000
FXUS63 KAPX 230837
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERVIEW: STRONG W/SW FLOW ABOUT TO PUNCH INTO THE PACIFIC NW
THIS MORNING...FEEDING INTO BROAD RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SPLIT FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG WAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND BRINGING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE GULF COAST. IN THE NRN BRANCH...SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW NOW ADVANCING INTO ONTARIO.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS HAS
TAPPED SOME OF THE "WARMER" AIR IN THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A
TONGUE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT NOW PRESSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. UPPER JET STREAK ALSO ANALYZED
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO QUEBEC. COMBINATION UPPER JET FORCING AND
WARM ADVECTION IS PRODUCING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...SOME
OF WHICH IS SAGGING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING...WHILE TAIL END OF UPPER JET STREAK
SKIRTS THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF QG-ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP STILL LOOKING TO SLOWLY SAG DOWN INTO FAR NRN MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING AND DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAKENING/DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
TIME BY THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS AXIS OF PRECIP MAY NEVER GET
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY
EVENING...AND HAVE GRADUATED N-S POPS ACCORDINGLY.

PRECIP TYPE...DESPITE AXIS OF WARMER AIR GETTING STRETCHED INTO
NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY
COOLER THAN THEY WERE A FEW DAYS BACK...0C H8 AIR JUST BARELY
SKIRTING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PARTIALLY ERODED BY EVAP
COOLING PROCESSES. THUS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW
ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 30 NORTH AND THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. HAVE CONFINED FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY GIVEN THE
COLDER SFC TEMPS AND BETTER FORCING UP THAT WAY...BUT TO JUST
AROUND AN INCH AT BEST.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF FORCING CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND FALL
APART WHILE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION LEAVING A
SHRINKING LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER LARGELY BELOW THE -10C
LEVEL...TELLTALE SIGN OF DZ/FZDZ POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT (MAY
ACTUALLY SEE SOME FZDZ IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON). THUS GOING FORECAST OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
TRANSITIONING TO FZDZ LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE HOVERS
NEAR OR JUST UNDER -10C. DRIER AIR THEN ADVECTS IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES.
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY PERHAPS BRINGING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR A BIT OF
NORTHEAST FLOW LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE HURON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SHUTTING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION. MILD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S BUT ONLY THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL THEN MAKE A RETURN FOR MIDWEEK
LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK (AND MONTH) AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN THE MILDER
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING BACK INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALREADY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. MVFR CLOUDS WILL PRESS INTO
THE APN TERMINAL SITE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IF BKN CIGS WILL DEVELOP THERE OR NOT AS DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW MAY KEEP SKIES MORE SCATTERED.

THEN...WARMING ALOFT MAY BRING ABOUT A THINNING OF THE STRATUS
DECK LATER THIS MORNING...WITH PLN/TVC/MBL POTENTIALLY SCATTERING
BACK OUT ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF
FORECAST. BUT CORRIDOR OF THICKER LOW-MID CLOUD AND BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

STRONG WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN LLWS
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM