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000
FXUS63 KFGF 130818
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW
FROM CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THE END OF THE
DAY TODAY. AHEAD OF THAT...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING UNDER A BRIEF
RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND KEEP
THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. TEMPS IN THE 30S HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN CWA AS
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. WITH
THE WEST SFC WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW LEFT.

THE WARM TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO MN TONIGHT...PUSHING THE SFC LOW INTO THE UP OF MI AND
PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S FOR NOW. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT INTO THE 20S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT DIGS DOWN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALL
BREAK OUT SOME LIGHT QPF MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THINK THAT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT ALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF MEASURABLE AT ALL. WILL
JUST KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE SOUTH WILL
HANG ONTO THE TEENS FOR A BIT LONGER. SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE
BELOW AVERAGE AND IN THE 20S. MODELS ALL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE PRECIP
FROM THIS WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF
THE MODELS BRING SOME STRAY POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER MAINLY TO BLEND
WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT THINK EVEN IF WE GET ANYTHING THAT NOT MUCH
WILL ACCUMULATE.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS START OUT THESE PERIODS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EAST AND A BRIEF FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SUN/SUN NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION.

HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD QUICKLY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
00Z ECMWF IS NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED WITH THE GFS DURING
THE TUES/WED TIME FRAME WITH A STRONGER AND SLOWER SFC LOW MOVING
FROM NEBRASKA UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH PLACES SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DURING THE MON NIGHT/TUES PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...WHICH WOULD
AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MVFR CIGS AROUND 18 HUNDRED FT HAVE DISSIPATED. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATE VFR CIGS AROUND 80 HUNDRED FT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES OR EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROX TO NEAR FFM. CLOUD DECK
CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SHOULD CLEAR BJI BETWEEN
1 AND 2 AM CDT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES