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400
FXUS63 KFGF 282336
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Current forecast on track so no changes needed this update period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast challenge for short term continues to focus on shra over
the northeastern quadrant of the CWA. Rainfall rates have
diminished, with rainfall stopping at Grand Forks...which should
allow drainage to catchup and reduce street flooding impacts by
the scheduled 330 PM CDT expiration time for the Urban and Small
Stream Advisory.

Latest ECAM guidance continues to have a very good handle on POP
trends and have populated through 09Z, when precipitation should
taper off at our furthest northeastern site, Baudette. Challenge
with clearing skies from west to east and decreasing winds will
be fog potential. Have added patchy/areas of fog for clearing
areas in the 03Z...although with dew points dropping 10 to 15 deg
as well, no mention of dense or widespread fog anticipated. Most
guidance indicating fog (mist) in the 3SM to 5SM range.

Thursday morning will be clear with an short wave ridge aloft.
The next upper wave then moves across the northern tier tomorrow
aftn, with shra/tsra spreading west to east across the region in
the mid- to late afternoon. Although ML/MUCAPE values of 500 to
1500 J/KG possible, bulk shear values only around 25 kts and
threat for severe is low. This thinking lines with SPC Day 2
showing entire CWA in general thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Looks like a boundary will slowly move through the forecast area on
Fri slowing during the aftn over extreme south FA. Intermittent
showers should persist behind this boundary with some thunder
farther south as sfc based CAPEs reach toward 2000 J/Kg and little
CIN. Meanwhile, high pressure will be poised to head south and
east out of southern Saskatchewan. This high will head down into
the Upper Midwest on Sat providing the region with a dry and
relatively cool start to July.

For Sun-Wed...the late weekend through midweek period will be
characterized by a building ridge to the lee of the Rockies moving
over the Northern Plains. Look for a reasonably dry period during
this time with an increase in temperatures. Highs should break 80
degrees by Mon, then a few degrees higher for Independence Day.
The next chance for thunder would likely be on Wed, as the upper
ridge begins to break down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Main challenges will be fog potential and cigs heights. With light
winds, clearing and significant rainfall across the north half of
the fa, fog and low cigs a concern overnight. Will likely see at
the least mvfr vsby/cigs later tonight lower conditions certainly
possible. Lowest confidence across the south where less rain fell.
Conditions gradually improve during the day tomorrow.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Voelker