Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

850 mb temps warming considerably this morning with higher
elevations on the western Red River valley edge seeing 850 mb
temps push 10C and thus seeing sfc temps rise into the upper 30s
to low 40s in a small area from Morden Manitoba to just west of
Grand Forks. 850 mb temps lower a tad during the day...but the
south winds in the Red River valley do switch the west today as
well so net result will be an even out of the temperatures with
highs today in the upper 30s to low 40s area wide.

Considerable high clouds today in advance of a weak short wave
moving just north of the intl border. This weak wave causing some
light precip in NE MT but it is drying out into NW ND. A few short
range models do spit out some very light QPF during the course of
the mid to late morning/early aftn into eastern nd/nw mn but sub
700 mb layer is very dry with rh values below 20 pct. If anything
would reach the ground sprinkles at best. Road temps are expected
to warm a bit today to above freezing from the road temp
forecasts, and with any precip very light dont forsee any issues.

Dry tonight with likely high level cloudiness to continue.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Latest trends in guidance are pulling the snow shield southward
associated with the developing winter storm Sunday night into
Monday. CIPS analogs based on the 00Z GFS have greatly backed off
snow potential for our region, probably related to the southern
shift in the low`s track within the operational GFS. Still this is
a new trend and the sharp gradient in snow lingering just to the
southeast of the CWA keeps the chance of snow in the forecast.
Southern areas within the CWA should still monitor the forecast in
relation to potential accumulating snow and gusty winds.
Regardless, cooler air will be pulled into the region with the low
passing to our southeast. This should bring temperatures closer
to season norms, ie lows in the single digits and highs in the
teens, which look to last through the forecast period.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a small clipper system looks to move
southeast out of southern Manitoba close to the region possibly
dropping a quick shot of snow. The focus then turns to a potentially
unsettled weather pattern late next week with energy ejecting out of
the Pacific into the western and central US. Though guidance is
having a difficult time with the interaction of several features
during this time period so will opt out of mentioning specifics.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions continue with cirrus clouds moving across the area.
This trend will continue with some more mid level clouds moving
in later in the period. Winds will shift from the south to
southwest to west at around 10 kts.




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