Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 020213
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WE DIDN/T MIX OUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
VERY EFFECTIVELY TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THINK PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY. VERY CHILLY EARLY JULY LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S AND SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS LIKELY INTO THE
30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLEARING TREND CONTINUES FROM NW-SE EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY COOL EARLY JULY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
40S...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 30S. GIVEN
COOLING TEMPS WITH A STILL RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AND WILL ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS....PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A THICK COVER OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER IS MAKING SOME PROGRESS TOWARD CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WITH THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS LEFT IN THIS AREA
RESTRICTED TO FAR ERN UPR MICHIGAN. LATEST VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES
COMBINED WITH REGIONAL SURFACE OBS SHOW THE CLEARING LINE CURRENT
STRETCHES FROM NEAR ANJ TO SJX TO THE SRN TIP OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO WARM TODAY THANKS TO THIS THICK CLOUD
COVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 50S.

STILL EXPECT THIS CLEARING LINE WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY SE
PROGRESS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WINDS. LOW LEVEL DRYING SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. EXPECT A RATHER COOL JULY 1ST
NIGHT...AS LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH FRIDAY`S WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

(7/2)THURSDAY...SOME DRY AIR (850 MB RH AROUND 50%) AND THE SFC HIGH
OVER THE STATE WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING, AND THE 700-500 MB
LAYER RH<20% WILL EXPECT RATHER QUIET WEATHER TO START OFF WITH FOR
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, AND BEGINS TO
GET SOME RETURN FLOW, WITH A VIGOROUS 500 MB SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP/FLOPPING WITH THIS
FEATURE THE LAST DAY OR SO. YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD BETTER
PRECIPITATION, WHILE NOW THE ECMWF DOES. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY.

(7/3)FRIDAY...AS WAS STATED, THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING RAIN
SHOWERS INTO E UPPER EARLY IN THE MORNING, AND DRAGS THE RAIN EAST
AS IT CONTINUES INTO ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURES MOVES EAST, THE SFC
LOOKS LIKE IT SHARPENS UP COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, IT ALSO LOOK SOMEWHAT
MOISTURE STARVED WITH SOME AREAS ALONG IT WHERE THE 850 MB RH HAS
FALLEN TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 50%, AND THE TAIL OF THE SHORTWAVE AT
500 MB HAS 700-500 MB LAYER MOISTURE OF <40%. THIS DOESN`T BODE WELL
FOR THIS HOLDING TOGETHER AND SHOWING RAIN THROUGH N LOWER. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE BULLISH, BUT THINK THAT BASED ON THE YEAR SO FAR, WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE SPOTTY SHOWER IDEA.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS, AND DIMINISH ANY CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SFC HIGH ALSO BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITH THE
500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. SO FOR THE HOLIDAY,
IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR CELEBRATING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE REGION WILL BE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE FOR A MAJORITY OF IT. MAIN ISSUE AT THIS POINT IS THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE FORCING THE SHOWERS ARE RESULTING IN A BROAD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT ONCE THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BETTER RESOLVED THE ACTUAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS CAN BE BETTER DEFINED. IT IS STARTING TO TREND
TOWARD A LATE MONDAY ARRIVAL...CLEARING OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING IN. WILL SEE HOW MUCH RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY THIS HAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IN ANY ONE LOCATION TO ADD TO
TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MICHIGAN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR



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