Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 250310
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1010 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING
THANKS TO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES HAS NOT YET ARRIVED...BUT WILL DO
SO OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL TO INTO THE LOW NEGATIVE TEENS.
AT THIS TIME...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BOOST ONGOING WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITHIN THE TYPICAL W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOWBELTS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME SNOWFALL TOTALS
TO 4 TO 7 INCHES. AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES...THE REST OF OUR CWA
WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL CERTAINLY
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TOWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY ENHANCED NEAR THE STRAITS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DOMINATION
RETURNS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
COURTESY OF REX BLOCK REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SUBSEQUENT RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...WITH THE FIRST LIFTING TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT THE MOMENT - OUR FUN FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE FROM ALBERTA DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SEPARATE PIECE OF ENERGY ROLLING
THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED...EACH SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ITS OWN SET OF FORECAST
CHALLENGES...MAINLY OF THE "HOW MUCH SNOW" VARIETY.

TUESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER.
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLATED TO BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WIGGLE
IN THE FLOW WORKING ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREVALENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION FORCING SHOULD YIELD A PERSISTENT THOUGH LESS INTENSE
AXIS OF SNOW WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STARK LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE THROUGH THE MORNING WORKING IN TANDEM WITH MODEST
LAKE INSTABILITY (DELTA T`S AROUND 18C) SHOULD ADD A BOOST TO THE
OVERALL LIGHT SNOW SHIELD FOR FAVORED NW TO W/NW FLOW AREAS. RATHER
DEEP AXIS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE
BEST LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA...SUGGESTING RATIOS MAY NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH...THOUGH LIKELY STILL ON THE ORDER OF 15+ TO 1 SIMPLY GIVEN THE
DEEPER NATURE OF THE DGZ. ALL TOLD...EXPECT A GENERAL 1-1.5" OF
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE DAY...PRIMARILY
DURING THE MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING 2-4" FOR
THE FAVORED AREAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: DEEP MOISTURE WILL THIN QUICKLY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WEAKENING FLOW EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS
TO BRIDGE THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TYPES OF SETUPS ARE ALWAYS A
CHALLENGE FROM A LAKE SNOW STANDPOINT AS WEAK FLOW IN A STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PROMOTE PLENTY OF MESOSCALE
PROCESSES... AND INDEED WE MAY WELL SEE THIS TYPE OF SETUP PLAY OUT.
BACKED FLOW REGIME MORE W/SW SHOULD FAVOR PERSISTENT LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE VORTEX OR TWO TO SPIN UP AS HINTED AT BY
SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL...DON`T
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SUNSHINE FOR INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES...FURTHER HELPING ENHANCE EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED
TROUGHING. INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD WORK WITH WEAKER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DELIVER AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND SOMEWHERE UP TOWARD
THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES (PLACEMENT VERY UNCERTAIN)...WITH A
NICE FLAREUP OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE SEEN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS
QUITE A FEW TIMES OVER THE YEARS...AND TYPICALLY THERE IS A QUICK
BURST OF 1-2" OF SNOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. SEE NO REASON THAT
COULDN`T HAPPEN HERE...WITH A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO NW OR N/NW
FLOW LAKE SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A
CHUNK OF QUITE CHILLY AIR (H8 TEMPS AROUND -18C) PLUNGES INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ENDING BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS 1000-850 MB WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TIMING OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF WARM
ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES
NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO WHICH MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
RISING ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WON`T LAST LONG AS THE LOW CONTINUES
INTO QUEBEC AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW THANKS TO STRONG CAA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS
AND DEEP WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. INCREASING
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEND SOME W/NW FLOW LAKE CONTRIBUTION
TO SNOWFALL INTENSITY FOR THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NW AND N
CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS
EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SOUTH OF
PRESQUE ISLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>347.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE/MJG
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM



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