Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS






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