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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS SEEM ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE ON TIMING OF A SFC TROUGH FOR SUNDAY. WILL
FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION (ECMWF/GFS/GEM).

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES (MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).

SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
AGAIN PLACE THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LEADING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG. SPC
INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE EXTENDED WEST
INTO ALL AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT (30-40
KNOTS) FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 100F HEAT INDEX WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONGER SIGNAL
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE WEST COAST). MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH HOW FAR
NORTH THE VERY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT SEVERE THREAT AREA. WITH THAT SAID...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN FA...WHICH SHOULD BE CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE ND AND WC MN.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 06 UTC THURSDAY...DIVERGING THEREAFTER WITH TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...500
HPA FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
PRECIP THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...
BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
OPERATIONAL ECMWF...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST ALL BLEND POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAY TO DAY TEMP FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO FAR AFFECTING KTVF/KBJI. NOT LOOKING LIKE
THIS WILL LAST TOO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL MONITOR. MAIN
QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
FIRES OR HOLD TOGETHER. AMERICAN MODELS SHOW MORE PCPN THAN THE
OTHERS SO HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY MENTION SOME VCTS FOR KGFK/KTVF/KBJI
FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING WINDS SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON