Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 131045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MICHIGAN TODAY...OPENING THE DOOR
FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...WARM AND WINDY TO END THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE...AND ONE RAPIDLY TRENDING TO AN ANOMALOUS
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION. EASY TO NOTICE KEY PLAYERS IN THIS RAPID
AMPLIFICATION PROCESS ON LATEST NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH
STOUT RIDGING BUILDING UP ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST...WITH DEEP
TROUGHING DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SUCH CHANGES DO
NOT OFTEN COME ABOUT QUIETLY...AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT.
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING ON SOUTH SIDE OF DEEPENING
UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS SPINNING UP QUITE THE BIT OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PER THE USUAL...ALL DEEP
INSTABILITY CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AND THAT IS
WHERE ALL THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES. STILL...SOME
RATHER MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WAS EXPERIENCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWOODS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING SOME LOCALES UP AND OVER A
HALF AN INCH. END IS NEAR...HOWEVER...AS VORT LOBE/DEEP LAYER
FORCING IS RAPIDLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WITH NOTED DRYING
ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. DECAYING
FORCING ALONG APPROACHING NORTHWEST LAKES COLD FRONT HELPING DRIVE A
DYING AREA OF CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY LAST TO KEEP A SHOWER
THREAT GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING. MAIN SLUG
OF MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THIS
INITIAL FRONT...WITH READINGS PLUNGING INTO THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA (THAT WILL BE TUESDAY`S "FUN"...SEE LONG TERM PART OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THAT BIT OF GOOD NEWS).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING POSSIBLE LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWER THREAT TODAY. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DETAILS: REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM DECAYING FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL RUN INTO INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT ENCOUNTERS CURRENT OVERHEAD SYSTEM`S
SUBSIDENCE REGIME AND ATTENDANT DRYING. OLD SCHOOL THOUGHT IS TO
NEVER GO DRY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SIMPLY HARD TO IGNORE LACK
OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUPPORT ALONG PASSING FRONTAL AXIS. SO...OTHER
THAN A PASSING SHOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PLAN IS
TO RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY. AS MENTIONED...MAIN PUSH OF COLDER
AIR HOLDS OFF FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE...WILL ALLOW ANOTHER MILD TO WARM DAY...WITH DEVELOPING
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HELPING THE WARMING CAUSE IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. REALLY LIKE INHERITED
HIGHS...SHOWING READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA...AND INTO THE 80S IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS
SHARP SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LAKES HELPS BUILD
OVERHEAD LOW AMP RIDGING. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEPER SURGE OF
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS MAY BRING THE
THREAT FOR A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE STRAITS
TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP
INTO MICHIGAN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL THEN STALL OVER OUR
STATE THRU TUESDAY. STILL APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED...BUT CERTAINLY MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...SHARP
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP TO WARRANT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP/HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS
INTO NRN MICHIGAN THRU THE BASE OF THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. OUR COOLING TREND WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD MONDAY THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL CAA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...WILL COOL TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 FOR
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...LAST VESTIGES OF UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO WEDNESDAY...
MAINTAINING PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHOWERS...WITH NO REAL
THREAT OF THUNDER. TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DEEP RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL USHER IN THE START OF
A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
QUITE COOL FOR MID JULY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS WILL ONLY IN THE
60S. TEMPS WILL FINALLY POP BACK UP INTO THE 70S THURSDAY...WARMING
WELL INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
12Z MONDAY...BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS TODAY...BECOME NW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE BIG WATERS...WITH WINDS QUICKLY
SUBSIDING HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS...MAINTENANCE OF OVER-WATER STABILITY WILL KEEP BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB






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