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000
FXUS63 KFGF 090558
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1158 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WARM ADVECTION EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
NOW COVERING ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ZONES. MAINLY SEEING
CIRRUS...AND THERE IS A BREAK OVER WEST CENTRAL ND...BUT ONGOING
IDEA OF STEADY TO POSSIBLY RISING TEMPS IN THE WEST STILL LOOKS
GOOD. WE MAY SEE A DEG OR TWO OF COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR
BRIEFLY...BUT BY EARLY SUN MORNING MORE CLOUDS (NOW OVER MT)
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA. INCREASED SKY AND MADE MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO FAR EASTERN ZONES THAT HAVE WEAKER
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STILL CLEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
SKY COVER TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID CLOUD DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TOMORROW BUT
WILL ADDRESS AFT 00Z DATA HAS CAME IN AND BEEN ANALYZED. SOUTH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN
TOMORROW...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND THE 40
MARK TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANCE OF PRECIP EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF
7-DAY FCST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER. TEMPS A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST ARE 50F AT EDIK AND NEARLY 40F AT KBIS. MODELS PUSH THE 0C
925MB ISOTHERM INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN
INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
THE GRADIENT WILL STAY INTACT TOO WHICH SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
FROM FALLING OFF VERY MUCH. ALL THESE FACTORS BASICALLY SAY IT
LOOKS LIKE A MILD NIGHT. NOT SURE IF TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE BUT
SHOULD AT LEAST BE STEADY IN PLACES. 850MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO
BE ABOUT 2C ACROSS THE NORTH RISING TO ABOUT 8C IN THE SOUTH.
AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND WHICH MAY TEMPER THE
RISE SOMEWHAT. DO LOOK TO HAVE A FAVORABLE WEST WIND SO WILL KEEP
WITH THE IDEA OF UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
NOT SURE ABOUT PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT. 12Z GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL
TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE NE WHILE OTHER MODELS WERE DRY.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WILL SEE SOME COOLING ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2C
IN THE NORTH TO 2C IN THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE ALSO LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING BEING FROM THE NW. HOWEVER A WARM START AND SOME SUN COULD
LEAD TO TEMPS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE FAR
SOUTH WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY NIGHT. AMERICAN MODELS ARE DRY
WHILE THE EC/GEM KEEP SOME PCPN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. TEMPS
COOL SOME FOR TUE IN THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REGION WILL TRANSITION BACK
INTO MID LEVEL NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE TO OUR NORTH SO PCPN
CHANCES LOOK SLIM. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE
BUT SEASONAL WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WILL SEE CIRRUS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME MID CLOUD ACROSS EASTERN
ND...AND WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY NOON TIME. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF PDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER