Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 241402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD






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