Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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736
FXUS63 KFGF 172310
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
610 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

WILL NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN FOR THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED 40 MPH...AND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
A REPORT OF DOWNED TREES IN BOTTINEAU...AND LARGER TREE BRANCHES
DOWN IN DEVILS LAKE. THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH 03Z...WITH 925MB AND 850MB
WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY INCREASING. THUS...STRONG WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN EFFECT WITH REPORTS THAT THE
PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW...AND ANTICIPATE
WINTRY WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OF COURSE...IF THE
PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW THEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT LIKELY FOR LESS THAN 3 HOURS. WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NW MN APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED AS THE WARM SECTOR IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

FIRST OFF...SFC LOW NEAR SISSETON/WAHPETON AREA AT MID AFTN AND
SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOT CENTERED NEAR FOSSTON MN. SO SFC LOW
WILL TACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THAT AREA THIS EVENING. EAST OF SFC LOW
AREA IN DRY SLOT WHERE HEATING OCCURRED FAVORABLE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM TO FORM. FOCUS IS FROM ALEXANDRIA NORTH TO EAST OF
FERGUS FALLS....TO BEMIDJI...PARK RAPIDS AND WADENA. SFC AND UPPER
AIR LOW PLACEMENT FAVORS LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE
FUNNEL FORMATION. PER SPC NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS
STRONG....BUT COULD BE THRU 00Z. ANOTHER QUESTION IS NW EDGE OF
DEF ZONE PRECIP. RAIN FALLING PER PUBLIC LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE AREA
STILL. MODELS TAKE DRIER AIR WEST AND WANT TO SHUT OFF DEF ZONE
HEAVY PRECIP THIS EVENIGN LEAVING LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING IN THE COLD AIR WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. SO JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS QUESTIONABLE. WILL LEAVE
WSW OUT FOR 1-3 INCHES IN DVL BASIN-LANGDON AREAS OVERNIGHT AS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TINKER WITH IT.

WINDS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AND CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 40-55 MPH
RANGE IN DVL BASIN AND SPREAD INTO THE RRV THIS EVE. STRONG WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO HAVE WIND ADVISORIES OUT.

MOVED PRECIP OUT A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FCSTS MONDAY. OTHERWISE
COLD AND WINDY. CLEARING OVERSPREADS AREA MON NIGHT AND LIKELY
FREEZE CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM  CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

WELCOME DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN AND TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL DISCUSSION TODAY DUE TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. BASICALLY KEPT THE THU/FRI PERIOD DRY AND LEFT
PCPN CHANCES AS THEY WERE FOR SAT/SUN. TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LOT OF ELEMENTS TO COVER IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST OF
ALL TSTM CHANCES. HAVE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO SOME THUNDER YET AT KBJI.
OTHERWISE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR WEST. MAIN AREA OF
PCPN APPEARS TO BE PINWHEELING BACK TO THE NW AND MAY GIVE ALL TAF
SITES BUT KDVL A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE STEADY PCPN. EVEN IF IT DOES
GIVE A BREAK IT SHOULD SLIDE BACK TO THE EAST LATER...BUT MAYBE WITH
NOT QUITE SO HEAVY OF PCPN. WINDS WILL REALLY HOWL AT KDVL/KGFK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO KFAR/KTVF AND
FINALLY KBJI LATER. TEMPS PLUNGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE
A SWITCH TO RAIN/SNOW THEN ALL SNOW TONIGHT. QUESTION IS STILL HOW
MUCH THE VSBY WILL BE RESTRICTED BY ANY SNOW...AND DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD IDEA AT THE MOMENT. TAFS WILL HAVE TO BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY I
AM SURE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     049-052-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



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