Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 052331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE FLURRIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LOW VFR CLOUDINESS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION AS WELL ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR



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