033
FXUS63 KAPX 261729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Huron Beach hazards, locally heavy rain, and
thunderstorms...oh my!

- Additional rainfall/storm chances, esp late weekend into early
next week...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Southwesterly flow persists from the Desert SW through the Upper
Midwest into Ontario; 140+kt upper jet across Ontario/Quebec to our
northeast in confluence zone between northern stream troughing...and
ridge axis still trying to hold on over the OH Valley. Upper flow is
rather easterly over the SE US with a broad upper low swirling into
FL...though high pressure remains intact at the surface over much of
the OH Valley/SE US...with return flow starting to pick up again
through eastern TX. Anomalous pwats stretch from the southern Plains
to the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes region. Weak surface boundary
still holding on across southern WI toward the southern MI state
line; LL easterly flow persists attm...but not enough to preclude
rainfall across the CWA...as lingering stratiform rain from earlier
upstream convection makes its way eastward across the Lake, largely
along and north of a theta-e gradient stretching through central
MI...and in the vicinity of a deformation axis across the Yoop where
the LLJ turns easterly.

Boundary will remain stretched across the area today, though some
uncertainty in how far north it gets (could get as far north as M-
55/M-72?). Will expect some rainfall along/north of the boundary,
with a better shot at surface-based convection across
southern/central MI in the warm sector (this is where the boundary
placement is important). In the meantime...breezy easterly flow
across the northern half of northern Lower in particular will lead
to hazardous beach conditions today with waves 4-6 feet for most of
the Lake Huron beaches.

Tonight...PV max moving into the Upper Midwest will enhance synoptic
forcing again...bringing another shot at heavy rain and storms to
the area...as surface low pressure crosses the area...with cooler
weather swinging in on the backside of this for Friday night. Things
should warm back up again Saturday as return flow takes aim again at
the Upper Midwest...bringing a chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms to the region later Saturday into Saturday
night...though unclear attm if this will reach us. Better chance of
showers and thunderstorms for us will be later Sunday into Monday as
a stronger shortwave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, leaning a
somewhat nebulous SW-NE oriented boundary into the region going into
Monday...supporting a continued threat for showers and storms into
Monday. Troughing then looks to settle into the region...suggesting
potential for a notable cooldown from Sunday (if convective debris
does not keep us cooler Sunday), with signals for cooler weather to
linger into at least the first few days of July.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Heavy rainfall through tonight...Think the best chance for rain
today will remain across the Tip of the Mitt/EUP, perhaps into the M-
32 corridor, where there should be better fgen forcing to work
with...though do have some concerns the break in deeper moisture and
better forcing could limit the amount of rainfall we end up with
today...if not shut things down almost entirely....though think
drizzle is still a possibility. There are some better signals for
low-level convergence across NW Lower into central Lower (either the
boundary itself or some kind of leftover mesoscale boundary), which
could lead to a rainfall maximum there...where there is a better
shot a rainfall taking on a more convective look. Tonight...better
synoptic forcing looks to shift northward, which should result in
the rainfall swath shifting northward as well...putting the threat
more on the UP again as deeper moisture creeps back northeastward.

Storm potential through tonight...Think the storm threat for today
will depend on how much clearing we get today. Areas that remain
socked under the clouds should not move much at all...(perhaps
struggling into the 60s for some?)...but if some part of the CWA
(most likely NW Lower across to the Saginaw Bay region) breaks into
some clearing, temperatures will be much warmer (upper 70s to lower
80s possible)...which could lead to a better shot at
destabilization. On the flipside, though...this could also lead to
mixing down of drier air aloft...so a bit of a catch-22...but could
lead to some gusty winds, perhaps. Appears flow should end up benign
for a bit across part of central Lower beneath the general area of
lower pressure this afternoon, which could leave us open to any
development occurring along lingering mesoscale boundaries. Expect
the better shot at thunder will be overnight as better forcing moves
back in again...

A lot of questions surrounding the forecast for tonight as well,
though...depending on how strong and where the surface response to
the incoming PV max is. Think there will be some northward motion of
warm/unstable air overnight...though strength of this is in
question. A more aggressive solution would lead to a rather
significant increase in instability/convective instability for NW
Lower in particular during the overnight hours. Combined with
potential for a little better shear in this scenario...do have some
concerns we could be looking at some stronger storms tonight into
Friday morning until the surface low exits stage right.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Lingering storms Friday... As mentioned above...think there will be
lingering storms Friday morning, perhaps into mid-day/afternoon,
pending how quickly the system moves on its way and moisture gets
swept out. If more aggressive solution mentioned above pans
out...could be looking for some stronger storms across the eastern
half of the area for at least the first part of the day...but think
we will need to see how today pans out before running too far ahead
with this.

Additional storm chances through the weekend...Best chance for
showers/storms will be later Sunday into Monday as the next, more
noteworthy perturbation moves in...with potential for a warmup
Sunday as southwesterly flow strengthens again. Still have concerns
for upstream activity to ride thickness gradient toward Michigan
Saturday night into early Sunday...but not impossible that the
activity may end up remaining to our west...will have to see. If it
does come to fruition, it could end up cooler than the current
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Showers have largely diminished across the Northwoods with
cloudy skies expected to persist through the rest of today with
a continued mix of VFR to IFR conditions. Clouds will generally
increase again late tonight ahead of a developing area of
showers/ storms expected ~04Z through early Friday. Ceilings and
visibility look to lower to MVFR to IFR in heavier showers/
storms during that time. East winds will decrease through the
night and shift southwest Friday morning with occasional gusts
10-15 kts-- with the exception of areas near the tip of the Mitt
and north where occasional gusts 20-25 knots are possible
through tonight (PLN and CIU). Some low-level wind shear may
develop overnight into early Friday as stronger winds aloft move
into the region.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ017-
     018-024-030-036.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...NSC