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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR MOVING IN HAS ALLOWED THE DZ AND BR REPORTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHEASTERN ND TO DISAPPEAR...AND
CIGS IN THOSE AREAS HAVE COME UP TO OVER 1000 FT. GIVEN THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK AND LACK OF ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VIS THINK THAT FZDZ IS
LIKELY FINISHED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. TRIMMED THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY...BUT KEPT THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CLOUDS AND BR HANGING AROUND TO
PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ICING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ASOS AT GFK HAS FZDZ ENDING...BUT GIVEN SOME SCATTERED ICING
REPORTS ON ND DOT SITE JUST WEST OF TOWN WILL HANG ONTO THE
ADVISORY JUST A BIT LONGER. FURTHER SOUTH...KFAR AND KPKD HAVE ICE
ACCRETION OBS...AND LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE REPORTS HAVE CONTINUED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY AS IT
IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF MORE FZDZ AND SOME LIGHT
FZRA...SO UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH 4 AM CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND VIS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE STILL IS SOME FZDZ/LIGHT FZRA AHEAD OF
THE DRYING AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS IN SOUTHERN BELTAMI
COUNTY OF A BIT OF ICE ON TREES AND ROADS. THINK THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG...BUT SPOTTY SLICK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND MOISTURE FREEZES EVEN AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
WILL PUT OUT AN SPS ABOUT SLICK ROADS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF KENORA AT MID AFTERNOON MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND DOING SO CURRENTLY IN
THE RRV AND WILL DO SO IN THE REST OF NW/WCNTRL MN EARLY THIS EVE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IF ANY PRECIP FALLS. IT WILL GET BREEZY-WINDY AS
WELL. THURSDAY CLOUD COVER IS A TOUGH CALL. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING...BUT HAVE BEEN FOOLED BEFORE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THU
NIGHT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT LIGHT WINDS IN THU EVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD TEMP DROP ESP NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY. STILL SLIGHT RISK OF A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FRI AFTN-EVE. A FRESH
SUPPLY OF COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRI SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AS WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. A LOW RISK OF LIGHT
SNOW EXISTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN GEM MODEL OVERDONE WITH PRECIP AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXCEPT THAT THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANTICIPATE FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
PROVIDE -SN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH MOST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC
RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS AT KDVL AND KGFK HAVE GONE UP TO MVFR A BIT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SITES REMAIN IFR OF LOWER AND KTVF AND KBJI
CONTINUE TO REPORT SOME BR IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE. THINK THAT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SPED UP THE IMPROVEMENT A BIT AND HAVE ALL SITES
BUT KBJI MVFR BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY
MORNING AS THE CLOUD DECKS SEEM TO BE HIGHER UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
     009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR