Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Predominantly quiet weather is expected through Monday. Low level
warm advection will persist into Monday amidst return southerly
surface flow behind departing surface high pressure as
northwesterly flow aloft is replaced eventually by low-amplitude
mid/upper-level ridging. Models have continued to hint at the
potential for a few showers to brush Lake of the Woods by later
this evening within a zone of stronger low/mid-level warm
advection. However, with deep moisture confined well south of the
region and a quite dry lower atmosphere, any precipitation should
be light. By later Monday, 850 mb temps will climb into the 20-23C
range over the region. With a continued rather dry airmass
entrenched, temps should climb easily into the 80s, with some low
90s possible into eastern North Dakota closer to the thermal ridge
axis.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

The H5 ridge axis looks to pass across the Red River Valley early
Monday evening with southwest flow increasing aloft during the
evening and overnight. NAM12 shows the axis of an H8 low level jet
arcing up into southcentral SD around midnight...then leaning into
westcentral MN during the morning hours on Tuesday. This does set up
for some residual forenoon showers across the southeast FA...but with
more substantive convective development expected late on in the day
as an upper level H5 trof presses in from the northwest. Model
guidance generally favors strong to severe storms initiating in the
late afternoon on Tuesday...ahead of a cold front dropping trough
northcentral and northeast ND...with later development coalescing
along the leading surface trof in central MN. Regardless of the
eventual focusing elements /heat, moisture and energy/...most all of
the Red River Basin is located between the two most probable
development axes...with a good chance for widespread deep
convection in the offing.

Wednesday looks to remain unsettled but markedly cooler...with an
unstable cold pool aloft and residual showers possible...especially
across the northern FA. Seasonably cooler and more stable northerly
flow persists into Thursday...with dry conditions expected.

By Friday... a flat jet stream flow pattern over the Northern Plains
starts to turn more southwesterly as H5 troffing digs into coastal
California. a return southerly surface develops as well... promising
a warmer and more convectively unstable weekend for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period. Winds will continue
to shift southerly through the afternoon and tonight with speeds
generally below 15 kts...although a few higher gusts are possible
this afternoon. Generally only expect some high cirrus at times
with a few patches of mid-level (10000 ft) clouds possible. Did
include mention of LLWS tonight as wind speeds increase just above
the nocturnal inversion layer.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...JAM



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