Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

No changes for the late evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Potent upper low creating severe weather across the central plains
will continue to lift to the northeast across Iowa and into
Wisconsin. Its northern edge of rain will continue to skirt the
southeastern portions of the forecast area. CAM guidance limits
the precip south of a Lisbon to Detroit Lakes to Bemidji line
this evening and then slides to the southeast overnight.

Another challenge for tonight and into tomorrow will be clearing
skies and frost potential across the Devils Lake basin. Colder and
drier airmass from Canadian high pressure continues work into the
northern plains. North to northeast winds with gusts to around
30kts drying out the SFC layer with upper 30s dewpoints along the
Canada/US border. This drier air along with decreasing winds and
eventually clearing skies will allow temps to fall into the mid
30s across the Devils Lake basin thus the frost advisory through
9am tomorrow. The rest of the forecast area will see more clouds
and stronger winds overnight keeping temps around 40. Daytime
temps rebound with solar to near 60F with winds much less than
today in the 10 to 15kts range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thursday night through Friday...High pressure and upper level
ridging move along the International border, bringing in dry air
aloft and continued cool weather. Frost will be a concern Thursday
night into early Friday with light winds, mostly clear skies, and
dry air present, along with lows near or just a few degrees above
the freezing mark. Highs Friday will be in the upper 50s to 60s with
cloud cover increasing during the day in the southern zones.

Friday night through Sunday...As a low pressure system moves from
eastern Kansas into southern Minnesota/Wisconsin, cloud cover,
winds, and rain chances will increase for the weekend, especially
the southern and eastern zones, due to wraparound precipitation on
the northwest side of the system. Model confidence is improving
regarding precipitation chances across the Red River valley Saturday
with better agreement from the Euro/GFS solutions. Model confidence
is much lower Saturday night and Sunday, but at this time
precipitation chances are expected in northwest and west central
Minnesota, lagging behind the low as it moves slowly toward the
Great Lakes.

For early next week, model confidence is quite low but a general
consensus indicates that the previously mentioned system will stall
out over the Great Lakes. As a series of upper disturbances swing
through the Northern and Central Plains, the weather pattern looks
to be more active, and northerly flow aloft will bring cooler
temperatures, starting off the week slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Some MVFR ceilings hanging on around KBJI, and slightly higher
stratus deck of 4000 ft at KFAR. Those lower clouds will
eventually slide southeastward by morning. Cirrus clouds further
north, and those TAF sites should remain VFR throughout the
period. Winds will continue to be breezy overnight with 15 to 20
kt north winds and higher gusts. Some slight reduction tomorrow,
but winds will not drop below 12 kts until tomorrow evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR



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