000
FXUS63 KAPX 030308
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WERE DROPPING FAST DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, AS THEY COULD
DROP A LITTLE MORE, JUST BEFORE THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND EVEN RAISE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BEST IDEA SO FAR IS THAT MOST TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BETWEEN -5F AND +5F, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND
-10F AT WORST CASE. TIMING OF THE SNOW AND CLOUDS STILL LOOKS
GOOD, SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...CLEAR EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1036MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MID AFTERNOON AS PRETTY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  WARM
ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME.  MAY EVEN SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MAY ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW TO ASSIST WITH THIS PROCESS.  SO
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING RIGHT AROUND THE
MORNING DRIVE TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING...
WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS (MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TRY TO REFLECT THAT IDEA
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE.  THINK LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SHOULD WORK FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS SINKING BRIEFLY NEAR ZERO BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT /AND MAYBE LAST?/
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED
AROUND OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM.  FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DETAILS: SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER FORCING ENHANCED BY
160+ KNOT UPPER JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.  NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF ANY
DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION.  STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  NOTICEABLE PACIFIC OCEAN CONNECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ WITH PWATS OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES
AND MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 3-4 G/KG.  WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT SNOW RATIO/S LOWER /WETTER/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE MORNING...PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INSTABILITY
ALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE DRY SLOT.  BEST
OMEGA FOCUSED WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN BEST
DENDRITES WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  OVERALL...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS /2-3 INCHES/ OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA WHERE SNOW RATIO/S WILL BE LOWER AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING STRIPS
OUT LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.  THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS /ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LAKE
ICE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY/.   ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT.  TEMPERATURE-WISE...BACK TO THE ICE BOX FOR
MID WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S TO EVEN LOW 30S AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. LOOKS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO FAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WON`T BE BELOW VFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN AFFECTING MBL FIRST
AROUND 11Z WITH THE TVC SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON UNTIL AROUND 00Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL