000
FXUS63 KAPX 242303
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH ORIGINALLY PUSHED INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GENERATING PLENTY OF SUN AND NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAINLY SKC CONTINUES ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CIRRUS DRIFTING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN
ATTM. ANOTHER CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR OUR
STATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
DROPPING TO OUR CURRENT DWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVE ONCE AGAIN
AROUND LOW TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH (950 MB WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY 12Z SAT).
THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S. IN ADDITION A FEW SPOTS MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S SO
ISOLATED SPOTS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE AS WELL. WENT
WITH ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AS A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES. COULD BE A BIT OF CU INLAND...BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...VARYING LAST 7 DAYS WITH 1-2C ABOVE
NORMAL NORTHERN LOWER/1-2C BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.
SIMILAR STORY FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE...PART OF THE WESTERN END OF
AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE COOL ACROSS THE PLAINS/SOUTHEAST.  PRECIPITATION/
HYDROLOGY:  START OF A DRY SPELL TODAY AFTER A NICE CHUNK OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PRIOR 3 DAYS.  PRECIPITATION NOW NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH AT MOST LOCATIONS (150-200 PERCENT NORMAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER AND FAR SOUTHEAST CHIPPEWA COUNTY/DRUMMOND
ISLAND).  30 DAY STANDARDIZED PRECIP INDEX MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.  AREA
RIVERS STARTING TO LEVEL OFF/RECEDE FOLLOWING RECENT RAINS...RIFLE
RIVER NEAR STERLING EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER TODAY.
GREAT LAKES:  WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 3C LAKE SUPERIOR/WHITEFISH
BAY...4-5C NORTHERN LAKES HURON/MICHIGAN (6-7C FROM BEAVER ISLAND
NORTH/EAST TO THE STRAITS).

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: BIT OF A BLOCKY LOOK TO THINGS ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD...A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A NARROW RIDGE AXIS IN BETWEEN.
PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN THAN HAS BEEN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE RECENTLY.  EASTERN TROUGH WILL SPIN UP A HEALTHY STORM
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
WHILE THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS INCHES TO THE EAST BUT EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST
DURING MIDWEEK...WHICH SHOULD PUSH TROUGHING/HEIGHT FALLS OUT INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TRAPPED BETWEEN
THE NORTHEASTERN STORM AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH NOT TO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EVENTUALLY...LOW LEVEL JET/MOIST INFLOW VEERS
AROUND AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ON WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BY MEMORIAL
DAY.  WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
LAKES IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN IT ARRIVES AND WHETHER
IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE STATE OR NOT IS IN QUESTION.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND TEMPERATURES AND THREATS FOR EARLY
MORNING FROST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NARROW BUT DEEP LAYER RIDGING IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CLOUD COVER AT BAY.  CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND
A DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AROUND 30-MID 30S RANGE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF FROST.  LOTS OF SUN (AND LAKE BREEZES)
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S/AROUND 70.

NO REAL CHANGES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS FAST.
TENDENCY FOR FROST COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARMER START...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
MORE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.  MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE DRY...NAM-
WRF MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WHAT MAY BE A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VORTICITY CENTER.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ENHANCED BY
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP COMPLICATING THINGS...
THOUGH WILL NEED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION THIS FAR EAST AND DON`T EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR UNTIL WE
GET INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH MORE READINGS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): TIMING OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE INITIAL PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED...
COMPLICATED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE ISSUES (AND CHANGES
IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE DETAILS)...AS WELL AS POSITION/EVOLUTION OF
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.  AT THIS POINT...BEST PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY...CAN GO EITHER WAY ON TUESDAY BUT WILL LEAVE
IT DRY SINCE THIS IS VERY MUCH A POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOP DAY GIVEN
EXPECTED CHANGES IN FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS.  THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES.  FOR NOW
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS PUSHING NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY.  IF
WE CAN GET FARTHER INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
END UP TRENDING DRIER (THOUGH WARM AND HUMID)...BUT THAT IS TOO MUCH
OF AN UNKNOWN AS YET AND WILL CONCEDE THAT THE DETAILS WILL CHANGE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR THE INEVITABLE DAY OF MCS REMNANTS WHERE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS BUST FORECASTS AND HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
(WEDNESDAY???).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH LAKE BREEZES
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HOLDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NO MARINE ISSUES
FORESEEN. THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...SWR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AJS