Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCH CLOSER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
DOWN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT INTO MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CIRRUS EXPANDING/THICKENING TO OUR WEST...WHERE RETURN FLOW IS
STRONGER BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR HEADS AND LOW PRESSURE IN
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL EXPAND INTO NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY LATE. HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THAT PROCESS COMPARED TO
THE EARLIER FORECAST.

THE SLOWER CLOUD COVER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH MANY PLACES ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 30S. THE ST
MARYS VALLEY IS THE ONE RELATIVE WARM SPOT IN THE LOWER
40S...THANKS TO LINGERING STRATOCU UP THAT ONE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME VERY LATE TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOP. BUT UNTIL THEN...HAVE HAD TO SHARPLY REDUCE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...THICKENING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BY MONDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A DECENT LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON...ALBEIT BREEZY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN OVER ERN UPPER...WHERE COLD NW BREEZES /H8 TEMPS
NEAR +1C/ HAVE CONTINUED TO PROMOTE LAKE CLOUDS FROM WHITEFISH BAY
TO THE SAULT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR HERE TOO THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES MOVES OVERHEAD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE...DECREASING WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND MOISTURE QUICKLY SPREADS BACK NWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAA EXPANDS
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
ABRUPT H8 MOISTURE RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF LLJ...SUGGESTS A
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER NW LOWER /W OF I-75 CORRIDOR/.
THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY IN FORECAST...CAN/T RULE OUT THUNDER TOWARD
DAYBREAK OVER NW LOWER /PER SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK/ GIVEN H8 DEW
POINTS SURGING TOWARD +12C...RRQ FORCING FROM DEPARTING H2 JET
STREAK...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...MAYBE SOME SNOW AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: THUNDERSTORMS WITH SFC LOW, AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS MOVING INTO THE
CONUS WHICH IS FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AND PUSHING THE 500 MB LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF 500 MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CONTINENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MIDST
OF ALL OF THIS, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE JET STREAM OVER THE CONUS AND DIG THE TROUGH
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO MOVE THINGS ALONG SO THAT THE WEATHER DRIES
OUT BY SATURDAY.

(10/27) MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE THUNDER AND
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES INTO S WISCONSIN BY 18Z. THERE IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
THE HIGHER RH 850 MB AIR WITH THE ECMWF HAVING DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IS REFLECTED IN
THE QPF FIELDS WITH THE GFS HAVING THE RAIN FALLING A LITTLE MORE
NORTH THAN ECMWF. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES
TODAY. SO WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS IDEA AND MATCH UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES BETTER. AROUND 00Z A MID LEVEL DRY BUBBLE
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
AS THE SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
THERE IS SOME PRETTY DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE SHOWALTER
INDEX SHOWS UP BETWEEN 0C AND -2C ACROSS MOST OF N LOWER THROUGH
THE REST OF NIGHT.

(10/28) TUESDAY...THE 3 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC
LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO THE STRAITS BY 12Z, SO THAT THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH N LOWER IN THE MORNING, AND IT
SEEMS LIKE THE FRONT RIPS THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE 10C 850
MB ISO THERM AND THE SFC TROUGH GO FROM W LOWER TO INTO ONTARIO BY
18Z. SO WILL GO WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE LOWER THROUGH 15Z,
AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS POST FRONTAL THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE 500 MB LOW PUSHES TO SOMEWHERE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR,
AND PUSHES THE 700-500 MB WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO NW LOWER AND E
UPPER, AND BEGIN TO SPREAD THE RAIN EAST BY 00Z. CONTINUING INTO
THE NIGHT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -4C IN E UPPER
AND -3C IN N LOWER. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, AND THE LAKE INSTABILITY
HELPS TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. SFC TEMPERATURES DON`T LOOK
COLD ENOUGH AT THIS POINT (UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S) TO MIX SNOW
YET. BUT THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE IF IT GETS COLDER THAN THE CURRENT
PROGS.

(10/29) WEDNESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE DAY TO AROUND -6C IN E UPPER. THE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE DAY. SO DON`T THINK
THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW FLAKES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT,
WINDS BECOME WNW IN E UPPER AND WSW IN N LOWER. TEMPERATURES IN E
UPPER REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A MIX OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...(10/30) THURSDAY...THE NEXT
SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA GETS A GOOD PUSH WITH A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THE WIND
PATTERNS FOR LAKE EFFECT LOOK A BIT LIGHT SO IT LOOKS LIKE A DAY
WHERE THERE ARE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER AT
NIGHT, THE TEMPERATURES COOL AT 850 MB THE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE NNW AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL
HAVE A MIX IN E UPPER AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF N LOWER.
(10/31)FRIDAY...THIS NNW TO N FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WHAT LOOKS LIKE DECENT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DON`T THINK THAT THEY WILL BE
HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.
(11/1) SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SFC RIDGE THROUGH THE
REGION AND REALLY DRY OUT THE 850 MB MOISTURE SO DRY FOR THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT. (11/2) SUNDAY...THE DAY REMAINS DRY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST AND THE RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING. THE GFS
LOOKS TO BRING THE WARM FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THINK THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE
GFS HAS BEEN TENDING TO DO THINGS LIKE THIS, THIS YEAR. WILL SIDE
WITH THE DRY ECMWF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH SOME RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS MONDAY IN
-SHRA. LLWS MONDAY MBL/TVC.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST...ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN INCOMING CIRRUS DECK WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN...AND -SHRA WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO STAY VFR FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TIME IN THE DAY MBL/TVC...AND IN THE
AFTERNOON PLN/APN.

LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TONIGHT...SE WIN DEVELOPING LATE AND
INCREASING MONDAY. LLWS AT MBL/TVC MONDAY...WITH STRONG S WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MARINERS WILL FIND NW BREEZES REMAINING GUSTY WITHIN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NRN LAKE HURON...AND FAR NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN THESE AREAS UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND CAUSE WINDS/WAVES TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE. WINDS
BECOME SE ON MONDAY AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMITH






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