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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND BREEZY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN OR
NORTHWEST AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HOW MUCH PRECIP HANGS AROUND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OFF INTO WI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
SFC LOW ALSO HEADING OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S...SO SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO SHOW THIS TREND. THUS...CONTINUED TO KEEP
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE NAM WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA AND BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP QUITE NICELY TO THE LOW 50S UNDER THE SFC HIGH...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY GETTING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. WITH NOTHING TO FORCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND NOT EVEN ANY REAL RETURN FLOW...EXPECT US TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY WARM.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE EASTERN US
TROUGH/WESTERN US RIDGE KEEPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION IN A VERY
QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK WAVES
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR TO A FEW IFR CIGS COVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THINK THESE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT JUST KEPT A MENTION
FOR KBJI AS THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY THE EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A WHILE
LONGER TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN BELOW 12 KTS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR