


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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723 FXUS63 KAPX 080628 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower chances later today, mainly northwest lower and eastern upper. - Better shower and thunder coverage Wednesday, but more confined to northeast lower. - Rain-free weather Thursday precedes a more appreciable rain chance later Friday into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Broad area of high pressure moving out of the region but still exuding its influence with ample dry air through the column per the 00z sounding, save for some meager elevated moisture streaming ahead of an approaching shortwave, which has kept some high cloud overhead. Stationary front roughly stretching from the Sand Hills of Nebraska eastward through the Ohio Valley will lift northward as the shortwave approaches, stalling south of the area later Tuesday night. Despite better forcing and moisture getting suppressed to the south, just enough moisture builds amid daytime heating to support shower and storm development across northern Wisconsin and central upper Michigan later today, which will move toward the area. In a tale as old as time, much of this activity will wait until late afternoon into the evening, with the maintenance of this activity likely floundering as it approaches northwest lower and eastern upper. Not anticipating anything disruptive across NW lower and eastern upper, but a few minimal impact showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder possible this evening... before activity diminishes due to loss of (already minimal) diurnal instability. As such, PoPs to be confined across NW lower through the evening, with just some slight chance PoPs across the area for tonight as the loss of instability keeps a cap on things across the area (wouldn`t be surprising if everyone holds dry tonight). Highs ranging from 74 to 82 across the region, with a milder, more humid night as lows hold 55 to 65. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 As stated by previous forecaster, slow progression of troughing supporting a better shot at showers and thunder during the day on Wednesday, particularly across northeast lower, where timing will be more favorable for diurnal instability to support shower and storm development in the afternoon. Outside of those downpours on Wednesday, expecting most areas to probably see less than 0.10" of rain if anything through Wednesday evening... certainly a bit more rainfall is possible in any showers and storms Wednesday, but activity looks transient enough to fend off any hydrologic concerns across the Saginaw Bay region, which was just tagged with localized rainfall amounts in excess of 4" on Sunday. Drier weather returns Thursday before another wave plods through the region to close out the week and kick off the upcoming weekend, returning shower and thunder chances later Friday and again Saturday. Temperatures will be on a slow climb throughout the long term, with highs going from the upper 60s to near 80 Wednesday to the low-to-mid 80s Friday and beyond (perhaps upper 80s in places Friday and beyond, convection pending)... and lows 55 to 65 Wed / Thu nights, and 60 to near 70 through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Chance for MVFR to IFR producing fog/mist through early this morning morning...especially at KMBL and KPLN. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions under just some passing high clouds and higher based cumulus. Light winds through the period. Chance for some showery activity late in the period, but too ISO to include in TAFs at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...JLD