Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR


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