502
FXUS63 KFGF 280445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through
  the overnight for eastern North Dakota into west-central
  Minnesota.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
  afternoon in west-central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

It would appear that we are transitioning from discrete to
linear mode, but until that happens all modes of severe
(tornado, hail, wind) will have potential for the area of the
tornado watch. Most likely scenario will be a transition to
linear mode by 1am with severe wind becoming the main threat.
Confidence is much lower for areas to the east of the current
tornado watch considering the convection should outrun the low
level jet.


UPDATE
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

In collaboration with SPC we extended the tornado watch a row of
counties to the east, now including Griggs, Barnes, Ransom, and
Sargent counties. With discrete tornadic supercells approaching
from the west, and looking at mesoanalysis indicating that the
instability axis as shifted slightly to the west, low level jet
increasing and thus effective SRH increasing into this area, the
tornado threat will continue until either storms interact and
become linear or storms become more elevated, which likely will
happen at some point after midnight or 1am, when the tornado
watch expires. It does appear more likely severe threat will
continue after 1am and SPC will be evaluating need for
an additional watch after 1am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals shortwave trough in
eastern MT working its way east-northeast into SK/MB. This will
provide mid/upper forcing and sufficient shear over an area of
increasing instability and low level moisture over central and
western ND. This will set the stage for very likely robust
thunderstorm development within central ND, of which will likely
be supercells. This activity will work its way eastward mid to
late afternoon before merging into a strong to severe linear
complex of storms tonight deeper into portions of
eastern/southeastern North Dakota into west-central MN by
morning.

As overnight/early morning thunderstorms exit the area to the
southeast, a lull in activity is expected before additional
thunderstorms become possible, favored to be closer to central
MN. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe as well
in the late afternoon hours.

Cold front moves through the area late Saturday into early
Sunday. Behind this front, upper pattern turns more
northwesterly aloft favoring drier, less unstable air mass into
the region. This would favor near average temperatures, less
chance for organized severe weather, as well as near average
precipitation.


...Severe Potential This Afternoon into Tonight...

Supercells are likely to form in central ND this afternoon. As
these supercells move generally east, they could eek into
portions of Devils Lake basin, such as Benson County. Should
this occur, very large hail greater than 2 inches may occur.

Vast majority of guidance still favors upscale growth as it
enters deeper into Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne River Valley
after 7 PM. This would favor main threat for severe hazards to
be gusty winds up to 70 mph. Following the instability gradient,
linear complex is expected to move southeast or east tonight as
it moves through southeast ND into west-central MN by early
morning Saturday.

...Severe Potential Saturday...

General expectation is morning thunderstorms will shunt at least
a portion of the most unstable air mass into central MN. This
would favor corridor of most likely severe potential to be
within central MN. However, if most unstable air mass works its
way either back northward or morning thunderstorms doesn`t quite
shunt instability too deep into central MN, then west-central
MN would hold the greatest potential, at least initially. Should
the latter scenario occur, all hazards including large hail,
gusty wind, and tornadoes would be possible at least for a
relatively brief window between the 5-8 PM timeframe.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop elsewhere in the
afternoon, which would hold potential for hail up to the size
of ping pong balls.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Thunderstorms will be the main concern through this period,
especially overnight. KFAR has the highest probability for TSRA,
along with gusty winds.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TG