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000
FXUS63 KFGF 111746
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY TOPPED OFF ACROSS THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION GETTING READY TO CROSS THE BORDER. FARTHER
SOUTH ONLY ANOTHER A DEGREE OR TWO EXPECTED AS CLOUDS AND COLD
ADVECTION SPREADING SOUTH. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. TRIMMED
BACK ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS KEEPING ANY POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE UPDATE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON SNOW CHANCES. FAIRLY STEADY COLD ADVECTION PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE FA TODAY AND QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY
WE GET. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WILL SEE SOME PATCHY SOLAR
FOR A WHILE HOWEVER OVERALL RECOVERY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. AT
THIS POINT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES AS IS BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS.

CANADIAN RADARS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURNS WITH -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. VSBY FROM METARS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARILY P6SM SO WILL ALSO MONITOR BAND AS IT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THINK THAT
TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT MORE THIS MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING ONLY A
FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING COMING IN FROM THE
NORTH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TEMPERATURES AND IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUT OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
DECENT CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVE DOWN OUT OF CANADA. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
30S WILL SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH ONLY A LITTLE
BIT OF RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DECENT PRECIP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS THIS SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW SOME
GOOD LIFT AND HIGH RH IN THE -15 C AREA NEEDED FOR GOOD DENDRITIC
GROWTH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TRACK...SO
WILL KEEP JUST A 30-40 MENTION FOR NOW AND NOT GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT. BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES DOWN.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER INTO MN/WI LATER TONIGHT AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WE
SHOULD RADIATE OUT BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL BE STICKING
AROUND AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALTHOUGH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE US APPROACHING THE NEGATIVE VALUES AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES DOWN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS GOES HOG WILD WITH THE SYSTEM AND
BREAKS OUT QUITE A BIT OF QPF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT LESS AND MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...BUT WITH THE GFS BEING AN OUTLIER
WILL JUST KEEP SOME SMALL POPS OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST AND BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY
WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM UP AS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO COME BACK INTO
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE INT
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WARM HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURSDAY
AND WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING A TRANSITION TO AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE
OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM WEAKENING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SHORTWAVE
(POSSIBLY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW) PUSHING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND. THUS...TEMPS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...AND COOLING BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...CHILLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION.
MODELS DO BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS. HOWEVER...PHASE DIFFERENCES
INCREASE A LOT BY MONDAY...WITH THE GFS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

BAND OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MVFR
CEILINGS AT KDVL...BUT LOWER CLOUD DECKS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VALLEY
AIRFIELDS AFTER 00 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KTVF AND KBJI. NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...ROGERS