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000
FXUS63 KFGF 312319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
519 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT DROPPING SOUTH THRU WRN ND...WITH A
NARROW BAND OF JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT EAST TO AREAS JUST SOUTH
OF MINOT TO ABOUT HARVEY-CARRINGTON BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE VERY
DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH. AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WELL THUS LIMITING ANY -SN TO
ONLY THE FAR FAR SOUTHWEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR MUCH THERE. OTHERWISE
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
NRN FCST AREA THIS EVE AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTH WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST LOWS 10-15 BELOW
SEEMS GOOD WHILE ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE SOUTH WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN WCNTRL MN. TEMPS COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND WILL LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE -25 TO -35F RANGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE NRN VALLEY IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM SO WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADV AND HAVE IT
TAKE EFFECT AT ISSUANCE FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN FCST AREA WHERE IT
WILL TAKE EFFECT AT 03Z.

EXPECT A PRETTY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTH WITH ANY CLOUDS
CLEARING THE SOUTH. MAIN BRUNT OF COLD ADVECTION TO OUR EAST BUT
WITH COLD START AND LIGHT WINDS TEMP RECOVERY WILL BE A BIT
SLOWED. HOWEVER LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER MORE
THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE. NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD SUN NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE ND IN THE AFTN AND EXIT IN THE EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR -SN WITH THIS FEATURE. 12Z NAM WAS
OVERLY STRONG AND PREFER THE DRIER SOLNS FROM GFS/ECMWF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WHICH WAS LOOKING STRONGER
IS NOW ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THUS LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY LEFT LOW POPS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH FCST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ACTIVE
STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRINGS
INCREASING THICKNESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IN TURN
INCREASES PRECIP CHCS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...PWATS AND
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN THE 90TH PERCENTILES OR 2 TO 3
TIMES THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ADVECT
SOUTHWARD...LEAVING ONLY CIRRUS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG