Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

High impact weather potential: non-severe thunder chances
return this afternoon/evening.

Semi-permanent, deep southwest flow remains in place, ahead of
1005mb low pressure over far eastern Neb. A stationary front
extends ne and e from the low, passing just north of Whitefish Pt.
The surface low and parent 500mb trof will gradually lift into the
upper MS valley thru tonight. Until this system passes, we will
remain in a moist and potentially unstable airmass, and prone to
occasional bouts of SHRA/TSRA. One such bout is presently
producing rain across eastern upper and far ne lower MI. Precip
trends are the main concern.

Today...reasonably widespread rain will continue to lift north
across northern sections through 12z/8am. Spottier showers,
over central and southern Lake MI, will impact parts of nw lower.
Our airmass is moist enough that it will take any little ripple,
or some healthy diurnal heating, to kick us back into precip-
generation mode. Expect something of a lull this morning,
particularly in ne lower MI, with stray -SHRA elsewhere. A
relative lack of diurnal instability, and a 500mb shortwave ridge
axis positioned just north of us, will contribute to a somewhat
quiet morning. But we will be warming back up, and as temps climb
back into the 70s and lower 80s, and as the shortwave ridge eases
further north, the SHRA/TSRA threat will increase again this
afternoon. Sct wording is again in order for the 2nd half of the
day, with some parts of nw lower MI (mainly w of TVC) being lake-
shadowed. Instability is unimpressive, a function of mid- level
lapse rates struggling to exceed 6c/km. Mlcapes should stay in
triple digits, and with 0-6km bulk shears of only 20-25kt, a svr
threat is unlikely.

Most areas will have more cloud cover than we/ve seen over the last
few days. That won`t preclude a decent warmup, but the Nam/Met
guidance numbers look a tad aggressive. Highs will be most commonly
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight...precip coverage should remain healthy thru the evening
hours, then wane overnight as instability lessens. This is favored
by most, but certainly not all, short-range models. It is the most
likely evolution, as long as we don`t see a reasonably strong MCV
eject from the central/southern plains late tonight. The Nam does
exactly that, and has a narrow area of enhanced precip in the late
evening and overnight hours from northern IL into nw lower and
eastern upper MI. This solution seems less likely, though certainly
not impossible, and hinges on a potential feature that is of limited
predictability even just 24 hours out. Cloud cover will be4
considerable, though probably not total, and any breaks will
contribute to some overnight fog potential. Min temps remain warm,
near 60f to the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

...More rain Sunday but drier and less humid for Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Scattered strong storms possible
Sunday afternoon/evening with a hail and wind threat.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features a split long
wave trough over western North America...with northern branch
troughing over British Columbia/Alberta and clipping the northwest
corner of the CONUS...which a southern branch short wave trough over
the central/southern plains.  Low amplitude ridging extends from the
south Atlantic northwest through the Great Lakes with some nascent
tropical development to the west of this ridge north of the Bahamas.
A broad area of low pressure exists across the midwest/plains ahead
of the southern branch short wave trough...one area of organized low
pressure was over Kansas/Oklahoma with a wavy frontal boundary
stretching northeast into the midwest and upper Great Lakes with
another weak frontal wave over western Wisconsin.

Central/southern plains short wave trough will continue to slowly
lift northeast across the Mississippi Valley Sunday...which will
allow the front across lower Michigan to lift north into northern
Ontario.  Short wave energy will swing across northern Michigan
Sunday afternoon/evening...followed by some ridging at the surface
and aloft moving into the upper Lakes later Monday into Monday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Short wave passage Sunday/Sunday night
and potential for more thunderstorms and possibility of severe
storms.

Sunday...Current forecast trends suggest that there should be a
relative lull in the action as far as precipitation goes Sunday
morning...with an increased threat with daytime heating (after some
morning stratus) in concert with dew points in the 60-65F range
generating MLCAPE values in the 500-1000+ J/kg range.  Arrival of
forcing with approaching short wave trough will provide for large
scale support to augment localized convergence...so plan to increase
PoPs for the afternoon into the evening hours with the threat for
precipitation likely diminishing overnight.  Not a ton of deep layer
shear forecast Sunday afternoon at time of peak destabilization but
should be enough (around 20kt 0-6km) to allow for some storm
organization...and potential mid level drying would also support a
downburst threat. SPC Day 2 marginal severe risk looks quite
reasonable at this point. Should be warm and a bit on the muggy side
Sunday with highs in the 70s across eastern Upper and upper 70s-
lower 80s expected across northern Lower.

Monday...A bit cooler and less humid conditions expected to
overspread northern Michigan for Memorial Day as things are expected
to dry out a bit.  Upper 60s-lower 70s expected for highs across
eastern Upper and mostly 70s across northern lower with some 80
degree highs south of an HTL-APN line.  Quiet for Monday night under
clear to partly cloudy skies and near seasonable lows (mostly 40s
and some lower 50s).

Extended Forecast (Tuesday through Friday)...Short wave energy in
the northern portion of the western split pattern begins to emerge
over the northern high plains Tuesday.  This will eventually bring
rain chances back to the area but we may be able to squeeze out
another dry day Tuesday before the rain threat increases.  Will
probably have to hold onto shower/thunderstorm chances into Friday.
Temperatures expected to be mostly above normal through Thursday
with hints of a cooling trend for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Humid airmass remains in place, prone to fog/stratus at times,
especially late at night/early in the morning. That isn/t much the
case out there today though, with mostly VFR conditions even with
some SHRA moving thru. Rain chances will go into a bit of a lull
this morning, then increase again this afternoon/evening, with a
few TSRA also possible. Cigs and vsbys will be mainly VFR, but
MVFR conditions will be possible early today and late tonight at
MBL/TVC/PLN.

Southerly winds thru the forecast, perhaps reaching 10-15kt at
times today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight.
Southerly flow will persist, but remain on the light side. Some
gusts to 20kt possible today into tonight, especially on Lake MI,
so will be choppy out there at times. Some fog is also a
possibility with humid air in place. Fog most likely in the waters
around eastern upper MI, where waters are coldest. Periodic
chances for showers will continue, with some thunder possible
again this afternoon/evening.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


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