Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 160807
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION FREE AND COOL CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...MORE SUN AND A BIT WARMER TODAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

THINGS ARE QUIET OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE WELL EAST OF HERE AND UPPER TROUGHING SETTLED IN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WAS SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED SFC BASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN CWA...MAINLY WHERE RAINS FELL YESTERDAY AND
DUE TO MINIMAL BL MIXING...THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG. THIS AIDED BY CLEARING SKIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT
WITH INVADING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. ALSO...LAKE ASSISTED CLOUDS ACROSS
NW LOWER WERE FADING WITH TIME...DUE IN PART TO WEAKENING WIND
FIELDS AND LESS MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES. UPSTREAM IN CANADA
RESIDES THE MAIN CHANNEL OF MID LEVEL JET ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVES. CO-LOCATED HERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTH WITH TIME.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

KIND OF IN NO MAN`S LAND TODAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO ROLL ON THROUGH. THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
NORTH...BUT CONTINUES TO SINK TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN. RATHER...WE WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
THAT WILL BE CROSSING ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD
POOL SCRAPING BY TODAY WILL PROVIDE SOME BETTER CUMULUS COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE EVEN PORTIONS OF FAR NRN LOWER...BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE DAY. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO
THE NRN CWA LATE TODAY AND MAINLY TONIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING A SWATH
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME LATE NIGHT WEAK DEEP LAYER DIVQ ACTING
ON THE FRONT THAT SETTLES INTO EASTERN UPPER...MAYBE BE ABLE TO
BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. BEST CHANCES (ALBEIT LOW CHANCES) TO BE
ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

PRETTY QUIET OVERALL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S...WITH SOME OF THE COLDER LOW
LYING AREAS SNEAKING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THE COLDEST TEMPS CLOSER
TO THE SFC HIGH SOUTH OF M-32.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...A BIT COOL THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TURNING WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FROST POSSIBLE WED AND THU NIGHTS.

MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RIDGING OUT WEST CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRANSITORY SHOT OF COOL AIR IS THEN LIKELY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT ANOTHER
WARMUP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (YAHOO!). THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS WEDNESDAY...FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS THEN POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SAG INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HOLDS STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR FROST. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A
WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW (THOUGH TIMING
APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED). THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH THEN DROPS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING
A FEW SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER WARMUP
TABBED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY THEN FINALLY REBOUNDING TO MORE
TYPICAL LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY. WARMER SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...FOLLOWED BY THE LOWER
60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY THEN FALLING BACK IN THE COOLER MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE
40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS THEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS BEFORE SETTLING BACK INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE WARMER LAKES WAS RESULTING IN SOME
BKN VFR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER. FLOW IS RATHER WEAK OUT
A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND CLOUDS WILL HANG CLOSER TO THE SHORE
WITH TIME. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR DOES CONTINUE TO SLIDE
INTO MAINLY THE MBL AREA...AND JUST SOME FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF BKN VFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR APN. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK FROM CANADA...AND TRY AND
DIP INTO EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT. AFTER A FAIRLY CLEAR START TO THE
EVENING...SCATTERED MID/BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PUNCHING
INTO PLN/APN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAYBE SOME WEST GUSTS TO 15-16 KTS AT APN THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE GENERAL LIGHT WINDS BACKING MORE SW TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL FALL INTO EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT AND
ACROSS NRN LOWER WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BEFORE
SWITCHING OUT OF THE N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SOME ISOLATED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES
IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





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