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500
FXUS63 KFGF 261133
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Minimal changes needed for the update this morning. Adjustments
confined to matching the temp, wind and sky trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Minimal weather impacts today as a cool Canadian high pressure
brings light winds and a dry airmass to the northern plains. Full
solar this morning will generate some fair weather CU across the
eastern half of the FA as temps rise into the 70s in all but a
few treed Minnesota locales. As the SFC high slides to the
southeast the winds will turn back to the south during the
overnight. Temps will stay up with increased mixing with lows
Tuesday morning around 50F, 10 degrees higher than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Breezy south winds will develop Tuesday with boundary layer
responding to broad area of low pressure across the western
Dakotas. These south winds will bring a warmer airmass to the
area and combined with full solar highs will be in the 80s across
portions of eastern ND and upper 70s elsewhere. To the west SFC
low pressure will initiate thunderstorms in an axis instability
Tuesday afternoon. Models indicate around better than 2000J/kg of
most unstable CAPE with shear values of 30 to 40 kts allowing for
an organized convective complex to develop. As the activity
approaches the forecast area Tuesday evening the primary concern
will be the possibility for 60mph damaging winds and hail up to an
inch in size. Activity is expected to decrease in intensity as it
moves east into more stable airmass early Wednesday.

Widespread rainfall is expected with the mature convective system
with convection continuing during the day Wednesday as SFC low
pressure slowly moves across the FA under a strengthening upper
wave with Pwats above and inch and a half. Model ensembles
showing widespread quarter to half inch of rainfall with localized
half to one inch amounts expected. Placement of the higher amounts
will be tied to the low pressure track.

Thursday to Sunday...
Split flow remains across North America with northern stream over
eastern Canada and southern stream over the northern states. Long
wave trough over eastern Canada moves over Greenland. Long wave
ridge over the Northwest Territories retrogrades into the Yukon.
Overall pattern de-amplifies.  The southern stream becomes dominate
with short waves moving through the flow.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS

Little change to high temperatures through the period from yesterday
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions today with some SCT CU along and east of the
valley with light winds. Winds will turn to the south from west
to east as return flow behind the departing sfc high pressure.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH/JK
AVIATION...JK