Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201750
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1250 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Stratus deck continues to play havoc with current temperature
forecast and heat headlines. Clouds are eroding and with dewpoints
in the mid 70s mid/late afternoon solar will warm temperatures
quickly and sufficiently for heat indices to climb. Did lower
maximum temperatures a couple degrees however will keep headlines
going. Clouds have limited instability however very moist unstable
conditions still expected along with severe potential so no
changes in thinking there.

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Stratus being stubborn in burning off and have extended cloud
cover into late morning. As a result temperatures lagging however
once clouds thin we should recover quickly so left maximum
temperatures as is. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The fingers of low clouds seen earlier have expanded quite a bit
now, so that most areas along and west of the Red River are cloudy
now. Also seeing fog along the western periphery of the FA. That
is what is out there now, so the question now is how long it will
last. For now will go with the idea that it will burn off fairly
quickly this morning. This will have to be watched though, as if
it takes longer it could limit heating to some degree. Other than
bumping up cloud amounts and adding fog thru mid morning, no other
changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Main challenges will be the heat and humidity today and also tstm
chances developing again by tonight. Things are quiet right now,
but southeast flow is keeping it warm and humid still at this time
of the night. There are a few fingers of lower clouds extending up
into the FA. One finger is located from Gwinner to KDVL and
another is over west central MN. Otherwise just some cirrus
blowoff from storms out west. Therefore should start the day with
quite a bit of sun again, helping to make a run into the 90s
today. Dew point readings should also rise, getting into the low
to mid 70s by afternoon and early evening. With this combination,
heat indices get into warning criteria over the central and
southern Red River Valley over into portions of west central MN,
and advisory criteria elsewhere. Have therefore matched adjacent
offices with excessive heat warnings and advisories for the FA
thru early evening.

As for tstms, 700mb temps do rise to +12C to +14C today, which
should cap tstm development during most of the day. By late
afternoon into tonight, a weak sfc boundary should progress into
western or central ND. Tstms are expected to initiate somewhere
from SW Manitoba down into north central ND, and track southward
during the evening...and possibly overnight hours. SPC day 1
severe outlook places most of the FA along and north of highway 2
in a slight risk for severe weather. This event may be similar to
the one that happened last night, with large hail, strong winds,
and locally heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Several models linger some pcpn across the southern FA into Thu
morning, so left some lower pcpn chances to cover that. Thu
itself looks fairly quiet as far as for any additional tstm
development, so main question will be the heat and humidity again.
High temps look a little cooler and dew points also a little
lower. May be close to heat advisory criteria across the very far
southern FA during the afternoon, but will let later shifts worry
about that. Thu night into most of Fri should stay quiet too, with
chances for tstms looking likely again by Friday night. SPC day 3
severe thunderstorm outlook places the southern two thirds of the
FA in a slight risk, so large hail, strong winds, and locally
heavy rains are likely again.

MCS likely exiting the area Saturday morning, but as 500 mb trough
moves in additional showers and thunderstorms expected through the
day Saturday into Saturday night before exiting Sunday.  High
pressure Monday with the next in our endless parade of systems
moving through Tuesday-Wednesday with the threat for showers and
thunderstorms.  Temperatures not as hot and closer to normal or even
a bit below normal thru the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

CIGS a pain and have not been cooperating at all. ST deck
continues to slowly erode however have again extended cig
potential into early afternoon. Storm potential looks best across
the north but still enough uncertainty on timing to limit tempo
group for T to DVL with VCNTY at GFK and TVF. When and if CIGS
lift looking for VFR conditions the remainder of the period except
in heavier T late afternoon/tonight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ027-
     030-039-049-052-053.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-028-029-038-054.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ004>009-013-014-
     016-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Voelker



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