease in winds late in the evening so will continue
to monitor for the current 03z expiration time. Although
decreasing a bit, winds will still be plenty breezy overnight but
should remain below advisory criteria.

As for precipitation...there are a few radar echoes currently out
there but have yet to see any ground truth with the continued very
dry low levels. Latest hi-res model runs still indicate the best
chances for any sprinkles/light showers will be across the far
north as the lower levels moisten up a bit.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The main impact tonight will be gusty northwest winds in the Devils
Lake basin region. Deep mixing to 700 mb combined with relatively
strong winds and dry air at low, mid, and upper levels of the
atmosphere has allowed for sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with peak
gusts near 50 mph in this region and lesser values through the
remainder of eastern North Dakota. Expect these windy conditions to
continue until late this evening when the boundary layer will begin
to decouple. Model soundings indicate that Friday will be breezy as
well, but a bit less than today with winds beginning to weaken aloft
and a bit more moisture in the lower levels.

Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will develop tonight in
the northern valley and Friday in parts of northwest Minnesota as
the main trough axis swings through and the upper low moves from
eastern Manitoba toward the Minnesota Arrowhead. With northwest flow
and relatively dry air aloft and at lower levels, expect only a few
hundredths of rain will reach the ground. With northwest flow,
increasing cloud cover into Friday, and positioning upstream of the
trough, expect cooler conditions Friday with highs generally
remaining in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The period starts out with the area still under northwest flow
aloft. Most of Friday night looks dry, with the models showing some
better chances for showers moving in on Saturday. This pcpn should
depart to the east Saturday night. Still could be a little shower
activity on Sunday into Sunday evening, before it finally dries out
for a while. Saturday still looks like the coolest day, with temps
rising a little more on Sunday, then closer to normal by Monday.

Ridging builds in for Monday into Tuesday, with highs Tuesday
looking much more summer like. As the ridging breaks down and the
flow turns more zonal by Wednesday/Thursday, models really diverge
in their solutions. However, a return to more active weather looks
to take place with chances for showers and thunderstorms again.
Temps look to vary a little, but should stay close to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Main concern will continue to be winds. Gusty northwest winds of
20-25 kts will persist into the evening at KGFK/KFAR while
even higher (30-35 kts) at KDVL. The gustiness will decrease a
bit by late evening/early overnight but will increase again by
morning, although maybe just slightly weaker than earlier today.

Other than that, clouds will increase overnight from north to
south bringing some MVFR ceilings in by morning.




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