Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
149 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Issued at 914 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

System backside moisture plume and just enough upslope enhancement
continues to kick off scattered rain/snow showers across northern
lower Michigan this morning. Moisture will steadily thin through
the day, likely ending the shower threat shortly. Thinning clouds
already noted here at the office, so would even expect some
increasing sunshine heading into early this afternoon. Cold air
advection has about reached its peak, with slow moderation
expected to begin. Not warm by any means, but throw in some
sunshine and afternoon highs well into the 50s/lower 60s looks
easily attainable for much of northeast lower Michigan. Cooler
conditions expected near Lake Michigan and across eastern upper
Michigan, where highs will only top out in the 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep cyclonic flow remains over the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes region early this
morning in the wake of departing low pressure now centered over
James Bay. A few areas of scattered shower activity continue to fire
over these areas thanks to deep cyclonic flow and wrap-around
moisture. Shower activity across our CWA has significantly increases
overnight...especially for areas along and south of M-32. All precip
south of the Bridge remains plain rain with temps holding in the
upper 30s and lower 40s...while a scattered mix of rain and snow is
fall across Eastern Upper Michigan per regional obs and temps in the
mid 30s.

As temps fall a few degrees early this morning...some light snow may
begin to mix with the light rain showers over portions of Northern
Lower Michigan. Short term models are trying to latch on to
reality...but are still falling short. Will need to add/increase
POPs for much of our area thru mid morning or so until wrap-around
moisture exits our CWA. Clouds will gradually decrease from south to
north during the afternoon as drier low level air temporarily moves
into our CWA. Clouds will again increase from south to north this
evening along the northern edge of deeper moisture associated with
low pressure tracking thru the Ohio Valley. Precip chances
associated with this system will be limited to our far southern CWA
along and south of M-55...with all precip remaining all liquid thru
the night.

High temps today will vary quite a bit across our CWA...ranging from
the low to mid 40s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 60s near
Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 30s in
Eastern Upper Michigan to the upper 30s to near 40 in our SE CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Soaking rains Saturday night through Sunday night...

High impact weather potential...Moderate to heavy rainfall at times
Saturday night through Sunday night, particularly over northern
Lower MI. Thunderstorms possible Sunday night over northern Lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure will drift across the
Upper Great Lakes region on Saturday, keeping most of northern
Michigan dry through the day and allowing for a decent amount of
sunshine north of M-32. Atmospheric moisture will slowly increase
from south to north through the day, with PWATs climbing above 1"
Saturday night into Sunday. Several rounds of rain are expected
across northern MI from Saturday night through Sunday night (and
into Monday for that matter) as a developing cyclone over the
Southern Plains gradually lifts into the Upper Midwest. The rain
will overspread northern Michigan from south to north beginning
Saturday evening as WAA and isentropic lift develop over the region.
This activity will continue into Sunday, enhanced by frontogenetic
forcing that will lift north across the area. The bulk of the heavy
rain will be confined to northern Lower with lighter rainfall
expected across eastern Upper (where a few wet snowflakes could
initially mix in Sunday morning). Marginal elevated instability will
come into play over northern Lower Sunday night with around 200 J/kg
of MUCAPE, so will continue with a chance of thunderstorms.

The ongoing warm air advection Saturday night into Sunday will
actually be realized aloft, so a cooling trend will continue over
the weekend as Saturday`s northerly winds veer to the northeast on
Sunday. Highs Saturday will range from the 40s to mid 50s, while
Sunday will only be in the 40s.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Forecast rainfall amounts over the
weekend (and into Monday for that matter) will need to be monitored.
Model consensus places the heaviest QPF axis southeast of a line
from Cadillac to Alpena, where there is potential for 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) from Saturday night through daybreak Monday. SREF
QPF plumes all across northern Lower show a large amount of spread
through 12Z Monday, so confidence in specific amounts for a given
location remains somewhat low. But the signals are there for
excessive rainfall potential, especially closer to Saginaw Bay.
Rainfall totals will decrease the farther north one goes, with
eastern Upper expected to see around a half inch or less through
daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

High impact weather potential...Moderate to heavy rainfall will
continue Monday morning across northern Michigan.

Intense occluded low will lift from Iowa into Wisconsin on Monday,
pushing the occluded front north of the area into Ontario. Strong
divergence aloft, WAA, and frontogenesis will all contribute to one
last round of heavy rainfall Monday morning across northern
Michigan. Thunderstorms will also be possible through early
afternoon as temperatures climb into the 50s to low 60s.

Wrap around showers are expected Monday night through Tuesday as the
core of the system passes through northern Michigan. The showers
will diminish Tuesday night, but will retain a slight chance heading
into Wednesday. With temperatures dropping well into the 30s Tuesday
night, some wet snowflakes may mix in with the rain over eastern
Upper and interior northern Lower. High pressure and a drier airmass
will build into the region on Thursday, with temperatures through
midweek near or just below seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

MVFR producing cloud deck now steadily eroding from south to
north, and should continue to do so for the next few hours. Clouds
will then thicken from the same direction later this afternoon and
evening, but should remain well within VFR category. May even see
a few very light showers fall from this cloud deck this evening,
although no restrictions are anticipated. Clouds are expected to
again scatter out some heading through Saturday morning. Gusty
winds this afternoon expected to subside tonight.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

SCA conditions will continue for much of our nearshore areas today
as SW winds continue to gust to 15 to 25 kts in the wake of
departing low pressure now centered over James Bay. Scattered light
rain showers...possibly mixed at times with some light snow early
this morning...will continue thru mid morning before ending. Looking
ahead...wet and cool weather is expected for the first half of next
week with SCA conditions likely returning.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-


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