Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
941 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 941 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Adjusted sky cover a bit for cirrus clouds moving into our
northern counties, but no other changes. Still think we should get
up into the 70s this afternoon across our west with southerly
winds and warm air advection, even with more muted sunshine thanks
to the cirrus.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds turn southerly today at 10-20kts. Some high clouds present
today, but another warm one as 850 mb temps climb back to the +16
to +18C range. This good for upper 60s to upper 70s across the
area. Some high clouds tonight with a south wind keeping temps

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A building upper level ridge moves to the east of the area Friday
with a deepening upper trough moving into the Pacific
Northwest/Great Basin region. In response, a developing surface low
in the western Canadian Prairies will draw up moisture from the south
as well as create strong warm air advection over the Northern
Plains. This will lead to well above average temperatures for the
area with highs in the mid to upper 70s common on Friday. Gusty
southerly winds will also be noted Friday during the day, especially
in the Red River Valley, with gusts into the 25-35 mph range. The
upper trough moves eastward along with the deepening surface low
into central Manitoba. A trailing cold front will sweep through the
area Saturday utilizing the fresh moisture that has moved into over
the area bringing precipitation chances. There still remains some
disagreement on the timing of this cold front as well as the amount
of moisture that moves into the area causing some discrepancy in
location/amount of rainfall, however guidance suggests locations
within Minnesota have better chances of seeing rainfall late

The cold front quickly moves through the area with cooler
temperatures expected Sunday, albeit still above normal. On Monday,
an amplifying trough over the central United States will provide
additional precipitation chances Monday, possibly into Tuesday.
Guidance starts to differ greatly with the development of this
pattern, with the ECMWF solution developing a deep low over the
western Great Lakes and GFS/CMC keeping more of an elongated surface
low and upper trough over the Ohio Valley into southern Ontario. All
solutions suggest another vigorous short wave approaching moving out
of central Canada into the Upper Midwest, although confidence of
precipitation development with this system is quite low.

With the switch to more of a northwesterly flow aloft and the
passage of multiple systems Monday forward, closer to seasonal
temperatures are expected, i.e. highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR thru the pd. Gusty southerly winds developing this afternoon
gusting at times 20-25 kts in the RRV. Diminishing some after dark
tonight. Scattered cirrus.


Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions today. Less wind than
Wednesday but still enough of a southerly wind and dry fuels to
cause some concern. Dew point temperatures not quite as low as
mixing with the south winds today in the warm advection not as
deep as yesterday and less prone to bring down the very dry air.




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