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000
FXUS63 KFGF 141409
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
909 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Only change for ongoing forecast is extending fog mention out
another hour. Still seeing patchy fog and a couple isolated areas
of dense fog around Grand Forks AFB and Fargo. No other changes
planned.

UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The showers have finally ended across the Wadena County MN area,
so any further light showers should only be east of the FA today.
Otherwise quite a bit of fog has formed across the area.
Visibilities are widely variable, but they should improve in the
next hour or two. Rest of the forecast still looking on track,
with more clouds across the southern half of the FA through the
day and cooler temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

It looks like today will be warmer with more sun across the north.
Clouds have been hanging around in areas south of highway 2, which
so far has kept any fog fairly limited. Radar continues to show a
few light showers hanging across the southeast FA, mainly over
Wadena County MN. Think these showers should end by morning, but
will have to watch. Models show that cyclonic flow could hold
through the day across west central MN. Therefore, cumulus could
fill in again even if there is some decrease in clouds across that
area. Also some of the light showers around Wadena County could
last into the morning hours. Wind speeds will stay on the lower
end today into tonight. Therefore as clouds decrease tonight,
there may be some fog again. The clearing may be short lived, as
models are bringing increasing clouds for areas west of the Red
River Valley after midnight. This may limit fog formation across
southeast ND, but if the clouds do not arrive that fast there may
be fog further west. Kept most mention of fog across the southern
Red River Valley into portions of northwest and west central MN.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Another rainfall event looks to spread into the FA during the
Tuesday to Wed night time frame. For once, will have to think
about back to back heavy rainfall, and the potential for ponding
of water. This is due to the fact that some areas across southeast
ND just received about 1 to 6 inches of rain. However it has been
dry down in that area, and think most of that should have time to
soak in.

To start, the models have slowed down the arrival of this next
system. Removed any mention of pcpn Monday night. Even through
much of Tuesday, the models keep most pcpn west and south of the
FA. At this point, it looks like Tue night into Wed would bring
the best chances for rain. Sfc low pressure sets up south of the
FA Tue night, with a low level jet pushing decent moisture
northward. By Wed, this is accompanied by a much stronger short
wave, especially into MN. Models show quite a bit of spread in
exactly where the heavier rain falls, some keeping it south of the
FA, but some in this FA. Instability is pretty minimal throughout,
so the chance of too much thunder looks minimal, which could limit
the heavier rainfall rates. Have pretty much stuck with the idea
shown by WPC, of 1 to 1.50 inches of rain south of a line from
Valley City ND to Bemidji MN. Without much thunder, not sure how
much higher localized amounts could be. SPC did remove the
marginal risk for severe Tue and Tue night, which makes sense
given the lack of much instability. So at this point do not think
the 1 to 1.50 inches of rain will cause any issues, but will
continue to monitor later model runs.

Thursday through Sunday...A relatively active and progressive
pattern continues to finish off the work week and through the
weekend. After dry conditions during the day Thursday the next
wave will bring rain chances back to the region Late Thursday
night into Friday. Shear and cape values not all that impressive
with boundary passage. The start of the weekend looks relatively
dry at this point with rain chances returning Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures through the period look pretty close to seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

TAFs are a little tricky this morning, due to fog and low clouds.
The fog is highly variable and not occurring everywhere, but it
will be around for another 1-2 hours where it is occurring. The
low clouds will mainly affect KBJI and KFAR today, while the other
TAF sites should be much better with more sun. If there are any
holes at KBJI/KFAR, they may fill back in with cumulus by late
morning into the afternoon. There will likely be cumulus at
KDVL/KGFK/KTVF too, but more scattered. Decreasing clouds should
occur everywhere tonight, but with light winds, that brings fog
back into the forecast. Best prospects for fog will again be at
KFAR and KBJI, but it could again affect other sites too. For now
will only mention it at KFAR and KBJI, and will let later shifts
monitor.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Voelker
AVIATION...Godon