Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 121950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Fairly quiet for this portion of the forecast. The cold front will
continue to move through the FA tonight. Piece of jet energy
moving into northwest MN this evening may combine with the front
to produce a few light showers over northwest MN. Otherwise expect
clearing skies and some chilly temperatures by morning. Looking
for quite a bit of sun on Friday with much lower wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The next system will begin to move into the western FA Fri night
into Sat morning. Temperatures look to stay warm enough to keep
this pcpn mainly in liquid form yet. However, some spots along the
Canadian border in the Devils Lake region could see a few flakes
of snow mixed in. The main effects from the next system will hold
off until Sat afternoon into Saturday evening. Then the models
seem to be in decent agreement in depicting the best chances for
pcpn being from southeast ND over into west central MN. Temps
during this time frame look warm enough for this pcpn to also stay
in liquid form. The main question is how fast the pcpn will then
exit to the east in the late Sat night time frame (06z- 12z
Sunday), when the coldest 925mb temps arrive. Therefore, if the
pcpn lingers longer, there would be a better potential for a light
snow accumulation. A quicker exit could mean no changeover at all
from rain to snow. Either way, the area in question would be for
areas east of the Red River Valley. Sunday looks dry with a little
more sun again.

For Sun night through Thursday...Mon through Thu looks to be a
tranquil weather period as a Pacific trough gradually moves inland
by the end of the period with ridging developing over the eastern
half of the nation. Locally, zonal flow will prevail with just
the hint of a short wave briskly traversing the Canadian prairie
landscape about Wed. Right now this would appear to be the only
feature capable of generating any sensible weather during this
time frame. Operational and ensemble guidance products are in
decent agreement suggesting a dearth of precipitation as a dry
fcst is maintained for the duration. Temps will run a few degrees
above average during the day and even more so at night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Slightly increased the wind speed and wind gust forecast for this
afternoon as it is already fairly breezy across the Red River
Valley. Winds will be from the south this afternoon, with winds
shifting to the west or northwest this evening as a cold front
passes through.




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