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000
FXUS63 KFGF 131503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

STILL SEEING A FEW OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN
REPORTING SPRINKLES. HOWEVER THESE CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY FAST TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FA PRIOR TO NOON. WIND SPEEDS
ARE BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A FEW SITES ALONG THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY BUT THINK THEY ARE PEAKING NOW. AS WINDS SWITCH
TO A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THEY SHOULD DECREASE JUST A
LITTLE. FORECAST FOLLOWING THESE THOUGHTS JUST FINE SO NO UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

ISSUE TODAY IS MORNING PRECIP CHANCES THEN WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES. STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TO
START THE DAY. SOME RADAR RETURNS BUT SO FAR THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
BLO 700 MB INHIBITING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. I
SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MID MORNING...AND DID TRIM
BACK POPS. STILL THOUGH MENTIONED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD RW- IN NW MN
THRU MID MORNING.

HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN OUT AND MOVE EAST TODAY WITH INCREASING SUN IN
ERN ND THIS AFTN. SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO DVL-JMS REGION MIDDAY
AND THEN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID AFTN. MIXING BEHIND FRONT
IS QUITE STRONG UP TO 750 MB WHERE WINDS TO 30-35 KTS TO MIX DOWN.
SUSTAINED WINDS LIKEY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN DVL REGION...JUSTS
SHY OF WIND ADVISORY. WITH FAVORED WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AND WARM
AIR ALOFT...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S IN ERN ND.

FARTHER EAST INTO MINNESOTA...HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT MORE ON CLOUD COVER AS
TROUGH DOESNT PASS BEMIDJI AREA TIL 03Z AND BY THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY. SO LESS OF A WARM PUSH AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE
VALLEY....BUT STILL EXPECT UPPER 60S IN THE FAR EAST TO NR 80
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET WITH WIND DIRECTION
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

MORE POTENT SFC LOW TO MOVE INTO SRN SASK MON NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
THRU SRN MANTIOBA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO ONTARIO TUES AFTN.
EXPECTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AHD OF FEATURE JUST
AHD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY 18Z
TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN MODELS SHOW QUITE DRY SUB 700 MB LAYER AND
THUS PRECIP POTENTIAL NOT AS GREAT AS WOULD THINK...WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CANADA ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC LOW. IT DOES
LOOK WINDY SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW AS IT MOVES THRU WITH MIXING UP TO
750 MB AGAIN TUES AFTN WHERE WINDS TO 35-45 KTS TO MIX DOWN.
OVERALL TREND FROM 00Z MODELS IS A BIT LESS WIND THAN 12Z SUN
RUNS...BUT STILL DEEP MIXING COMBINED WITH A SHOT OF COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WINDS FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WRN FCST AREA.

AS FOR MODEL DEW PTS...THEY REMAIN WAY TOO HIGH AND WENT
SIGNIFCANTLY LOWER THRU THIS PD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WINDS TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND WED-THU PERIOD WILL SEE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH IN CONTROL. TEMPS WILL
BE NR OR JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 70S FOR HIGHS.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS-UP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MEDIUM- RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY TO MN/IA/WI BY
SUNDAY. WITH PROLONGED DIVERGENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING
COPIOUS MOISTURE (PWATS 1.0-1.75 INCH) NORTHWARD...EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES DO NOT ALLOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM ALL
BLEND GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
70S...BUT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

ISSUE TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND THEN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS AHD OF SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING-AFTN WITH
15-25 KTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
AROUND 18Z....RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 21Z AND THEN PRETTY MUCH
WASH OUT AS IT MAKES IT TOWARD BEMIDJI AROUND 03Z. LOOK FOR A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS...ESP DVL BASIN...THIS AFTN. VFR SKY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM
18 TO 01 UTC THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING...
BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR OPTIMAL WARMING...
COMBINED WITH A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE RH WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT
ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE ABOVE 25 MPH. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
AFTER DAYBREAK AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES IF
NEEDED.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN. VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WIND FROM 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE STILL EXISTS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE
AND TIMING OF EXPECTED DRYING. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AND RE-EVALUATE LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. RIVER STAGES AT DRAYTON AND
PEMBINA ARE CONTINUING A SLOW RECESSION...WITH STAGES AT EAST GRAND
FORKS AND OSLO FALLING MORE RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER POINTS
ON THE MAINSTEM RED AND ON THE ND/MN TRIBUTARIES SHOW RECEDING OR
NEARLY STEADY LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI