Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

We are starting to see the uptick in radar activity that the
models have been suggesting for the afternoon. Rain showers are
breaking out near the Straits with more bubbling upstream on the
other side of Lake Michigan. So the going forecast is looking


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High impact weather potential: Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon in mainly NE lower. No severe expected..but small
hailers are possible.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing was settling in over the western Great Lakes,
with an upper low and it`s associated sfc low pressure gradually
moving into Quebec. A sfc trough axis extends from this low pressure
back to the SW and through Lake Superior and Wisconsin. There were
some scattered light rains/sprinkles along/ahead of this sfc trough
south of the Keweenaw peninsula, seemingly associated with a weak
perturbation in he WNW flow aloft. There were several other weak
perturbations/vorticity maxima in the flow, as they rotate around
the backside of the upper troughing, but any additional rains were
very isolated further west. There were a couple of other more
defined shortwaves, one in srn Manitoba and another pressing SE
through Saskatchewan.

Pretty quiet on the radar right now, with no reflectivities or obs
showing any light rains. The weak perturbation/sfc trough and
associated batch of light rain/sprinkles south of the Keweenaw, does
wrap into nrn Michigan this morning. This may be able to provide
some spotty light rain, but the better chances for showers and
storms comes with diurnal/peak heating this afternoon/early evening,
coincident with gradually cooling air aloft with the upper trough
axis. Maybe there is a vort max to help things out, but with light
winds resulting in lake breezes, low level convergence across mainly
NE lower and interior eastern upper, there`s likely more than enough
to pop off isolated to scattered activity in these areas. CAPE isn`t
out of this world by any stretch of the imagination. SBCAPE near
1000j/kg and MLCAPE around 500-600j/kg across NE lower. Little to no
instability in eastern upper, so will leave thunder out there. Wet
bulb zero heights are low at 8300feet or so. Small hail seems like a
decent enough expectation in NE lower storms, but no severe weather.

Diurnal heating being lost into the evening will do the usual, start
weakening and decreasing the areal extent of showers. Any weak
perturbation in the flow, especially the the aforementioned shortwave
from Saskatchewan does arrive overnight (although most forcing will
be SW of us), and may be able to sustain a shower or two further
into the evening. Finding/timing something like that is too
difficult. So, will just taper off chances for showers into the
overnight. The best evening chance seems to be across NE lower near
Saginaw Bay, as well as something else we see. Showers that develop
in lake breeze convergence in south central upper Michigan and NE
Wisconsin, will try and make it across Lake Michigan (in WNW flow
aloft) and impact portions of NW lower.

Highs today in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with downsloping areas
of NE lower in the middle 70s. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to
lower 50s most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Lingering showers then drying out...

High impact weather potential...None expected.

What appears to be the last in the long series of short waves
rotating around the departing upper level trough moves through on
Tuesday. This will lead to more decent chances for showers
and possible afternoon thunderstorms (couple hundred J/KG of ML
Cape). Short wave ridging then leads to a brief break in the active
weather Wednesday. Remaining cool Tuesday with some moderation in
temperatures expected Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Pacific energy will lead to renewed shower and thunderstorm chances
Wednesday night into Thursday. After a couple of warmer days
Thursday and Friday, subtly lowering heights over the weekend will
lead to cooler temperatures once again along with chances for
showers (and perhaps even thunderstorms).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Showers and Thunderstorms will continue, mainly on the east side
of the state as the upper level low and the daytime heating
continue today. One thing noted is that the west side of the state
is having a bit of a "lake shadow" helping to keep the convection
down a bit until it gets in the vicinity of I-75. As we lose the
heating in the evening, the showers will diminish to some very
isolated showers that shouldn`t impact the TAF sites overnight.
Tuesday looks to be similar with the west side with limited
convection and the east side with the convection again. So expect
the better chances of showers and thunder on the east side with
the better chances for MVFR CIGs as well.


Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Sfc low pressure moving through Quebec will keep westerly flow
across the region today through Tuesday with generally light winds.
Lake breezes expected this afternoon, and possibly Tuesday
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will develop within the
lake breeze convergence regions and then propagate ESE into some of
the nearshore waters. A handful of storms in NE lower would move out
over portions of nrn Lake Huron. No severe weather anticipated, but
small hail will be possible. Higher pressure then settles in for
Wednesday with more lake breezes.




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