Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232310
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH



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