Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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111
FXUS63 KFGF 270000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Tweaked winds and sky for tonight. No other changes at this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloud cover and fog redevelopment throughout the period will be
the main forecast issue.

Water vapor loop shows southwesterly flow aloft with a weak
shortwave approaching the Dakotas through eastern MT. A few of the
global models have some spits of precip later tonight as that
shortwave comes through, but none of high resolution models do. Given
that current radar returns to our west are not very impressive
will lean towards the drier solution. The bigger issue will be
cloud cover. Clouds have pushed out of the Devils Lake Basin this
afternoon, although the clearing line seems to have stalled on
top of a Hallock to Grand Forks to Cooperstown line. Weak surface
high pressure across the area will not move much tonight. winds
will be be fairly light again, with a little bit better pressure
gradient across the Devils Lake Basin. Think that clouds will
begin to fill in again as the upper shortwave trough approaches,
plus there is the possibility of stratus expanding back to the
northwest. Fog formation will also be possible, and think the best
chances will be in the area of lightest winds. Have patchy fog
across the northwestern counties with areas of fog further south
and east.

Tomorrow, winds will begin to pick up a bit as a trough of low
pressure develops to the west and the high moves off to the east.
Even with northeast to east winds there should be some warmer
925mb temps moving in from the west as weak upper ridging
approaches. How much warming will again be very dependent on cloud
cover. Think that with better winds we should get some clearing
across the area late in the day, so kept highs near 40 north to
the mid 50s in the south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Relatively quiet period precipitation wise as region remains in the
northern stream of a general split flow pattern with main energy to
our south.  A couple of northern stream waves, one midweek, and
another towards the end of the period will bring some modest pcpn
chances to the region. Model differences on pcpn coverage for each
event justify the general low pops.  Thermal profiles fairly
consistent through the period with no big warm or cool down so
temperatures should fairly steady with highs around 50 and lows in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A mostly clear sky was over the northwest third of the area. The
rest of the area had a mostly cloudy sky with cigs above 10
thousand ft. Expect mid and high clouds to shift east overnight.
Expect MVFR/IFR conditions overnight and Mon morning as fog
develops. Fog should burn off by late Mon morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...JH



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