Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW...
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AND LOW
CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BS






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