Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212131
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Much of the forecast area is currently squeezed between a weak
Clipper system crossing central Manitoba... and a Colorado Low
type winter storm still taking shape in the Central Plains. The
northern Clipper will continue to push a broad area of low clouds
down through the northern Red River Valley and portions of
Northwest MN tonight through Monday morning. The southern Colorado
Low will continue to pump mid and upper level moisture over the
southern RRV and west central MN... while the lower clouds and
snow should mainly impact portions of eastern South Dakota and
southern MN.

Of local concern...areas of dense fog are likely to persist or
redevelop over portions of the Devils Lake Basin from now through
late Monday morning. A fairly stagnant airmass is in position
there, with little to no cloud cover aloft... allowing for
additional radiative cooling with sunset.

Over portions of northwest Minnesota where patchy fog has been
occurring... the more widespread low to mid level cloud cover
should inhibit widespread dense fog, but it will allow patchy
ground fog to form throughout the overnight period.

Otherwise... expect mainly cloudy conditions with a light
northeast boundary layer flow across the area overnight tonight...
and through the day on Monday. A slight cool advection will allow
temperatures to settle into the upper teens and lower twenties
overnight... than warm only into the lower to mid 20s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The general pattern through Friday is dominated by upper level
ridging. This leads to little to no expected precipitation and above
normal temperatures. Highs in the twenties Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Saturday with Thursday and Friday warmer in the thirties. Cooler
than normal temperatures look likely to return Sunday.

A weak clipper is still expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
clipper could bring a short period of light snow in northwest
Minnesota as it passes.

The next chance for snow comes late this week as a low develops off
of the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Upper
Midwest. Deterministic models still give different tracks through
the Upper Midwest for the low. Looking to ensemble results, the GEFS
members have many differences and also significant run to run
variability. So while the different deterministic model results
consistently have snow in the area, mainly northwest Minnesota,
confidence in the location and amount of snow is still low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Updated at 330 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Along and south of the hIghway 200 corridor, expect VFR condition
through the afternoon and early evening hours. After 00z...
expect MVFR CIGS to overspread the area and persist through
Monday. North of the Highway 200 corridor... expect widespread
MVFR CIGS with patchy MVFR VSBYS in fog through 20z. After
17z...expect widespread MVFR CIGS in low clouds throughout the
remainder of the day and though much of Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory til 10am for NDZ006-014-015-024.
MN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Gust


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