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000
FXUS63 KFGF 042114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

WINTER STORM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...INDICATING THE 700MB LOW PROPAGATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY (21Z) INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA (06Z)...AND CONTINUED TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/RAP/NAM/SREF FOR
DETAILS SINCE THEY ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WEST
TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ARE VERIFYING BEST WITH INCOMING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (GEM/GFS TO WEAK WITH LESS SNOW). RAP/NAM
INDICATE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT 18Z...MOVING NE OF THE REGION
BY 00Z. RADAR RETURNS VERIFY THE WEAKENING MESOSCALE
FORCING...MOVING TO THE NE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...BUT STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 700MB INVERTED TROUGH. SNOW RATIOS WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAS ALL TAKEN
IN ACCOUNT WITH THE MORNING UPDATE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...WHICH
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AFTER 6PM SHOULD
RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH DEVILS LAKE INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY...1 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN VALLEY INTO PARK RAPIDS AREA...AND
2 TO 5 INCHES REMAINDER OF NW MN.

WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 35 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AND KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IF EFFECT UNTIL 12Z THUR (EVEN THOUGH SNOW WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED). LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THE WINDS/VISIBILITIES AND
ADJUST HEADLINES IF NEEDED.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN...AND POSSIBLY -SN/FLURRIES.
UNSURE ABOUT WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY...THEY SHOULD BE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT BACK BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS COOL. WILL ONLY WORRY ABOUT THE WINTER
STORM HEADLINE NOW...AND WORRY ABOUT THE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IN LATER SHIFTS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE WIND
CHILL THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING FROM WESTERN ND
INTO SRN ND...THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH WNW WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRIGID AREA WILL
PUT THE AREA AT RISK FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDS ON FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA EARLY SAT AM. AMBIENT AIR
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY SUNDAY EAST OF THE
VALLEY AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE DVL
REGION...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ONCE THE SUN/SUN NIGHT SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH...NW FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MODELED QPF IS VERY WEAK AND CONSALL CONTINUES TO KEEP A DRY
FCST. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...WHICH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE TO BE
MUCH WARMER. HOWEVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
FAR LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

GENERAL TREND WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITHIN AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN VSBY FLUCTUATIONS FROM
ABOUT 1/2SM TO 2SM...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY. WILL SEE THE VALLEY
IMPROVE FIRST FOLLOWED BY TVF/BJI IN THE LATE AFTN. CIGS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN IFR WITH BREAKS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. BY THE
TIME CIGS IMPROVE...WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NW AND BLSN COULD
BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING ANY GIVEN
SITE GOING BELOW 1SM...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON BLSN RELATED VSBYS BEYOND
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BY MORNING HOWEVER THE NW WINDS AND BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER