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000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST
OF THE FA...AND HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OR DECREASING IN AREA AS
THEY BUMP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG