Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Although no significant impacts are expected, the main concerns
today will be precip chances and winds.

As of 08Z, light shower activity was occurring over northwest MN
just ahead of a compact upper shortwave trough over northeast ND.
The more persistent band of rain associated with the 700 mb
frontogenesis response was mainly confined to southern Manitoba.
As the upper wave moves southeast this morning, some of this
precip should rotate into the northern valley and northwest MN,
but the frontogenesis is expected to weaken southeastward, leading
to a gradually weakening band of showers that should exit the area
sometime around midday.

In addition to the showers, a period of gusty winds is expected
over parts of the area this morning as the surface low drops
southeastward. Models are in good agreement showing a tight surface
pressure gradient (strong pressure rises) behind the surface low
with strong low-level cold advection and 30-40 kt winds at 925 mb
during the morning, highest over southeast ND. There likely will
be a few hours with winds 20-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 40
mph this morning, highest over southeast North Dakota. Winds will
weaken this afternoon as surface ridging builds into the area.

Temps will be cooler today with quite a bit of cloud cover for
much of the day. While some areas may see some clearing later
today/tonight, especially across the south, clouds may hang tight
for much of the area so have not gone too low for min temps
tonight. Some patchy fog could not be ruled out tonight in areas
that do clear out.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Quiet weather will continue Monday and Monday Night as high
pressure shifts east of the region. The next system of interest
will be a wave moving across the central plains into the MS Valley
Tue/Tue Night. Seasonably strong moisture return, especially into
southern parts of the region is expected by late Tuesday. The
southern RRV/west-central Minnesota currently appears most likely
to see steadier rainfall (potentially over half an inch) Tue/Tue
Night within the mid-level deformation zone/warm advection,
although model consensus suggests the strongest forcing and
highest rain amounts will be south of our area.

Wednesday-Saturday...Models in good agreement initially but become
out of phase to end the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday with the
region under the influence of a surface trough. High pressure and
dry weather follow...but by the end of the week the GFS indicates
northwest flow aloft and clipper systems while the ECMWF indicates
strong ridging...with a Pacific NW wave affecting the region later
Saturday. Any impacts will likely be minimal...with timing of rain
the main challenge. Forecast after Wednesday is mostly dry due to
low confidence. Temperatures near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected across the central and southern FA
through the overnight hours. Otherwise expect areas of low VFR to
MVFR CIGs and very light rain to move steadily across far
northeast ND and far northwest MN into the mid morning hours...
staying mainly alg and north of the U.S. Highway 2 corridor. North
winds will increase at 10kts gusting 18kts through the forenoon on
Sunday. CIGS should lift abv VFR across northeast ND in the late
forenoon...while areas of MVFR CIGS could linger in northwest MN
into early afternoon.




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