Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300147
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
947 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL DELIVER A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
ON LABOR DAY...AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR A WHILE...IT LOOKED AS IF THE EVENING WOULD BE VERY QUIET.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS A PERSISTENT BULLSEYE OF 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE
LAKE HAS CONGEALED AS IT HAS MOVED NE...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY SEEN N AND NW OF GD TRAV BAY. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY IS
SEEN IN WI (00Z GRB SOUNDING HAVE OVER 2500J/KG OF SBCAPE)...AND
THIS IS FEEDING ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI. POPS HAVE BEEN
BOOSTED OVER OVER EASTERN UPPER MI/STRAITS REGION.

FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASINGLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LESS
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE OVER NW AND W-CENTRAL LOWER MI. 00Z APX
SOUNDING COULD ONLY MANAGE 200-300J/KG CAPE WHEN LIFTING FROM THE
800-700MB LAYER. STILL APPEARS THAT MORE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW...IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE
ADVANCING RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN MIZZOU. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN
NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER MI LOOKS TO BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...MUGGY TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED.

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1007 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. APX AND
SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS TONIGHT.

THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW (PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF BETWEEN AN
IMPRESSIVE 1.5 AND 2 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL AS
INCREASING THETA-E RIDING LATE. IN ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH FORCING APPEARS TO BE HARD TO COME BY
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW CLOSER. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...THIS
COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO
THE MUGGY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST GROUNDS
FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY. LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...

HEMISPHERIC 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NOAM TODAY BUT WITH SEVERAL
RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN...SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT
STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING/
ABSORBING LOW PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER
STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW COASTLINE
TODAY THAT WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES ON LABOR DAY.

FORECAST EVOLUTION THROUGH SATURDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
ANTICIPATED LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM
WILL GET SLOWLY DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PICKED UP/ABSORBED BY CANADIAN TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
DEEP LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR (THETA-E) TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
CONFIGURATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY BRINGING OUR FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE CWA. LOOKING TO
CATCH A BIT OF A LULL TONIGHT AFTER OUR INITIAL WARM/MOIST SURGE
WHILE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ALIGNS ITSELF BACK TO THE WEST ALONG
INCOMING COLD FRONT AND CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES SATURDAY AS COLD
FRONT AND PLAINS SHORT WAVE SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT BEFORE SHORT WAVE/ATTENDING SFC
LOW RIDES NE ALONG THE FRONT CROSSING THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MORE RAIN IS ON THE
WAY WITH CATEGORICAL 12-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY A GOOD BET. BUT THE EXACT PRECIP EVOLUTION/
TIMING REMAINS A BIT ELUSIVE AND IS DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT OCCURS
UPSTREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL GOOD SUPPORT FOR
AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO FURTHER CONGEAL TO OUR WEST TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS STRONG UPPER JET CORE DEVELOPS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX RUNS UP THROUGH
WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BUT EXACT EVOLUTION WILL ALSO BE
MUDDIED BY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SE MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND FORCING ADVANCE INTO REGION. BUT RIGHT NOW
APPEARS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TONIGHT AND ULTIMATELY ADVANCE THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WITH HEATING AND WITH THE FRONT INCHING
IT/S WAY INTO THE CWA. HAVE ADDED A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING TO FORECAST
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP INTO THE CWA...
BUT BLANKET POPS/WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW CONTINUES NE UP INTO
CANADA WITH WRAP AROUND RAIN DRAGGING UP THROUGH THE NRN/NE PART OF
THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING. RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW SUGGEST COLD
FRONT NEVER ACTUALLY GETS A BIG PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT INSTEAD GETS HUNG UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND MAY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BUT SUNDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE THE BEST DAY
OVERALL FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS INTERVENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AND WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

LABOR DAY...SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AND ATTENDING
SFC COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ANOTHER AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
INTO THE REGION BEFORE FROPA LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL A GOOD BET FOR MONDAY...ITS JUST A
QUESTION OF TIMING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
DRAGGING THE FRONT/PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN PART OF CWA MID TO LATE
MORNING...GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE PLANNING ON THE BRIDGE WALK AS THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY ON. BUT AGAIN THATS STILL 3
DAYS OUT AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN THE BRIDGE WALK SHOULD PLAN ON
BRINGING RAIN GEAR. OTHERWISE...GUSTIER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
PRIOR TO FROPA AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SOMETHING ELSE TO THINK ABOUT
IF WALKING THE BRIDGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN REESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES/SRN CANADA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. ORIGINALLY LOOKED DRY OVERALL. BUT TODAY...GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES A FEW RIPPLES AND A STRUNG OUT COLD FRONT SLIPPING THE
REGION IN THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
STRETCH OF HEAVIER RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING
THAT TIME (WATCH OUT FOR THOSE E-W ORIENTED STALLED BOUNDARIES).
WILL SEE HOW IT GOES...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LLWS TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS SATURDAY TVC/MBL...POSSIBLE APN/PLN.
PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE FORECAST.

MI SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST...AND LOW
PRESSURE IN MN/IOWA. WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
NORTH INTO THE REGION...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY
THRU SAT NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL PUSH 40KT
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LLWS. A STRAY SHRA/TSRA COULD POP UP AT
ANYTIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT AT MBL/TVC...AND
SAT AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
OFF OF LAKE MI INTO TVC/MBL SATURDAY.

S TO SE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SW SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WHITEFISH
BAY AND PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO AREAS OF COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE GUSTS. MORE VARIABLE AND LIGHTER WINDS
ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT PLANNED TO PASS THROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





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