644
FXUS63 KAPX 081027
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
627 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower chances later today, mainly northwest lower
  and eastern upper.

- Better shower and thunder coverage Wednesday, but more
  confined to northeast lower.

- Rain-free weather Thursday precedes a more appreciable rain
  chance later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Broad area of high pressure moving out of the region but still
exuding its influence with ample dry air through the column per the
00z sounding, save for some meager elevated moisture streaming ahead
of an approaching shortwave, which has kept some high cloud
overhead. Stationary front roughly stretching from the Sand Hills of
Nebraska eastward through the Ohio Valley will lift northward as the
shortwave approaches, stalling south of the area later Tuesday
night. Despite better forcing and moisture getting suppressed to the
south, just enough moisture builds amid daytime heating to support
shower and storm development across northern Wisconsin and central
upper Michigan later today, which will move toward the area. In a
tale as old as time, much of this activity will wait until late
afternoon into the evening, with the maintenance of this activity
likely floundering as it approaches northwest lower and eastern
upper. Not anticipating anything disruptive across NW lower and
eastern upper, but a few minimal impact showers and perhaps a rumble
of thunder possible this evening... before activity diminishes due
to loss of (already minimal) diurnal instability. As such, PoPs to
be confined across NW lower through the evening, with just some
slight chance PoPs across the area for tonight as the loss of
instability keeps a cap on things across the area (wouldn`t be
surprising if everyone holds dry tonight). Highs ranging from 74 to
82 across the region, with a milder, more humid night as lows hold
55 to 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

As stated by previous forecaster, slow progression of troughing
supporting a better shot at showers and thunder during the day on
Wednesday, particularly across northeast lower, where timing will be
more favorable for diurnal instability to support shower and storm
development in the afternoon. Outside of those downpours on
Wednesday, expecting most areas to probably see less than 0.10" of
rain if anything through Wednesday evening... certainly a bit more
rainfall is possible in any showers and storms Wednesday, but
activity looks transient enough to fend off any hydrologic concerns
across the Saginaw Bay region, which was just tagged with localized
rainfall amounts in excess of 4" on Sunday. Drier weather returns
Thursday before another wave plods through the region to close out
the week and kick off the upcoming weekend, returning shower and
thunder chances later Friday and again Saturday. Temperatures will
be on a slow climb throughout the long term, with highs going from
the upper 60s to near 80 Wednesday to the low-to-mid 80s Friday and
beyond (perhaps upper 80s in places Friday and beyond, convection
pending)... and lows 55 to 65 Wed / Thu nights, and 60 to near 70
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Outside of any brief lingering BR at MBL this morning, (which
will likely either diminish by 12Z, or within an hour
thereafter) VFR conditions are expected through much of the
period. Few -SHRA develop this evening and overnight with
uncertainty revolved around the coverage and location. Thus, no
inclusion at terminals this time. CIGs remain above 050 through
at least 06Z tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD