Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

INCREASED WINDS FOR THE AFTN WITH EFFICIENT MIXING OF THE DRY
COLUMN SEEING WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35MPH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
DEEPENS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT ON TUE AND THEREAFTER.
PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. 700 HPA THETA E
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ADD
ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MON AND MON NIGHT. 700 HPA
THETA-E GRADIENT EXITS THE EASTERN ZONES ON MON AS UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES OVER EASTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP POPS IN EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.
WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THEN
MOVES OUT THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LOOK FOR A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...THEN
00Z ECMWF/GFS STILL INDICATING A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND BEHIND
IT A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR.  CERTAINLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.  HIGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRI LATE DAY-NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.  LOOKING
PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH THIS WED-SAT PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOSTLY FOCUSED IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.  FRIDAY EVE FOR HALLOWEEN TRICK OR TREATING IS LOOKING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A
NARROW BAND OF CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...ONLY HIGH CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







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