Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 200723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL





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