Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SFC CIRCULATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE IL/IN BORDER. BROAD SCALE MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JETLET...DPVA AND
WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NE TOWARD NRN LOWER. STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
ADVECTING IN WITH THE TROUGH ALSO RESULTING IN MORE OF A SHOWERY
LOOK AT TIMES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN SWATH. PWATS WERE A
RESPECTABLE 0.50" TO 1.0" WITH THE MAIN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. 6HR RAINFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM SUGGEST ROUGHLY
0.07" TO 0.20" HAS FALLEN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TIED TO A VORT MAX
WORKING INTO SE WI. PRETTY SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING/DRY SLOT SEEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED 4-6HR BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MANISTEE 5AM-6AM
THEN LIFT NE AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
AND THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN. A COLDER AIR
MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL RESULT IN ALL SNOW (SOME MIX MAYBE
ENTERING SE SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK). THIS SNOW WILL MOVE IN 9AM TO
11AM. LOW SNOW RATIOS TO RESULT IN AROUND 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
THERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR EASTERN UPPER FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC VERY LIGHT SNOW/POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL...IS THE FREEZING
RAIN. TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO SLIGHT HIGHER THAN 0.20" IN NRN
LOWER...AND SOME OF THAT WILL FALL AS RAIN. THINKING A GENERAL 0.08"
TO 0.014" OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE WILL RISE TOO...BUT COULD LINGER
THE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT A BIT LONGER. MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. SCHOOL BUS ROUTES
WILL BE AFFECTED...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
MANISTEE... FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...HOUGHTON
LAKE...GRAYLING AND OVER TOWARD EAST TAWAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
BUT DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER
(DOWNSLOPING).

SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN LOWER AND MORE
CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
LIFTS LAYS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT AND ALSO
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S THERE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SETTLING OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED RH OVER THE NRN LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850/500MB RH PROGGED AROUND 30 PCT
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE MID LVL DRY
POCKET MOISTENS THURSDAY EVENING...A RESULT OF THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER PATTERN WILL DROP TO -12C THURSDAY WHILE FALLING TO AROUND
-18C FRIDAY. THEREFORE LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
OVER THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...AS 850MB TEMPS TO -14C.
HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
HINDERED BY SFC-850MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NW THURSDAY EVENING TO
THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 3K
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL MENTION HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO NRN MI. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BUILT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...OVERALL WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... EXCEPT SUNDAY
WHEN A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MID
LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE COLDEST AROUND -12C
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND +4C TUESDAY. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND COOL ON
SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING
CLIPPER...WITH A MAINLY DRY START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
AFTN HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL RUN THROUGH THE AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING AND LAST ABOUT 4-6 HRS...STARTING AS EARLY AS 08Z-09Z AT
MBL...AND EXIT APN LATER TODAY AROUND 17Z-18Z. THE ONSET WILL BE
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET...BEFORE WARMING SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE THE BACKSIDE OVER TO RAIN/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS 0.08-0.14"...ROUGHLY. A LIGHT AND PERIODICALLY GUSTY
SE SFC WIND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED WINDS JUST ABOVE
GROUND FOR WIND SHEAR ISSUES.

WINDS SHIFT ABRUPTLY OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...WITH SKIES GENERALLY MVFR MOSTLY CLOUDY.
APN MAY SEE LESS CLOUDS AND LIKELY CIGS WILL BE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-
     021-025>028-031>035-041-042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ016>019-022>024-029-030-036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD



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