Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270328
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
HAS PUSHED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS FINALLY MOVED
SOUTH OF MBL EARLIER IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FALLING BACK THRU
THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S...ON THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD 20S AND
PERHAPS A FEW TEENS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THRU THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN WINDS UP TO 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...KEYSOR



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