Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252056
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON





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