Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201738
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

STILL A LITTLE CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH MAY BE HOLDING
TEMPS DOWN THERE A LITTLE. HAVE HAD FULL SUN EVERYWHERE ELSE WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW
MORE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN A LITTLE
GUSTIER IN THIS SAME AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE SHORT TERM IS A QUIET PERIOD WEATHER-WISE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. ALL THE FGF CWA WILL GET OUT OF IT IS SOME CIRRUS IN
THE SOUTH. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGE OVER ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. FREEZE/FROST IS LOOKING ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH SOME
AREAS OF THE WEST MAY NOT DIP AS LOW AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. TEMPS
REBOUND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE COOLEST
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN...WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE A SMIDGE COOLER ON THURSDAY. STILL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE QUIET AS WELL. WILL SEE TEMPS
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH AND ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN RIDGE SLIDE EAST
A LITTLE. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY...AND IT
WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
NORTH INITIALLY WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES SAT AND SUN...THEN DRIES
THINGS OUT FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THIS WEEKEND...BUT LINGERS AN UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED. PWATS WILL RISE OVER 1 INCH THOUGH...ALONG WITH SOME
INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
WINDS AS CIGS AND VIS REMAIN VFR. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND OUR LIGHT WEST TO SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 12 KTS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AROUND
KDVL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL FOR
THE MOST PART. THE ONLY POINT IN FLOOD CURRENTLY IS HALLOCK ON THE
TOW RIVERS RIVER...AND IT HAS CRESTED AND SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY LATE THIS WEEK. NO MAJOR/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...DK


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