Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

No significant changes this update period.

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Majority of model guidance gradually weakens northern band of
shra across the southern fa as well as keeping main convective
band south of the forecast area. Will keep potential for isold
chances however most areas will remain dry overnight. Instability
and cape on the wane so just mentioned isold shra. No other
changes.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Showers continue across the southern third of the forecast area.
So far no T however convective parameters remain favorable so will
keep isolated chances going. So far not much for ground support
from obs so keep isolated. No changes to current forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Main challenge will be any lingering pcpn tonight into the day
Friday. As of mid afternoon, the strongest storms were located
southwest of the Twin Cities area. The actual cold front was
somewhere along a line from Waskish MN to Fargo to Oakes ND. There
has been some sunshine and heating over the northern Red River
Valley, with sfc based CAPE values above 1000J/kg, but little
shear. In the past hour a few showers/rumbles of thunder have
formed north of Grand Forks to Hallock MN. A few light showers
have also formed southwest of Jamestown.

All this activity was behind the main cold front and as it
continues to progress east it will move into an area already
worked over from storms this morning. Therefore not expecting any
severe weather across this FA. Models continue to show some hit
and miss showers/rumbles of thunder across the FA tonight and
across the far south Friday. Since the forecast already had this
mentioned will keep it. Will have to see what later model runs
have in store, as there is a decent short wave and cold temps
aloft. Therefore there could be spotty showers Friday afternoon
across the north too.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Cool high pressure builds over the region in the wake of a cold
front. Expect decreasing clouds for Saturday...but highs will only
be around the 70 degree mark. An upper level trof will remain in
place through late Sunday before the ridge rebounds. Corresponding
return flow on the back side of the surface ridge will help drag
warmer air back to the region to start the work week.

The overall pattern will remain progressive as another system
approaches the area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another
round of showers/storms are possible on Wednesday...with cooler
temps returning for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Some mid level cloud
cover will affect FAR possibly BJI during the overnight with
mainly CI elsewhere.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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