Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
105 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 104 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

No additional changes needed as temps are behaving close to the
fcst. High clouds have increased over the area with mostly cloudy
conditions NW half.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Upper level trough from MAN/Ontario border to northern MN will
continue to move east. Upper level trough over the BC coast
will move across southern MAN Fri night. Models seeing two short
waves one will move across the southern MN and the other across
southwest ND by late Fri night. Precip will mainly occur over
southern Canada with short wave. Cold front will move in Fri
night. With the cold front, will have low pops over parts of
the MN side for Fri night.

Satellite indicated some cirrus clouds spilling into southern
SASK. Should have increasing clouds from the northwest this afternoon.
Wind chills running from 20 to 30 below zero on the northern zones
but yet outside of the Red River Valley proper. Will keep wind
chill advisory going for the northern valley through 9 AM CST.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A cold front will be pushing through the area on Saturday...along
with an upper trough. The GFS is the bit of an outlier with this
system and is the only model with appreciable precipitation with the
front...and it`s only a dusting of snow or so in the central and
south. Will continue with only a slight chance in the far south for

The better chance for snow will come on Saturday night and Sunday as
an upper wave moves west to east across the area. There appears to
be strong frontogenesis with this wave as well as favorable Q-vector
convergence aloft favoring a banded snow scenario. Instability in
the lower layers isn`t quite as favorable, however. How tight this
band is and the overall magnitude are still in is the
track. The envelope of solutions regarding the track of this east-
west band appears to range from as far south as the SD border to as
far north as Grand Forks. The 00Z NAM had the band from Devils Lake
through Grand Forks to Bemidji but the 06Z has shifted it south a
bit...closer to Hillsboro/Lake George. The ECMWF favors a more
northern solution as well...while the GFS has the peak of the band
much further south over the ND/SD/MN triple point. Right now a lot
of the models have a broad area of precip are encompassing much of
eastern ND and NW MN. But believe the reality will be a tighter band
as this materializes as frontogenesis bands often do. A band of 3-6"
is likely...with over 6" possible in the heaviest part of the
band. The northern track solutions also favor a period of freezing
drizzle in the south. Have included this in the latest update.
The winds pick up toward the end of the event as winds turn from
the east to the north...likely causing some blowing snow in areas.

The frontal boundary associated with the previous system doesn`t
make it too far southeast of the area on Sunday. The models turn the
upper flow from the southwest as a western trough deepens. The Upper
Midwest will have good warm air advection aloft over this cold air
mass and will likely see some snow late Sunday night into Monday
across part of the region. The best chance looks to be from Gwinner
to Fergus Falls and Park Rapids and south. Some accumulations will
be possible late Sunday night and early Monday in this area and
further to the southeast.

The cold air then settles into the area for Monday and Tuesday
before warming to near normal for the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR expected thru 18z Saturday with a mix of high and mid clouds.
Southwest wind 10 to 20kts with gusts to 25 kts in parts of the
RRV/E ND turning west-northwest later tonight/Saturday.




LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.