Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200242
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
942 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tricky weather pattern setting up which should continue to be the
case over the next few days. On the current surface weather map,
weak low pressure centers were over eastern Kentucky and western
Missouri and weak high pressure was over New England. This has
resulted in a light southerly flow across northern Michigan. Still
a decent plume of moisture in the form of rain across the Ohio
Valley moving northward. However, the northern edge of the rain is
getting eaten up across our neck of the woods because of the
preponderance of dry mid level air above about 925 mb per 20/00z
APX sounding along with model soundings. HiRes data does not bring
any qpf into any of our forecast area including MBL until after
12z. Therefore, have taken out the chance pops. Status continues
to hang on across much of the northern half of the forecast area
with ceilings actually lowering this evening. Meanwhile, fog has
formed across much of the area and has become locally dense in a
few areas. So have made this change as well as raised temperatures
as guidance continues to be too cool as it has over the last
couple of nights. This is not a surprise since temperatures in
this range are a good 25 degrees above normal climo for the last
half of January.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...low, some mixed precip possible
on Friday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split flow pattern across the CONUS
with northern branch ridging through the northern plains and Great
Lakes, and closed shortwave trough over the central and southern
plains. Broad surface high pressure resides across the eastern
CONUS. Weakly organized low pressure sits over the lower
Mississippi River Valley along with moisture/clouds and precip
streaming northward toward the Ohio River Valley ahead of the
closed low in the plains. Here at home, stratus and some fog have
hung on through the day. But, a good amount of thinning/clearing
of the low clouds has taken shape downstate over the last one to
two hours and is progressing into northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...clearing trend tonight, mixed precip
potential on Friday.

Initially, anticipate some sort of S-N clearing trend heading
into the evening hours, although low clouds will simply get
replaced by thickening mid and high cloud cover. But there may be
a few hours with partly cloudy skies for some locations.

Meanwhile, moisture/precip continues to stream northward through
the Mississippi River Valley ahead of plains closed shortwave
trough, with showers already as far north as northern Illinois/eastern
Iowa. Shortwave will wobble its` up into the Midwest/western Great
Lakes through the day on Friday, on its` way to getting reabsorbed
into the main flow. Still anticipate a decaying axis of precip to
pivot up through the region late tonight and through the day
Friday bringing a relatively lower amount of precip across the
area, probably on the order of 0.05 to 0.15, possibly a little
more across the S/SW counties.

Bigger forecast issue is precip type. Guidance continues to
suggest a subtle low level cooling trend as the upper trough
pivots into the region. Combined with a wedge of fairly dry air in
the lower levels and lots of room for evaporative coolings/wet
bulb temps dropping to near 0C on Friday suggests precip may start
as snow or a mix early on before gradually becoming rain during
the day Friday as surface temps warm. But with relatively lower
end precip amounts anticipated, not to overly concerned about the
wintry mixed precip potential at this point. In fact, given the
wedge of dry air in the lower levels, it is possible that we see
very little precip with this system. Will see how it goes...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low moves into IA by Saturday
morning pushing a warm front into MI. Another low on its
heels moves through TX Saturday and into the TN Valley Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Warm front swings through Saturday with
the chance of some rain. Then as next system approaches broad area
of isentropic lift develops over the region Sunday with little
synoptic forcing. Moisture depth not great through the weekend so
looking at mostly chancy pops. 850mb temps remain above 0C through
the weekend as well with temperatures running about 15 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Well above normal temperatures will continue through the extended
period. Pattern remains nebulous, with a few systems in or near the
region through the week. Lots of uncertainty right now, so will
leave the consensus, generally low chance PoPs through early in the
week, as we look to remain on the northern fringes of systems as
they pass to our south. Better chances for rain, and perhaps a
wintry mix, will come with a mid-week system. Looks like we could
see the return of some colder air later in the week behind this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 628 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Another difficult aviation forecast. Weak high pressure will give
way to weak low pressure moving across the region Friday. IFR/LIFR
low clouds currently cover the TAF sites except for KMBL where
drier low level air has moved in. The low cigs are expected to
remain across KPLN and KAPN while they lift out of KTVC and KMBL.
Fog and stratus may fill in where the low clouds lift though.
Meanwhile...light precipitation from the area of low pressure
will bring chances for a little rain or mixed precipitation early
Friday and through the day Friday. Winds will be fairly light
through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Light winds/waves expected for the next few days, with no marine
headlines anticipated.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...KJF
LONG TERM...KJF
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...TBA


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