Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
652 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

High impact weather potential: nearing red flag conditions ne lower
MI this afternoon. A few stronger t-storms eastern upper MI this
afternoon, nw lower this evening.

Long stretch of quiet wx coming to a close. Probably. Maybe.

500mb ridge axis will finally get shoved aside by a couple of weak
impulses pushing into it. As a result, a weak cold front will cross
northern MI this evening and early overnight. Brief window for
moistening and destabilization will be seen ahead of the front,
contributing to potential showers and t-storms.

Today...plenty of sunshine this morning, with some cirrus wafting
into northwest/western sections. As high pressure gets pushed out of
the eastern lakes into the Ohio Valley, sw low-level will increase.
That will start to bring humidity levels up, but you have to look a
ways upstream to see 50+f dew points. As is typical here, it will
probably take the arrival of an initial (decaying) MCS to finally
bring dew points drastically higher. Otherwise, low or even mid 80s
temps and dew points of 48-50f are not going to result in any mlcape
instability of note, as the deeper airmass is just too warm/dry.
There are two exceptions to the above. One is eastern upper, which
will reach the east edge of the deeper moisture plume to our west
before anyone else. Sct pops in order there this afternoon. The
other is a small part of nw lower, mainly near and w of M-37, which
sees the same happen toward early evening. Otherwise, will go with a
dry forecast. Might be some potential for a few stronger storms to
approach western Chip/Mack, where 0-6km bulk shear is 40-45kt and
mlcape is potentially in the high triple digits just to the west.

Max temps on the toasty side, mid 70s (eastern upper) to mid 80s
most common.

Fire wx...current forecast takes winds/RH right to the edge of red
flag criteria in NE lower. Gave serious consideration to upgrading
right now, thinking that is /close enough/ given our lengthy dry
spell. But a conference call has already been set up with land
management agencies later this morning to determine fire wx
headlines today, and will defer until then.

Tonight...main window for precip for most of the forecast area is
this evening/early overnight. Brief window of falling heights/cooling
temps aloft, and oncoming cold front at the surface, will help. But
overall moisture is still somewhat lacking, and neither synoptic-
scale forcing mechanisms nor convective instability are impressive
here. Some manner of MCS is likely get going late this
afternoon/early this evening in northern WI/western upper MI, and
then move ESE. Certainly potential, in a more sheared/unstable
airmass upstream, for this to become reasonably well organized. But
then it will have to cross a cold Lake MI and enter a much less
unstable regime here. Nam portrays a narrow 1k mlcape plume folding
over into nw and central lower mi tonight. Even this is likely
overstated due to Nam propensity to overstate low-level moisture and
thus instability. So anticipate inbound MCS to weaken before and as
it arrives. But will mention a few stronger storms possible this
evening/early overnight in nw lower MI. Uncertainty as to precise
convective evolution precludes a likely pop at this time, will keep
pops in the sct category. Will dry out areas north of M-32 after 2
am as cold front settles southward, though cloud cover will still
trend toward mostly cloudy even post-frontal.

Min temps in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

...Warm and showery right into the long holiday weekend...

The pattern over the next several days looks unsettled at times with
higher humidity levels and decent chances for rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. This will be the result of several pieces of energy
ejecting out of a broad long wave trough which will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. Although the finer
details remain uncertain, there still could be some strong to severe
storms across northern Michigan later Wednesday night into Thursday
as a wing of forcing tracks across the region followed by more
energy/moisture advection late Friday all the way into Saturday. The
best shot for any stronger storms to form looks like it`s over
northeast lower Michigan during Thursday and Friday afternoons when
models are generating the most cape (1500-2500 J/Kg of 0-1 km ML
Cape and little convective inhibition). Wind fields are decent but
not too strong with 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots (strongest
north). Moisture is on the increase with PW/s increasing to between
1.25 and 1.50 inches so we could get some heavy rainers.
Generally speaking, expect diurnally driven showers and storms to
fire with some potential for a few severe storms. Temperatures
through the period are still expected to run a few degrees above
normal for late May.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR for most of the TAF period. TSRA risk this evening MBL/TVC.

A weak cold front will move into northern MI tonight. Southwest
winds will increase a bit ahead of the front, bringing somewhat
more humid air into the region. That will contribute to SHRA/TSRA
development, mainly this evening/early overnight. Best chance for
TSRA will be at TVC/MBL, and would not rule out brief sharp
reductions to cigs/vsbys if a TSRA scores a direct hit.
However, for now that chance is not high enough to include harsh
reductions. Lower cigs will bleed in the from the north behind the
front late tonight, and anticipate mvfr to ifr cigs arriving very
late at PLN/APN.

Southwest winds today...might gust to around 20kt at times. Winds
going light northerly tonight.


Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

A sw breeze will be seen today, in advance of a weak cold front
that crosses the region tonight. Some concerns that winds/waves
could approach small craft criteria around northern lower in
particular, with a long fetch on Lake MI and some offshore
gustiness this afternoon on Lake Huron. But for now, will keep
winds/waves just below advisory levels. A brief period of
northerly flow late tonight, with winds continuing to the e and se
by late Weds.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ017-018-



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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