000
FXUS63 KAPX 251634
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001MB CLIPPER LOWER ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER...AND A 1023MB HIGHER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WITHIN A CHILLY SUB-ZERO AIR MASS SURROUNDING THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING AROUND THE
NORTH/EAST QUADRANTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SURFACE LOW...WHILE
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM THE HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS
MOSTLY CLEARED SKIES OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND A
FEW SHARDS OF LAKE HURON CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  12Z
APX SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH A SCANT 0.05 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER/
925MB OF -16C.

CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL STICK AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY WHICH WILL TEND
TO PUSH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BANDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE TOWARD NORTHEAST LOWER (AND PROBABLY SOME FLURRIES AS WELL).
BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF WEATHER ISSUES THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN THE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
WITH A FEW LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

COLD/STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CHURNS ITS WAY
THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH OF MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER
THE STRENGTHEN RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NW...WITH DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN GRADUALLY SETTLING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED UNDER THE NRN THIRD OF OUR CWA...BUT
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.
STRENGTHENING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH ONGOING LOW LEVEL CAA HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES. STILL...LATEST IR 3.9U
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THRU TONIGHT...SERVING TO
GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS OF LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. LOW LAKE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE DAY...BUT LAKE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY
THANKS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE TEENS.

STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. DEVELOPING
LAND BREEZES WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDINESS BACK
OVER LAKE HURON...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPS THANK TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO ALMOST ALWAYS YIELDS A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPS. MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT. SHORELINE LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD...FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS
CERTAINLY THERE FOR COLDER LOCALIZED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS THAT ARE OPEN AND LOW-LYING. STAY WARM!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY AND THE MILDER MIDDLE
20S TO NEAR 30 TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUED RIDGING WEDNESDAY IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM AN INCOMING TROUGH FROM
THE WEST. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN COMBINATION WITH A BIT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY (WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION IN THE
HWO...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING TOO OUTLANDISH). A DEEPER
TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY
BRINGING FRIGID AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTERED OUT TODAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES OVERHEAD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR