Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






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