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000
FXUS63 KFGF 092003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET ONE AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES
AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CWA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
PICKING UP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH PRETTY DRY DEW POINTS
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EAST AS THEY WILL STAY UNDER THE SFC HIGH
A BIT LONGER...TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO THE 50 MARK WHILE THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 50S.

RETURN FLOW CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PAC NW WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER. NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON HOW MUCH PRECIP IT BRINGS TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THIS FEATURE BUT REMAINS
THE MOST BULLISH ON QPF. THE SHORTWAVE IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND
MAY BE EAST OF US BY THE TIME WE REACH PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW WILL
JUST INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE PRE-00Z
FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO MANITOBA RIGHT
AFTER THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THURSDAY EVENING. BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 0-6KFT WILL BE AROUND
30-35 KTS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA
WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MAINLY IN TWO
AREAS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SHORTWAVES.
THINK IT MAY BE ANOTHER CASE WHERE THE CANADIAN BORDER ALONG WITH
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INTO
ONTARIO...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CONTINUED TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING INTO
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND IF WE CAN GET ANY DESTABILIZATION
BEFORE IT COMES THROUGH. A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD KEEP IT PRETTY QUIET BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD COME
THROUGH SD ON SATURDAY AND BRING SOME CONVECTION THAT COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. KEPT SOME VERY LOW POPS GOING IN OUR
SOUTH FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE AS IT GETS CLOSER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE 500 HPA CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM
HUDSON BAY AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY 06 UTC MONDAY AND BEYOND...EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE SHOWERY
IN NATURE. BIG CHANGE WILL BE IN TEMPERATURES UNDER CONSISTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

SCT-BKN CU FROM 4 TO 6 KFT AGL WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS