Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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980
FXUS63 KFGF 221815 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
115 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Scattered showers that have developed in Manitoba along a surface
boundary will begin moving in along the international border early
this evening. Adjusted cloud cover to reflect this and expect to
see some diurnally driven cumulus fields this afternoon. Also
adjusted high temperatures a bit as temperatures today are quite
dependent on the extent/duration of morning cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A couple areas of showers across the region this morning both
associated with active upper jet axis over ND. The most organized
area over SD associated with exit region of jet maxima and should
continue to propagate eastward possibly clipping the far southern
FA along the ND/SD/MN border region. Another weaker area over
nw-n central ND on nose of secondary jet maxima. This feature may
bring some light showers across the far north although high
resolution model guidance weakens this area. Will maintain some
low end pops with each feature although most areas should remain
dry today. Will see breezy to windy conditions with strongest
winds over the nw FA. At this point winds look to be just blo
advisory criteria but worth monitoring. Patchy clouds will likely
hold temperatures in the 70s.

Tonight a mid level shear axis and associated cold front drops
through the fa. Most guidance indicating some post frontal shower
potential, mainly across the north. Respectable cold advection
however with clouds temperatures shouldn`t drop off too far.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Region goes back into nw flow aloft with some degree of shortwave
dropping through the fa about every 24 hours or so. With these
features will see periodical rain chances Friday and Saturday
along with temperatures that will run 10 to 15 degrees below
average.

he extended period begins with an upper trof over Lake Superior.
Cyclonic flow aloft will result in some scattered showers,
particularly in the eastern zones. As the upper trof departs on
Monday, the upper ridge begins rebounding over the forecast area
bringing warmer temperatures and quieter weather through
Wednesday.

By Wednesday night, a frontal system is expected to cross the area
bringing chances for more showers or storms. As the front passes
early Thursday, expect some slight cooling and breezy conditions to
end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this evening, but ceilings are
expected to lower to MVFR late tonight, especially in northwest
Minnesota. Windy west-northwest conditions this afternoon and
evening, especially in central North Dakota and near DVL where
peak gusts will reach 30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Voelker
AVIATION...BP



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