363
FXUS63 KAPX 030742
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
342 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today.

- A few showers/storms possible Friday afternoon/evening.

- Hot Saturday.

- Additional periods of showers/storms possible into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis over the west-central US...sandwiched between a
disjointed trough axis over the western US (northern stream
shortwave over the PacNW; southern stream, over SoCal/4
Corners)...and troughing across the eastern half of the continent
(upper low centered near James Bay, with shortwave trough axis and
attendant cold front stretching back to WI). Southern stream ridge
axis over the Gulf Coast into TX...keeping the Gulf largely closed
for business for northern Michigan`s purposes; however...nice plume
of moisture flowing northward out of Mexico into the SW US/TX. A bit
of moisture across the Great Lakes region, though running on the
normal side for APX per our 0z/03 sounding. Drier air mass to our
north in the wake of said cold front with dewpoints upstream in the
40s/50s; 850mb temps fall below 10C to our north. A few
showers/storms still trying to perk up ahead of said cold front and
PV maxima swinging through at this early hour with just enough
elevated instability present to keep things a little un-quiet across
northern Michigan for the time being.

High pressure builds into the region today as shortwave troughing
exits stage right early in the day, allowing this nebulous/weak
boundary to drop down into central MI this morning...with much drier
air working in to keep things quiet today, save for perhaps a
rogue/lingering shower near M-55 early. Tonight...upstream ridging
will begin to build into the area, allowing for much better return
flow for the Upper Midwest, setting up the potential for warmth
going into Independence Day and beyond.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Any lingering showers/storms today should be held primarily along
and south of M-55 through this morning. With increasingly dry air
mass working in...expect we will remain too stable for much, even
perhaps daytime cu. If PV maxima is a bit slower and moisture
hangs around a touch longer...not impossible some showers/storms
could bubble back up toward Saginaw Bay, particularly as winds
should remain light enough for development of lake breezes and
resultant convergence axes...though think winds could pick back up
again toward central Lower in the afternoon if a diurnal-heating-
driven low develops over southern MI. Low confidence in this,
though...and think most of the area will remain dry today. Dry
airmass should preclude the chances for WAA precip to sneak in down
the thickness gradient...but not impossible our western zones could
get scraped late tonight.

Potential for low RHS this afternoon... Not a ton of change in high
temps today vs yesterday, reaching generally into the upper 70s
and low/mid 80s (though some smoke rolling back in on NW flow
aloft could temper things a bit). Aggressive mixing yesterday
resulted in RHs generally in the 30-40 percent range (e.g., GLR
mixed out to a dewpoint of 44)...and today`s air mass should be much
drier...with expectation of Tds well into the lower 40s across the
interior (would not be surprised to see a few spots drop below that
where downsloping enhances drying; e.g., West Branch toward Glennie
and perhaps Wellston, too)...with RHs running much more in the 20-
30 percent range today. (Not the greatest thing going into a
campfire-and-fireworks/sparklers themed weekend...though at least
winds should remain on the lighter side overall.)

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Days 2-3 (Independence Day-Saturday)...Ridging continues to build
into the region Friday, with axis likely overhead Friday night into
Saturday...as a shortwave trough (remnants of current SoCal
troughing) ejects up the flow into the northern Plains. Will be
looking for potential for warmth, but also potential for active
weather, through the start of the holiday weekend.

Think some pop-up showers and storms will be possible Friday
afternoon/evening, especially near and west of I-75 Friday
afternoon/evening, as an increasingly unstable air mass advects into
the region with the warm front making its way through. Just enough
deep-layer shear could be present to add a bit better organization
to storms, though this idea is lower probability attm. Potential
negative factor for convection is the antecedent dry air from today,
as it could slow moistening and subsequent instability.
Additionally, if we do end up getting some convective debris clouds
in here late tonight, not impossible this could limit diurnal
heating for destabilization as well. Currently...signals for storms
look best Friday afternoon into Friday evening, perhaps into the
overnight.

Hot weather looks to return Saturday as we hang out beneath the warm
sector...with highs currently expected to reach into the 90s again.
Combined with better moisture, think heat indices could make a run
at 100 degrees again, particularly across NE Lower where downsloping
should enhance high temperatures. This should be a relatively short
lived stretch of heat, though, with a cold front on our doorstep
Saturday night...which should bring another round of showers/storms
and perhaps the potential for heavy rain.

Days 4-5 (Sunday-Monday)...Much more zonal-looking pattern expected
for Sunday into Monday as another couple shortwaves make their way
into the region to wrap up the holiday weekend...setting up
potential for additional rounds of active weather right on into
Monday night...with signals for another trough axis to try to
approach from the northwest.

Days 6-7 Outlook (Tuesday-Wednesday)...Quite a bit of uncertainty
for last part of the forecast period...as guidance remains in
disagreement over strength/depth and timing of a potential
disturbance Monday night into Wednesday. Either way...more zonal
signals suggest temps should remain a little more on the seasonable
side going into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Any -SHRA and -TSRA will continue to shift east, leaving quiet
conditions in its wake. Expect VFR through the period for most,
exception being MBL through the morning with BR/FG at times.
Currently have TEMPO for 1 SM VIS, but could bounce between 1/2 and
1 SM or so. Skies will be mainly clear today and tonight. Winds
northwest on Thursday, at about 10 KTs on average.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JLD