Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151842
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

No significant updates needed this early afternoon. All areas
showing good response to warm advection through midday. Temps
generally on track for forecast highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Temperatures will remain the main forecast challenge. The overall
lack of much mixing and the deep snowpack for most areas will
continue to keep high temps on the lower side of guidance. Under
similar conditions yesterday, temps ended up being a little
cooler than expected. Not seeing much to change these conditions
throughout the short term and into the early part of the long term
either. Otherwise expect plenty of sun again today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday, along with
the weak sfc winds. Only thing to note is that the 00z models have
pushed any pcpn associated with the Monday night system well east
of the FA now. So a dry forecast will continue through Tuesday
night.

For Wed through Sat...Split flow remains across North America
through the period. In the northern stream, a low amplitude long
wave ridge over central Canada remains over the area but becomes
orientated southwest to northeast. Long wave trough over the
northern Pacific shifts to the west coast of Canada and a long
wave trough remains west of Greenland but weakens. In the southern
stream, a long wave trough over the desert southwest shifts to TX
and a long wave ridge over the southeast US builds over the
eastern US and southeast Canada.

The ECMWf was a faster solution than the GFS with the southern
stream. The ECMWF was trending faster while the GFS was trending a
little slower. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures. A degree or less lower for Wed
and Fri and a degree or two higher for Thu and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Mainly fair skies and light southerly winds throuhg the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Gust


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