Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...LAWRENCE






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